The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have not won outright as two-score underdogs since upsetting LSU in the 2014 Music City Bowl. The Irish were 8.5-point underdogs then, just as they are now in the college football national championship odds against the Ohio State Buckeyes. But these upsets do happen.
Three of the 10 four-team Playoffs were won by underdogs in the national title game, including the first one when Ohio State was a six-point underdog against Oregon.
This would be the biggest title-game upset of the Playoff era, a fitting way to cap the biggest Playoff in college football history.
Here are three reasons the Irish could pull off the unexpected and win this national championship featuring Ohio State vs. Notre Dame on Monday, January 20.
Three reasons why Notre Dame will win the national championship
Pass Defense
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have the best pass defense in the country in expected points added (EPA) per dropback against, according to cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com. Heading into the College Football Playoff semifinals, opponents had lost an average of 0.178 expected points per dropback against Notre Dame.
When considering game state — down, distance, field position, time, score — opponents have gone backward when throwing against the Irish at a greater rate than the worst passing offenses in the country. In terms of game state, Notre Dame turns opposing passing attacks into something worse than Kent State’s and Tulsa’s.
Yes, that sounds dramatic, but it is factual and emphasizes how good the Irish pass defense is. Looking at the best units in the four simple facets of football — rush offense, pass offense, rush defense, and pass defense — the biggest gap between the best and No. 2 is the one between Notre Dame’s pass defense and the next.
Keep that escalation in mind when recognizing that the Ohio State Buckeyes have the No. 1 pass offense in the country and have already beaten the Nos. 3, 4, and 5 such defenses in this Playoff. (The Buckeyes rank No. 2.)
It may be hard to believe anyone could slow down the Buckeyes’ passing offense with downfield threats like Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, and Carnell Tate. But Notre Dame has that kind of pass defense, led by All-American safety Xavier Watts and burgeoned by an underrated pass rush.
If the Irish can indeed slow that attack, they can keep Ohio State in the low 20s on the scoreboard. Penn State (No. 7 EPA dropback defense) held the Buckeyes to just 20 points in large part to giving up a mere 7.6 yards per pass attempt. Michigan (No. 17) gave up only 10 points thanks to 5.3 yards per Buckeyes’ pass attempt. And boldly remove the 75-yard screen pass to end the first half last week and realize Texas otherwise held Ohio State to 14 offensive points on 6.7 yards per pass attempt.
That is a bold exception in the Cotton Bowl, but if granting it, those were the three lowest yards per pass attempt allowed against the Buckeyes since September, as well as the three lowest offensive outputs.
Third downs
In the decade of the four-team Playoff, only three outright upsets occurred in national championship games: 2014 Ohio State as a six-point underdog against Oregon; 2016 Clemson as a 6.5-point underdog against Alabama; and 2018 Clemson as a 5.5-point underdog against Alabama again.
All three of those underdogs committed fewer penalties for fewer yards and won on third downs.
Both the Irish and the Buckeyes have about broken even in the Playoff in committing penalties — Notre Dame with 20 for 140 yards and its opponents with 15 for 126. Meanwhile, Ohio State has committed 14 for 114 yards and its opponents with 14 for 117, a similar break-even rate as the Buckeyes saw in their four one-score games plus the Cotton Bowl.
But the Irish dominate on third downs.
In those four one-score games plus the Cotton Bowl, Ohio State converted 19 of 60 third downs (31.7%) as opponents were 26 of 70 (37.1%).
Notre Dame has not played many close games, especially not since its Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois. Even its 31-24 win against Louisville was not as close as the score seemed, given the Irish led 31-17 into the closing minutes. Consider it the practical opposite of the Cotton Bowl.
But looking at Playoff stakes, Notre Dame has converted 22 of 43 third downs (51.2%). Opponents have converted 9 of 35 (25.7%).
Even the advanced numbers vastly prefer the Irish on late downs. Notre Dame’s defense ranks No. 4 in third- and fourth-down success rate, while Ohio State’s offense is No. 20. The Irish offense comes in at a more modest No. 62, but so does the Buckeyes’ defense at No. 21.
It is an obvious key to any game, but winning third downs on offense will matter even more for Notre Dame if head coach Marcus Freeman attempts to shorten this game as he did in the 2022 season opener when facing a greater talent gap against Ohio State.
Margins
Freeman will likely try to drain the clock, particularly in the first half, dragging out the game and trusting his team to make fewer mistakes than Ohio State.
That was the exact recipe for upsetting Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, and the Irish enjoyed a similar advantage on the margins against the Bulldogs.
If these following trends continue to lean Notre Dame’s way, the Irish may not need much of a moment to capitalize.
Notre Dame has the No. 3 net field position in the country this season; Ohio State is 21st.
In three Playoff games — their only genuinely competitive games since early September — the Irish have a plus-one turnover margin. In four one-score games plus the Cotton Bowl — all since mid-October — the Buckeyes have a negative-two turnover margin.
Notre Dame has forced 32 turnovers this season, including four in three Playoff games. Ohio State has forced just 19 turnovers this season, including only two in three Playoff games and six total in four one-score games plus the Cotton Bowl.
Irish kicker Mitch Jeter has made 7 of 8 field-goal attempts in the Playoff. Buckeyes kicker Jayden Fielding has made 2 of 3 and 4 of 7 in four one-score games plus the Cotton Bowl.
Every small margin tilts Notre Dame’s way. If the Irish keep the national championship close into the fourth quarter, those could make all the difference.
