The first leg of the battle for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy takes place this weekend as the Air Force Falcons head to Annapolis to face off against the Navy Midshipmen.
The Falcons crushed the Midshipmen 40-7 last season, but while Navy will be focused on revenge this year, college football bettors need to focus on one of the best trends going in sports – service academy Unders.
Find out more about one of our favorite betting trends with our free college football betting picks and predictions for Air Force vs. Navy on Saturday, September 11.
Air Force vs Navy odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The line opened at Air Force -6.5 and as of Wednesday afternoon sits at -6, after a brief drop down to -5.5 on Tuesday. Action on the Under has seen the total steadily drop since Sunday, hitting the board at 44.0 and eventually dropping down to 40.5. Be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets, and also view the full line movement for this game.
Air Force vs Navy picks
Picks made on 9/8/2021 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Air Force vs Navy game info
• Location: Navy Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD
• Date: Saturday, September 11, 2021
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Air Force vs Navy betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Air Force: No key injuries to report.
Navy: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
You're going to hear a lot about this here: The Under is 37-9 (80.4 percent) when service academies face off since 2005. Find more NCAA betting trends for Air Force vs. Navy.
Air Force vs Navy predictions
Air Force -5.5 (-110)
Let’s get the side pick for this matchup out of the way quickly. Not only did Air Force destroy Navy 40-7 as 6.5-point underdogs last season, but these teams are just trending in opposite directions right now.
Navy is coming off a 3-7 season and opened this year by getting crushed by Marshall 49-7 as 3.5-point underdogs. The Midshipmen just didn’t have any explosive plays in their arsenal. Yes, they ran for 337 yards against the Herd but at just 4.49 yards per carry. And, although the triple-option offense does not rely on passing too often, Navy looks like it is close to zero threat in that category this year.
The bigger concern for Navy may be a defense that allowed 49 points and 464 yards. While that mostly came through the air (which Air Force won’t be doing), this is a defense that allowed nearly five yards per carry on the ground last season, and 369 rushing yards on 7.0 yards per attempt in last year's loss to the Falcons.
Air Force, on the other hand, was all business in its 35-14 win over FCS Lafayette, rushing for nearly 400 yards in the win. But the Falcons look like a contender in the Mountain West this year thanks to a defense that returns nine starters to a unit that allowed just 303 yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry a season ago. Lay the points and don’t think too hard about it.
Under 40.5 (-110)
OK, on to the main event.
One more time. Since 2005, the Under is a ridiculous 37-9 when service academies face off. That is a cash rate of over 80 percent. Insane.
This matchup specifically has gone Under seven times in the last nine meetings and has seen an average of 51.7 points per game. Now, this is the lowest total by a whopping six points over that span, but there is still reason to back the Under here.
For starters, for those who don’t know, all three service academies run the triple-option offense. This is an almost entirely run-based offense where the quarterback usually has multiple places he can hand off the ball on each play. So, both teams run the ball. A lot. Which is always good for Unders.
Second, both of these defenses return nine starters this season and while Air Force has the decidedly better unit, Navy should be able to hold its own for a while.
Third, while Navy looks like the inferior team in this matchup, they are at home and should get a boost being in front of the fans at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.
While we have lost some of the value since this total hit the board, we’re still not tempting fate here and betting that one of our favorite college football betting trends comes through yet again.
Did you know that if you parlayed our Air Force vs. Navy picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?
Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
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