Wisconsin vs Ohio State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Buckeyes Keep Tournament Dreams Alive

The Big Ten can be described only as a mess. Most of that crowded chaos thrives in the conference’s top half, and in a twist, that did not include either the Ohio State Buckeyes or the Wisconsin Badgers this season. For the first time in 25 years, neither team will be making the NCAA tournament barring a surprising run this week in Chicago.

If either the Buckeyes or the Badgers want to pull off that shock, it will start tonight with a victory in what should be a close contest.

Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for Ohio State vs. Wisconsin on March 8.

Wisconsin vs Ohio State best odds

Wisconsin vs Ohio State picks and predictions

We all have faults, we all make mistakes. No one on this mortal coil is perfect. For example, back in August I placed a small bet on Ohio State winning the NCAA tournament at 100-to-1 odds. Acknowledging that mistake is important. Owning my faults lessens their weight.

And now that I have identified that hope as delusional, do not associate it with this coming handicap, one which will still lean toward the Buckeyes. Expecting a win in the first round of the conference tournament does not mean there remains any hopes of cashing that ticket stashed away in my lockbox.

It is just expecting a win in the first round of the conference tournament. Frankly, that is a relatively low bar to clear, particularly for a team with as much talent as Ohio State.

That has been the confounding part of this season. The Buckeyes climbed into Ken Pomeroy’s Top 10 as Big Ten play began in earnest. In a competitive conference, Ohio State was still picked to finish in the Top 6 in the preseason media poll.

It pushed Purdue to the limit in early January, that two-point loss dropping OSU to 10-4 but hardly dooming Buckeyes’ optimism. Then, the bottom fell out. After winning their first two conference games, they would win just one of their next 15.

Instead, the Buckeyes fell, and fell, and fell. Until 10 days ago.

Again, the delineation point was a loss to Purdue. This time, it happened to be a 27-point shellacking on Feb. 19. Ohio State lost its next game, both straight up and against the spread, but it was at least competitive. And since then, the Buckeyes have gone 3-0 ATS and 2-1 outright.

That may be a small sample size, but when a team with a presumed first-round draft pick in wing Brice Sensabaugh opens conference play 2-15 ATS, a 3-0 spurt to close the season stands out.

While Wisconsin’s bottom never quite fell out like Ohio State’s, the Badgers also lack such talent this season. There was a reason they were picked No. 9 in the preseason media poll. Finishing No. 12 in the conference is obviously short of that, but hardly surprisingly so.

Wisconsin never flashed this season. There was no moment that inspired faith among alums. Personally, I know three who attended the Badgers’ regular-season finale, a four-point win at Minnesota, and the easiest question to ask was what one sister did to anger the other that Wisconsin basketball tickets were deemed an acceptable birthday present?

Alternating decent wins with momentum-killing losses throughout all of February never gave Greg Gard’s team enough traction to think more may be ahead. The top end of this roster is lacking star power, consistency, and experience. Senior forward Tyler Wahl takes up the most possessions, yet his most impressive stat is a decent defensive rebounding rate.

The Badgers’ best hope may be sophomore guard Chucky Hepburn living up to his first name from deep, hitting 43.1% of his threes this season. Wisconsin as a whole relies heavily on life beyond the arc, taking 40.7% of its shots from there and making 35.5% of them. That is the wrong strategy to take against Chris Holtmann’s Buckeyes, who hold opponents to 32.7% from deep.

Neutralizing the Badgers’ best offensive hope while relying on recent momentum and overall stronger talent should be enough to get Ohio State to cover a spread of less than a bucket.

My best bet: Ohio State -1.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Wisconsin vs Ohio State spread analysis

Ohio State’s offense was never terrible this season, but it has erupted in its last four games since that faceplant at Purdue. In their last four games, the Buckeyes have hit 48.9% of their shots.

In a counterintuitive way, this offense may be best suited to face the Badgers. Wisconsin holds opponents to 32.0% from deep and thus enjoys the No. 26 defense in Pomeroy’s rankings.

It is the Badgers’ greatest strength. Here’s the thing: Ohio State hardly shoots threes. By taking only 31.3% of their shots from beyond the arc, the Buckeyes rank No. 319 in the country. Their No. 21 offense, again per Pomeroy, relies on offensive rebounds and disciplined ball handlers.

Without junior forward Zed Key — who underwent season-ending shoulder surgery this week — those offensive rebounds may fall slightly. However, that may just lead to more action from Brice Sensabaugh, one of the country’s highest-volume shooters yet also one of its more-efficient scorers.

He fouled out in only 16 minutes in Ohio State’s loss to Wisconsin on Feb. 2, taking just one free throw and not grabbing any offensive rebounds, nearly gifting the Badgers a five-point victory.

If Sensabaugh plays a complete game tonight, it is hard to envision the Badgers’ wretched offense keeping up with his midrange and driving game.

Wisconsin vs Ohio State Over/Under analysis

A total of 131.5 will hinge on how one feels about Ohio State’s offense against Wisconsin’s defense. They are the impressive force and stout object, respectively, in this matchup. Neither is good enough to warrant the usual descriptors of “unstoppable force” or “immovable object,” but they will dictate this result, one way or another, nonetheless.

Neither team does well drawing fouls, both ranking in the 300s in the country in free-throw rate, per Pomeroy, and each offense is generally rather plodding.

Given the stakes of this game — it really is win-or-go-home — a tentative first half would be only human and also enough to cast this well Under the total.

Wisconsin vs Ohio State betting trend to know

Wisconsin has not won two games in a row since the calendar turned to January. Find more college basketball betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Ohio State.

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