Simply put, the ACC is the Clemson conference. Clemson missed out on the very first College Football Playoff but since then, Dabo Swinney and the Tigers have won six consecutive conference championships and two national titles.
Of course, Clemson is a heavy betting favorite to win its seventh straight ACC title, but with the likes of Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne moving on the NFL, and teams like UNC with Heisman contender Sam Howell on the rise, will there be a changing of the guard in the ACC?
Here’s our 2021 ACC college football betting preview.
ACC futures odds
| Team | Odds to win ACC | Win total O/U |
|---|---|---|
| Clemson | -750 | 11.5 |
| North Carolina | +800 | 9.5 |
| Miami | +900 | 9 |
| Virginia Tech | +3,000 | 7.5 |
| Louisville | +3,500 | 6.5 |
| NC State | +4,000 | 6.5 |
| Pittsburgh | +4,500 | 7 |
| Wake Forest | +4,500 | 7 |
| Boston College | +5,000 | 7 |
| Florida State | +5,000 | 5.5 |
| Virginia | +5,500 | 6.5 |
| Georgia Tech | +10,000 | 4.5 |
| Syracuse | +15,000 | 3 |
| Duke | +20,000 | 4 |
ACC betting preview
While Lawrence and Co. may have moved on, that doesn’t mean the cupboards are bare at Clemson. Quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei is ready to take over the reins for the Tigers and performed well in his two starts last season, and is the second favorite to win the Heisman.
But a big reason that Clemson is such a massive, -900 favorite to win the conference, is that defensive coordinator Brent Venables might have one of his best units yet and arguably the best front seven in the country.
According to the odds, Clemson’s biggest challenge will come from the North Carolina Tar Heels. It is Year 3 of the Mack Brown era, and it could be a big one with Sam Howell under center. Another Heisman hopeful, Howell is drawing comparisons to Baker Mayfield.
Can a team like Virginia Tech or Pitt present a challenge? But the biggest question from the non-Clemson teams is - is The U back?
ACC best ATS bet for 2021: Pittsburgh
I know I’m going to regret this. But I’m saying Pittsburgh will be my favorite ATS play in the ACC this season.
I say this because Pitt has made a habit of winning some games they shouldn’t and then losing some they should have no business losing. Last season was a perfect example: the Panthers lost to NC State as two-touchdown faves but beat Florida State and Virginia Tech outright as underdogs.
But, there is reason to believe all the pieces can fall into place for Pitt and Pat Narduzzi in 2021.
It all starts with fifth-year starter at quarterback Kenny Pickett. While Pickett has reached his top potential, he threw for 2,408 yards with a 61.1 percent completion percentage. He’ll play behind an experienced line, has two dynamic receivers in Jordan Addison and Taysir Mack, and an explosive backfield featuring Israel Abanikanda and Vincent Davis.
On defense, Pitt has to replace some key players on defense but return all their defensive tackles and have arguably the best linebacking corps outside of Clemson. This unit will be as aggressive and disruptive as any in the conference once again. If they can limit some of the big plays, this Pitt team will surprise some people and thus potentially be quite profitable. (I’ve jinxed it already).
ACC best O/U for 2021: Boston College Over
There will be plenty of hype surrounding the Boston College Eagles and quarterback Phil Jurkovec, who is already rising up NFL Draft boards, but what kind of season will it be in Chestnut Hill?
Well, Jurkovec should give the Eagles another high-octane passing attack. Jurkovec threw for 2,558 yards with 17 touchdowns to just five interceptions while completing 61 percent of his passes. All five starters are back on the offensive line and the Eagles’ receiving corps, featuring Zay Flowers, CJ Lewis, and Jaelen Gill, should be explosive.
If BC can get some production out of what was a listless ground game last season, they will become a very dangerous offense.
On the other side of the ball, Boston College returns eight starters, but it was a unit that struggled in 2020. The Eagles allowed 28.4 points per game and 6.1 yards per play a season ago and while there should be some improvement from what is a more experienced bunch, there are still plenty of holes left to fill. Bet on the Eagles to soar over a bunch of totals in 2021.
ACC best win total bet for 2021: NC State Over 6.5
It seems kind of crazy that the team that is arguably the second-best in the ACC Atlantic Division has a win total of just 6.5, but that’s the case with North Carolina State this year.
The Wolfpack had back-to-back nine-win seasons before quarterback Ryan Finley and offensive coordinator Eli Drinkwitz left, resulting in a 4-8 season in 2019. But, the Pack bounced back with a surprising 8-4 season in 2020 and now return 19 starters.
The offense has a lot of promise with the return of sophomore quarterback Devin Leary, its top three running backs, top three pass catchers, and a veteran offensive line. The defense returns 10 starters and should have a beast of a front seven.
And even though NC State plays Clemson and draws Miami and North Carolina for the Coastal, this is still a manageable schedule. The Wolfpack have a chance to start the season 3-0 with dates against USF, Mississippi, and Furman. They should also be favorites against Louisiana Tech and Syracuse.
And, with toss-up games against Boston College, Louisville, Florida State, and Wake Forest, seven wins feels almost like a worst-case scenario for the Wolfpack.
Three must-bet ACC games for 2021
- Georgia vs Clemson, Sept. 4: What a way to open the season. This game between national title contenders will be played at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte where the Tigers are 3-point favorites with a total of 52. The victor earns one of the biggest wins on the college football season but the loser won’t be out of the CFP picture by any means.
- Miami at North Carolina, Oct. 16: The winner of this matchup will likely have the inside track to the ACC Coastal. The Tar Heels are on the board as 3-point home favorites but the underdog is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings in this matchup.
- North Carolina at Notre Dame, Oct. 30: Notre Dame isn’t in the ACC anymore but UNC will be out for some revenge after losing last year’s matchup 31-17 in a game that was tied at halftime. Notre Dame is currently a 1.5-point home favorite.
Best value to win the ACC: Miami (+900)
While Howell and UNC are getting plenty of hype when it comes to ACC teams not named Clemson, I’m riding The U in this category.
We might learn a lot about this team right out of the gate when they open the season against AP No. 1 ranked Alabama. D’Eriq King has looked healthy through the start of camp after tearing his ACL in a Miami’s bowl game last year, and he may or may not play in this one. However, that shouldn’t matter.
After the opener, the schedule shapes up pretty well for the Hurricanes this season, which includes them coming off a bye before a big date with UNC at Chapel Hill. And, King isn’t the only Cane that is back as Miami returns 19 starters this season, including running back Cam’Ron Harris, most of their pass catchers, plus the addition of Oklahoma transfer Charleston Rambo.
You know Manny Diaz’s defense, which returns nine starters, is going to wreak havoc on offenses all season long. This is a talented and balanced bunch. If King is 100 percent, they might actually pose a threat to Clemson.
Pick to win the ACC: Clemson (-750)
You’ve got to beat the champ to be the champ, and until Clemson gets dethroned there is no reason to fade them at this point. Dabo has already proved he can reload this team that is now one of the true powers in college football.
Uiagalelei looked impressive in his two starts last season, throwing for 914 yards on a 66.7 completion rate with five touchdowns and no interceptions. He gets back Justyn Ross to anchor the receiving corps and the defense returns nine starters.
The opening date against Georgia will be a good measuring stick, but in the end, won’t mean much in the ACC picture. If Clemson wins the ACC for a seventh straight season, they will undoubtedly be back in the College Football Playoff.
Where can I bet on college football?
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