Air Force vs Louisville First Responder Bowl Odds, Picks and Predictions: Maverick Falcons

Tuesday marks a busy day on the college football bowl game schedule, with the second contest of the day being a matchup between the Air Force Falcons and Louisville Cardinals in the First Responder Bowl.

The Cardinals received some great news when quarterback Malik Cunningham announced he would return for his senior season. And the Cards will need a huge game from their dual-threat QB if they’ll want to win against Air Force.

The Blue Falcons have been one of the best under-the-radar teams in college football, not to mention one of the best bets, and are looking to secure a 10-win season.

Here are our free college football betting picks and predictions for Air Force vs. Louisville on December 28.

Air Force vs Louisville odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Louisville opened this bowl matchup as 1-point underdogs but the line quickly jumped the fence and the Cardinals are now laying 1.5 points. Meanwhile, the total has stuck around the opening number of 55 but has ticked up slightly around 55.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Air Force vs Louisville predictions

• Prediction: Air Force +1.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 55.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Air Force moneyline (+100)

Predictions made on 12/21/2021 at 12:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Air Force vs Louisville game info

• Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, University Park, TX
• Date: Tuesday, December 28, 2021
• Time: 3:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Air Force vs Louisville betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

Air Force: Micah Davis WR/RB (Questionable), DeAndre Hughes WR/RB (Questionable), Haaziq Daniels QB (Questionable).
Louisville: Jordan Watkins WR (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Air Force is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 non-conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Air Force vs. Louisville.

Air Force vs Louisville picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Yes, getting Malik Cunningham to come back is a huge deal for Louisville. The dual-threat QB has had a huge season for the Cardinals, throwing for 2,734 yards with 18 touchdowns compared to just six interceptions, while adding another 968 yards and 19 scored on the ground.

The only problem for Louisville is, well, everything else. The Cardinals enter bowl season having lost three of their last five games and the two wins came against Duke and Syracuse, while the defense ranks 84th in opponent yards allowed per game.

Now, they’ll have to deal with an Air Force team coming off a really strong year. Their three losses came to rival Army in overtime, San Diego State, and Utah State, the latter of which faced off for the Mountain West crown. 

The Falcons option offense should have plenty of chances for success against a Louisville defense that ranks 91st in opponent yards per carry.

The Falcons will also do all they can to stuff the Louisville rushing attack and force Cunningham to beat them with his arm. Air Force has one of the top rushing defenses in the country, limiting opponents to just 3.3 yards per carry. 

To make things even tougher on Cunningham, two of his top four receivers have entered the transfer portal and won’t play in this bowl game. Bet on Air Force to stuff the run and wear out the Cardinals with their own running game and cover this spread.

Prediction: Air Force +1.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The total for this matchup has seen little action to this point, but my gut reaction is the Under. For starters, the clock should be constantly moving thanks to the fact that both teams lean heavily on the ground game. 

Air Force led the country in rushing play percentage, and while Louisville isn’t a true option offense, it isn't too shabby ranking 40th in rushing play percentage. 

Then there's the matter of actually scoring. While Louisville ranks a respectable 39th in the country in scoring at 31.9 points per game, it hasn’t exactly played many tough defenses this season. And in the Cards' three games against what I would call good defenses (Kentucky, Clemson, and North Carolina State), that scoring average dropped to 19.3.

Air Force will control the pace of this game with the run and this one should fall below the total.

Prediction: Under 55.5 (-110)

Best bet

Air Force has been one of the most underrated teams in college football all season long, not to mention one of its best bets at 8-4 against the spread, including going 7-2 ATS down the stretch. But it’s the combination of the Blue Falcons' ability to shut down the Louisville running game while leaning on their own to wear out the Cardinals defense that makes Air Force not only a good bet to cover the spread but to win outright on the moneyline.

Pick: Air Force moneyline (+100)

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