Xavier vs Providence Odds, Picks and Predictions: Friars Big on the Boards

Two evenly-matched Big East programs will clash on Wednesday night as the 19th-ranked Xavier Musketeers travel northeast to face off with the 20th-ranked Providence Friars. 

Xavier is 21-8 overall and 13-5 in Big East play. The Musketeers have lost three of their past five games, but won the previous matchup with Providence a month ago. The Friars are an identical 21-8 overall and 13-5 in Big East play. However, Providence has won three of their past four games.

Will Providence improve their NCAA tournament resume with one last big regular season win? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for the Xavier Musketeers and Providence Friars on Wednesday, March 1 to find out.

Xavier vs Providence best odds

Xavier vs Providence picks and predictions

In the first matchup between these two programs exactly one month ago, Xavier came out with an overtime win at home, 85-83. In that game, five Friars reached double digits in points, while only three Musketeers reached double digits, but they all reached 20 points. The two programs combined for only 11 turnovers.

Providence’s top player is a transfer sophomore from Kentucky, Bryce Hopkins. He’s averaging 16.4 points and 8.8 rebounds per game and is shooting 47.8% from the field. In the first matchup, Hopkins had a strong game, but shot very poorly finishing with 10 points, 13 rebounds, 5 assists, and shooting 21.4% from the field. 

Hopkins is likely to improve at home in this game, as he averages 17.0 points, 9.1 rebounds, and shoots 46.3% in home games. The Friars are a perfect 15-0 at home, which includes wins over ranked opponents Marquette, UConn, and Creighton. They’re also 10-5 against the spread in those 15 home games. 

Both teams have some similar strengths and weaknesses, but rebounding is where the Friars will try to take advantage. Providence ranks 14th in the country, grabbing 39.2 boards per game, allowing only 31.7 boards per contest. 

Xavier is a strong rebounding team themselves, averaging 37.5 (46th) boards and allowing 32.1 (68th) per game. However, they were outrebounded by Providence 39-36 in the first matchup, despite shooting a better percentage and being at home. Only three players recorded five or more boards, where Providence had five players reach this number. 

Hopkins is going to be very important in this game to be the difference maker for the Friars. He averaged 25.3 points, 12.3 rebounds, and shot 46.8% from the floor in his previous three home games against ranked opponents. I like Providence to get another big home win in the final week of the regular season.

My best bet: Providence -3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Xavier vs Providence spread analysis

Both teams may be 21-8 straight up, but Xavier is 16-12-1 ATS compared to Providence’s marginally better 18-11 ATS record. Providence is also 6-2 ATS this year as a single-digit favorite, and only one of those losses was at home. Xavier failed to cover as 4-point favorites in the first matchup.

Jack Nunge for Xavier had 23 points and 14 rebounds in that first game, but he is a much better rebounder at home than he is on the road. He averages 1.5 less rebounds per game on the road. If he is unable to get double-digit boards, then it is unlikely anyone else on the team will. 

The Musketeers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. The Friars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall. They’re also 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following an ATS win.

This game is likely to be close, but rebounding and home-court advantage will win out for the Friars. This win could easily put them in contention for a Top-5 seed in the NCAA tournament and they will do whatever they can to get it done. Give me the Friars here. 

Xavier vs Providence Over/Under analysis

Both teams get off a ton of shots, but also allow a ton of shots to their opponents. Xavier ranks 33rd in the country with 61.1 field goal attempts per game and allows 62.0 attempts per contest (341st). Meanwhile, Providence averages 59.9 attempts (73rd) and allows 60.5 per game (311th).  

This is because both sides are fast and efficient: Xavier ranks 29th in possessions per game and Providence ranks 91st, while the Musketeers rank ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency in KenPom rankings, and the Friars rank 19th.

The Over is 4-1 in the Musketeers’ last five games against a team with a winning straight-up record and 11-4 in their last 15 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Over is 5-1 in the Friars’ last six games against a team with a winning straight-up record and 4-0 in their last four games overall.

This is a very high total, but I would still lean towards the Over if forced to choose a side.

Xavier vs Providence betting trend to know

The Musketeers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight-up win of more than 20 points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Xavier vs. Providence.

Xavier vs Providence game info

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