The West Virginia Mountaineers face off against the Houston Cougars in NCAA basketball action tonight.
The Cougars are massive 18.5-point home favorites but my West Virginia vs. Houston predictions expect their offense to look shaky.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for the Big 12 clash on Wednesday, January 15.
West Virginia vs Houston prediction
My best bet
Houston team total Under 70.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Houston Cougars are once again an elite defensive team under Kelvin Sampson. The Cougars are first in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency but are also 360th in adjusted tempo and that, combined with inconsistent shooting, has led to some low-scoring games from this offense.
The team total for the Cougars is 70.5 and they've gone below that number in five of their last 10 games. And none of the teams that held them below that number are as good defensively or play at a slower pace than the West Virginia Mountaineers, who are 21st in adjusted defense and 310th in adjusted tempo
WVU has undergone a massive defensive turnaround under new head coach Darian DeVries. The Mountaineers are 10th in the country in 3-point defense (28.1%) and should limit a Houston squad that shoots a sizzling 41.5% from deep.
The Cougars are significantly worse inside the arc, ranking 285th in 2-point percentage (48.6%) while the Mountaineers are 14th in opponent 2PT% (44.2%). WVU also does a terrific job of preventing fastbreak opportunities sitting 360th in opponent transition frequency per ShotQuality Bets.
The Mountaineers offense has dropped off since losing Tucker DeVries to an injury in early December, but they've tightened up on D. They've allowed fewer than 62 points in six of their last eight games, which includes a contest where they held Kansas to 61 points on 39 FG% at Allen Fieldhouse.
West Virginia vs Houston same-game parlay (SGP)
Houston team total Under 70.5
West Virginia +18.5
Milos Uzan Under 3.5 rebounds
Houston has won eight games in a row but this spread is too wide against a WVU squad that is 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 contests. The Mountaineers have pulled off upset wins against Kansas, Gonzaga, and Arizona, and the KenPom model has them losing this game by 14 points with Bart Torvik projecting a 13-point loss.
Houston guard Milos Uzan has pulled down fewer than 2.5 boards in nine of his last 11 contests. In what should be a low-possession game with fewer rebounding opportunities tonight, I don't see him eclipsing this number.
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West Virginia vs Houston odds
West Virginia vs Houston live odds
West Virginia vs Houston opening odds
- Spread: West Virginia +15.5 | Houston -15.5
- Moneyline: West Virginia +1000 | Houston -2000
- Over/Under: Over 122.5 | Under 122.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
West Virginia vs Houston betting trend to know
The Under is 6-2 in West Virginia's last eight games. Find more college basketball betting trends for West Virginia vs. Houston.
How to watch West Virginia vs Houston
| Location: | Fertitta Center, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, 1-15-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
West Virginia vs Houston key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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