The Bradley Braves host the Chattanooga Mocs in the quarterfinals of the 2025 National Invitational Tournament tonight.
Early money has come in on the Over, shifting the total from 150.5 to 153.5, and my Chattanooga vs. Bradley predictions are following the line movement.
Here are my free college basketball picks for this NIT showdown on March 25, with tipoff at 6 p.m. ET.
Who will win Chattanooga vs Bradley?
Both teams shoot the ball extremely well, but Bradley is significantly better on defense. The Braves are 106th in the country in adjusted defense per KenPom while Chattanooga is just 236th.
KenPom and Haslametrics are projecting a 77-72 victory for Bradley, while Bart Torvik has set the gap even wider at 80-73. This should be a close game, but with the Braves having home-court advantage and boasting the edge on defense, they'll win.
Chattanooga vs Bradley prediction
My best bet: Over 153.5 (-110 at bet365)
The Chattanooga Mocs are red hot, having gone 14-1 straight up and 12-3 against the spread in their last 15 games. Their offense has been a big reason for that, with the Mocs averaging 84.5 points per game since the start of February.
Chattanooga's offense has excellent ball movement (21st in the country in assists per field goal), limits turnovers (48th in turnover rate), and shoots 58.1% inside the arc — the eighth-best mark in Div 1. That's the sort of attack that can score on the road.
While the Bradley Braves are better on defense than Chattanooga, they have flaws. The Braves are just 351st at allowing high-quality threes per ShotQualityBets, 324th at defending off-ball screens, and 272nd against the pick and roll.
The Mocs are in the Top 10 of efficiency at running the pick-and-roll and off-ball screens, and they shoot 36.8% from deep. That said, the Mocs struggle on defense and will have their hands full with a Bradley squad that shoots lights out.
Bradley is second in the country in 3-point percentage (39.8%) while the Mocs are 274th in 3-point defense (35.3%). While the Braves don't attack the basket at a high frequency, they are highly efficient when they get there, shooting 67.9% at the rim.
That inside-out attack will shred a Mocs D that sits outside the Top 200 in points per possession allowed.
Chattanooga vs Bradley same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 153.5
Bradley moneyline
Race to 20 points - Bradley
The Braves have been getting off to fast starts at home where they have an average first-half scoring margin of +7.2 ppg. Expect their offense to fire on all cylinders and get out to an early lead before holding on for the win.
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Chattanooga vs Bradley odds
Chattanooga vs Bradley live odds
Chattanooga vs Bradley opening odds
- Spread: Chattanooga +4 | Bradley -4
- Moneyline: Chattanooga +155 | Bradley -185
- Over/Under: Over 150.5 | Under 150.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Chattanooga vs Bradley betting trend to know
The Over is 10-3 in Chattanooga's last 13 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Chattanooga vs. Bradley.
How to watch Chattanooga vs Bradley
| Location | Carver Arena, Peoria, IL |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-25-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Chattanooga vs Bradley key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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