Utah vs USC Odds, Picks and Predictions: How Low Can You Go?

A game that could be critical in the trajectory for both teams in the Pac-12 standings goes down Saturday night as Utah (12-6) heads to the Galen Center to face USC (12-5).

A loss to UCLA Thursday night dropped Utah to third place in the Pac-12 standings at 5-2. USC’s win over Colorado that same night vaulted them to a tie for fourth at 4-2. 

Find out more in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Utah vs. USC Trojans on January 14. 

Utah vs USC best odds

Utah vs USC picks and predictions

If you bet the Under in every Utah game this season, you’d have made a pretty penny. The Utes are 12-6 to the Under this season with a clear identity under head coach Craig Smith that involves playing stingy defense.

Utah is surrendering just 61.8 ppg, which ranks 26th in the nation. The Utes excel in forcing difficult looks from opponents on every area of the court, holding teams to 37.1% from the field (fourth nationally) and 27.3% from behind the arc (seventh). KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric lists Utah at 19th. 

The Utes have lost two straight games heading into Saturday’s showdown at the Galen Center, falling 70-60 to Oregon at home and 68-49 to UCLA on the road. One can’t blame the Utes too much for Thursday’s loss to a tough UCLA team that has won 12 straight games, especially considering star big man Branden Carlson was announced out due to illness just minutes before tipoff. 

Carlson is currently considered questionable for tonight's contest. He leads the team in scoring (15.6 ppg) and rebounding (7.4) and is second in the Pac-12 in blocks per game (2.1), so his loss would obviously be significant. 

USC had lost two straight before getting back in the win column with a 68-61 victory over Colorado on Thursday. It wasn’t the Trojans’ best performance, as the Buffaloes coughed up 22 turnovers yet still rallied back to grab a second-half lead and make the game far closer than it should’ve been. 

The Trojans shoot 45.9% from the field (116th) but just 31.2% from behind the arc (311th). Boogie Ellis (15.6 ppg) and Drew Peterson (13.8 ppg) are two productive guards, but the team is lacking other impact offensive contributors behind their two star players. They check in at 77th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency. 

Both teams are better on defense than they are on offense. I’ll be taking the Under as my best bet for Saturday’s showdown, and I like the play regardless of whether or not Carlson appears on the floor. 

My best bet: Under 135.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Utah vs USC spread analysis

This handicap is rather tough at this juncture as we have no update on Carlson’s status. He’s by far Utah’s best player and is the focal point of the offense and key cog down low on defense. He had flu-like symptoms in warmups on Thursday and was described as “wanting to play” , but was ultimately unable to do so.

Either way, it’d be hard for me to go against USC in this spot. The Trojans left a lot of points on the board against Colorado and played what I would consider a subpar game, yet they still managed to come away with the win and cover against the spread. They now face a Utah team that is similar to Colorado in many ways. The spread is very similar for tonight's game, as it was -3.5 against the Buffaloes and is now -4.5 against the Utes. 

USC was the right play on Thursday night, and I believe they’re the proper wager again on Saturday against a Utah team that lacks offensive firepower (115th in adjusted offensive efficiency). If the Trojans play their A-game — which isn’t a sure thing considering recent results — they will win this game by a comfortable margin.

Considering USC played far below that level two days ago and still covered against a comparable team to Saturday’s opponent, the home team is my preferred side.  

Utah vs USC Over/Under analysis

I would recommend playing the Under down to 133.5.

Utah ranks just 167th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric, and that number will likely only continue to drop in conference play, where the Utes will look to win games by shutting things down on defense and taking care of the ball on offense. When they hit the road, their games tended to be low-scoring. 

USC doesn’t play with any special pace either, checking in at 155th in adjusted tempo. The Trojans are 9-8 to the Under this season.

This handicap is really more about Utah than it is about USC. An offensive explosion for the Utes would be very surprising on the road against a quality conference opponent that has an above-average defense. The Trojans allow just 65.9 ppg and limit opponents to 38.2% from the field (14th).

Utah vs USC betting trend to know

Utah is 5-1 to the Under in its last six road games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Utah vs. Utah State.

Utah vs USC game info

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