Staying up late Thursday night might be worth it for college hoops fans, as one of the best games of the day tips off at 11 p.m. ET.
The Utah Utes (12-5) head to Pauley Pavillion to face the No. 7 UCLA Bruins (14-2) in a quality Pac-12 conference game that carries plenty of intrigue.
Will Mick Cronin’s squad grab its 12th straight victory, or will Utah have a trick up its sleeve?
Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Utah vs. UCLA on Thursday, January 12 to find out.
Utah vs UCLA best odds
Utah vs UCLA picks and predictions
UCLA is the only unbeaten team in Pac-12 play at 5-0, although the Bruins only barely survived their last game. After holding a 44-26 halftime lead over crosstown rival USC, the Bruins watched their 18-point lead disintegrate and only narrowly pulled off the 60-58 victory. It was a rare sign of mortality for the No. 7 team in the country, and an offense that mustered just 12 points in the final 19:45 of the second half will now look to get right in a game against a very tough Utah defense.
Utah is 11-6 to the Under this season while locking down on the defensive side of things. Craig Smith’s team checks in at 19th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric while limiting teams to just 48% shooting from the field (36th nationally) and 37% from 3-point range (60th).
This should be a somewhat low-scoring game between the two best defenses in the Pac-12. Utah is allowing just 61.5 ppg (23rd) while UCLA surrenders just 60.8 ppg (20th). I don’t see much reason to expect an offensive explosion from either side, which has me eyeing either the underdog or the Under as my Best Bet for this matchup.
This is a difficult spot for Utah considering it’s coming off a tough loss to Oregon and is now being asked to bounce back on the road against a Top-10 team in the country. Not only is UCLA a great team, it’s also nearly impossible to beat the Bruins at Pauley Pavillion, where they are 9-0 this season.
That being said, I’m inclined to look at the Utes given the bloated spread, sitting at +12.5 as of writing. The Utes are 10-7 ATS this season and have been profitable on the road, going 4-1 ATS in their last five away games. They’ve thrived as the underdog, going 4-0 when catching points this season.
UCLA’s offense completely stalled out a game ago, and the Bruins are still expected to be without freshman Amari Bailey (9.5 ppg) for Thursday’s contest. The Utes have locked down defensively this season and have been playing better basketball than most people outside of the West Coast probably realize, so I think they’re undervalued in this spot.
My best bet: Utah +12.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
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Utah vs UCLA spread analysis
UCLA resides between a -11.5 and -12.5 favorite as of Thursday morning, depending where you look.
The Bruins have been a profitable 9-7 ATS this year while continuing to field winning teams under Cronin. Familiar faces Jaime Jaquez (16.9 ppg) and Tyger Campbell (13.3 ppg) lead the charge yet again, although the emergence of Jaylen Clark has arguably been the story of the year thus far for the Bruins. Clark has emerged as a potential Pac-12 Player of the Year candidate while averaging 14.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 2.6 steals per game. David Singleton (10.7 ppg) is the fourth player to average double figures, while freshman forward Adem Bona has been crucial for a team lacking many options in the frontcourt.
Utah is led by Branden Carlson’s 15.6 ppg, while three other players average double figures: Gabe Madsen, Lazar Stefanovic, and Marco Anthony. One area that the Utes will have an advantage will be on the glass, where they rank fourth nationally by grabbing an astounding 41.3 boards per game. UCLA is great at many things, but rebounding isn’t one of them — it ranks 204th nationally while grabbing 35.2 rebounds per game. The Bruins’ lack of height and frontcourt depth could emerge as a concern.
Utah vs UCLA Over/Under analysis
The total is set at 134.5 for this matchup. As alluded to earlier, I’m eyeing the Under as my preferred play if targeting the total. Allow me to explain.
UCLA is by all means an elite defensive team, checking in at ninth in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. The Bruins like to slow the ball down on offense, which is understandable considering the strength of the defense and the tight rotation. Cronin plays only six players more than 12 minutes per game, and one of those is Bailey — who remains out with a foot injury. With Bailey still on the shelf and Cronin running a thin rotation, this offense should continue to operate at a slow tempo while looking to take care of the ball and keep its star players in the game for extended playing time.
Utah ranks fourth nationally in opponents’ field goal percentage (36.5%), forcing difficult shots. What’s particularly enticing about the Utes’ numbers is that they’ve been nearly equally impressive at defending shots both inside and outside the arc. They rank ninth in 2-point defense (42.2%) and are fourth in 3-point defense (26.8%), ranking Top 10 in both areas.
Both teams find their identity on the defensive side of the ball, and there’s reason to expect points to be hard to come by in this matchup.
Utah vs UCLA betting trend to know
UCLA is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Utah vs. Utah State.
Utah vs UCLA game info
| Location: | Pauley Pavilion, Los Angeles, California |
| Date: | Thursday, January 12, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 11:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | PAC-12 Network |
