Despite all the new faces in the Big Ten this season, Saturday’s semifinal boils down to a classic conference rivalry between the Wisconsin Badgers and Michigan State Spartans.
Both teams turned heads with their quarterfinal wins, but advanced with very different methods. The Badgers buried UCLA under a barrage of 3-pointers while the Spartans’ defense choked out a red-hot Oregon squad in the second half.
I give the nod to defense and a streaking MSU squad that’s making the NCAA selection committee think long and hard about a No. 1 seed.
Here are my best Wisconsin vs Michigan State predictions and college basketball picks for March 15.
Who will win Wisconsin vs Michigan State?
The Spartans are the favorites in this semifinal showdown, with outright odds giving them as high as a 64% implied win probability. Although many predictive models lean toward the Badgers in this game. I’m banking on MSU to advance.
Wisconsin vs Michigan State prediction
My best bet: Michigan State moneyline (-165 at bet365)
The early line on this semifinal was as short as Michigan State Spartans -1.5 and that quickly swelled, with the market jumping to -3.5 before buyback on the Wisconsin Badgers slimmed the spread to MSU -3. I’m going to keep it simple and take the Spartans on the moneyline.
The Badgers will be playing their third game in three days on Saturday afternoon but did get the benefit of resting their starters in Friday’s one-sided win over UCLA. Wisconsin exploded out of the gate and quickly put space between themselves and the Bruins, thanks to an incredible 19-for-32 finish from beyond the arc.
Getting those open looks from outside will be much harder to come by against Michigan State. The Green and White are the No. 5 defense in the land, with emphasis on protecting the perimeter. The Spartans allow foes just 27.8% success from distance – the second lowest 3-point percentage in the country.
Even if the Badgers do knock down their share of triples (which I assume they will), Michigan State is more than capable of countering. During the course of their eight-game winning streak, the Spartans have blossomed as an outside shooting team.
Michigan State is shooting 36% from deep and averaging 7.8 3-pointers over its last six games, including a 7-for-15 day from beyond the arc in the win over the Ducks on Friday. That combo of “Three and D” is a proven formula for postseason victories.
Hitting from outside is a big reason why MSU won the last meeting with Wisconsin on March 2, earning a 71-62 victory with a strong second-half effort on both ends of the floor.
The Spartans went 9 of 27 from distance while clamping down on UW, giving up just five triples on 32 attempts versus a team averages 10 makes from downtown on the season. The Badgers are also a very good defensive team (No. 3 in the Big Ten) but can’t win on defense alone, needing those long-range looks to go down.
Wisconsin went 8 of 25 from 3-point range (32%) against Northwestern in Round 2 on Thursday and couldn’t pull away from a scrappy Wildcats team. Yesterday’s win over UCLA didn’t stand out to me either, with a warmed-up Wisconsin side pouncing on a Bruins team that has been sitting idle for almost a week.
The Spartans, on the other hand, smoked a streaking Oregon team (ranked No. 23 in the country) on both ends of the floor and has constantly taken down top-tier opponents during their winning run. Michigan State’s defense, depth, and now dangerous perimeter play is pushing MSU well beyond the rest of the Big Ten.
Game models are split on which team advances to the tournament final. All call for a very close game, with margins as slim as one point. That’s why I’m siding with the moneyline price. The Spartans could win this one by a little or a lot.
Wisconsin vs Michigan State same-game parlay (SGP)
Michigan State moneyline
Jaden Akins 10+ points
Jaxon Kohler 7+ rebounds
Michigan State will make life hard on Wisconsin from deep, grabbing misses and torching the Badgers in transition.
Jaden Akins has scored double digits in 12 of his last 14 games, including 19 points versus Wisconsin earlier this month. Player projections call for another 10+ outing.
Kohler is forecasted for as many as nine rebounds today. He had 16 rebounds against Wisconsin in the first meeting.
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Wisconsin vs Michigan State odds
Wisconsin vs Michigan State live odds
Wisconsin vs Michigan State opening odds
- Spread: Wisconsin +2.5 | Michigan State -2.5
- Moneyline: Wisconsin +123 | Michigan State -144
- Over/Under: Over 144.5 | Under 144.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Wisconsin vs Michigan State betting trend to know
Michigan State has won outright on the moneyline in 28 of its last 35 games (+17.20 Units/2% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Michigan State.
How to watch Wisconsin vs Michigan State
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Saturday, 3-15-2025 |
| Tip-off | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Big Ten Network |
Wisconsin vs Michigan State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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