The Vanderbilt Commodores have won two straight games in the NIT, knocking off Belmont in Round 1 before squeaking past Dayton by a single basket on Sunday, and will now head out on the road to take on the Xavier Musketeers tonight in the quarterfinals.
Meanwhile, Xavier is coming off an impressive 72-56 victory over the Florida Gators to reach this stage of the tournament.
Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for the NIT quarterfinals matchup between the Vanderbilt Commodores and the Xavier Musketeers.
Vanderbilt vs Xavier odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Xavier opened as a -3.5 point favorite but is starting to increase to -4 at some outlets. Meanwhile, the total has dropped from 143.5 to as low as 141 at a couple of outlets by the time of this writing.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Vanderbilt vs Xavier predictions
Predictions made on 3/22/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the NIT Tournament, here are two of the best bonuses available:
USA: New users can get two risk-free bets (up to $2,000) by signing up at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
Canada: Bet $1, get $100 in free bets when you sign up with BetVictor! Sign Up Now
Vanderbilt vs Xavier game info
• Location: Cintas Center, Cincinnati, OH
• Date: Tuesday, March 22, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Vanderbilt vs Xavier betting preview
Injuries
Vanderbilt: Trey Thomas G (Questionable).
Xavier: Paul Scruggs G (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 6-0 in Commodores' last six road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Find more NCAA betting trends for Vanderbilt vs. Xavier.
Vanderbilt vs Xavier picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Vanderbilt Commodores aren’t one of the quickest teams in the nation but they will quickly chuck up threes when given the opportunity. Vanderbilt is shooting 34% from downtown but just 49.5% from inside the arc on the season. When Vanderbilt isn’t shooting threes, the Commodores are usually earning some points at the charity stripe. However, the Commodores are only shooting 69.6% from the foul line this season, which is a below-average number.
Vanderbilt has also turned the ball over 19% of the time and while Xavier isn’t the biggest threat to earn turnovers, the Commodores will need to be careful with the ball, especially on the road.
Xavier is holding opponents to 31.8% from deep and 48.2% from inside the arc while also limiting fouls and offensive rebounding. Vanderbilt has its work cut out for it knowing that Xavier has allowed just 25.8% offensive rebounds and is only giving up 16.3% of total points per game from the foul line.
On the other hand, Xavier, like Vanderbilt, is earning plenty of points at the foul line this season. Vanderbilt, unlike Xavier, fouls at a much higher rate and that should mean that Xavier will get more attempts from the line.
While Xavier doesn’t shoot great from the foul line either, the Musketeers are marginally better than the Commodores, hitting 70.3% of foul shots this year.
Vanderbilt has held opponents to 30% from deep and 50.4% from inside the arc. The Commodores have also earned 20.9% turnovers per game. Ultimately, Xavier has limited turnovers to 16.7% this season and continues to score at a solid pace inside, shooting 51.7%.
As long as Xavier continues to protect the basketball and works the ball inside to get good looks, the Musketeers should be able to win tonight’s game and cover the spread.
Prediction: Xavier -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
No one will be surprised when both teams find their way to the line throughout the game. Anytime you can get points on the board with the time stopped, it’s always a good thing if you’re backing the Over.
The Commodores are currently scoring 36.6% of points per game from deep this season and they score just 42.1% of points per game from inside the arc. The three-point shot matters and while Xavier has defended it well, there’s a good chance Vanderbilt continues to fire away from long range.
On the other hand, Xavier won’t be shooting a bunch of threes but should have its way down low, knowing that the areas of weakness for Vanderbilt are fouls and defending inside.
I’m grabbing the Over in this matchup.
Prediction: Over 142.5 (-110)
Best bet
Overall, Xavier is better on the defensive glass and has kept fouling to a minimum throughout the season.
You can’t say the same about Vanderbilt. The Commodores foul at a very high rate and are below-average defending the inside.
What makes Vanderbilt solid defensively is its perimeter defense, where the team allows 30% from the field. However, Xavier works inside much more frequently and won’t take a whole lot of threes.
Once Xavier earns more second chances, keeps the turnovers down, and dominates inside, the Musketeers will walk away with the quarterfinals win.
Pick: Xavier -3.5 (-110)
Did you know that if you parlayed our Vanderbilt vs. Xavier picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?
Use our college basketball parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
