It's a classic ACC contest tonight when Virginia travels to Coral Gables to face Miami.
This is a massive game for both teams. Miami entered this season after a terrific Elite Eight tournament run and will enter this matchup as a Top-25 team. The Hurricanes have won seven straight games since they were blasted by Maryland in November.
Virginia remains one of the best teams in the country. Though it dropped its second game of the year in its previous game, it had won seven straight games before taking that loss. With the Cavs coming off a loss and the Canes as hot as anyone, it should make for a fantastic game tonight.
What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Virginia vs. Miami.
Virginia vs Miami best odds
Virginia vs Miami picks and predictions
Isaiah Wong has struggled against Virginia throughout an impressive and lengthy Miami career. He's scored 26 points in four career games on less than 24% shooting. He has been shut down, in large part due to Reece Beekman's individual defense.
Wong comes into this matchup amid a nice stretch. He scored over 20 points in three straight games, but it has come against some awful defenses. That's why you're getting a good number on him against a defense he struggles against regularly.
Wong gets over 78% of his offense from pick-and-roll or isolation sets. That's the two best attributes of the Virginia defense. Beekman has drawn the primary guarding responsibilities of Wong over their past four matchups. This season he has graded out as one of the best pick-and-roll defenders in the country, sitting in the Top-7 percentile of college basketball. In addition to that, he's been a high-end isolation defender throughout his career.
The path for Miami to win tonight isn't through Wong, and I expect Miami to gameplan as such.
My best bet: Isaiah Wong Under 13.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)
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Virginia vs Miami spread analysis
I expect Virginia to win this game. This figures to be a grind-out game where points are at an absolute premium, and those are just the games the Cavs have historically found ways to win.
I do have concerns about Beekman's health. He's the best isolation scorer for Virginia, and it'll need that against Miami, but he's also been hampered by an ankle injury over the last week.
Virginia has taken some sharp action since this line opened. The moneyline moved 20 cents as I wrote this article. In addition, the spread opened with Virginia favored by 1.5 points, which is all the way out to 4.
Virginia vs Miami Over/Under analysis
It's Under or nothing in this matchup.
I projected a total of 134, which is a touch higher than the number out there, but my handicap says otherwise.
The pack line defense of Virginia is essentially built to stop what Miami does. The Hurricanes rely a lot on ball creation off the dribble and isolation scoring. You won't get that against Virginia. It's an elite defensive unit but more critical to this matchup, it's allowing just .622 points per possession on isolation sets.
On the other side of the ball, I expect Miami to do an excellent job of slowing down Virginia. It’s been an underrated defensive unit throughout the season, and if Beekman isn't at full strength, Virginia's offense will struggle to score.
Virginia vs Miami betting trend to know
The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams. Find more College basketball betting trends for Virginia vs. Miami.
Virginia vs Miami game info
| Location: | Watsco Center, Coral Gables, FL |
| Date: | Tuesday, December 20, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ACC Network |
