After last week’s 55-17 beatdown of LSU, it’s clear Alabama has its Death Machine mode fully engaged. Not only are the Crimson Tide destroying everything in their path, but they are also taking down huge spreads along the way.
It will be more of the same this week as Bama heads to Arkansas to take on the Razorbacks as whopping 31.5-point college football betting favorites in their final regular-season tune-up before the SEC championship game.
Here are our best college football free picks and predictions for No. 1 Alabama at Arkansas, with kickoff set for Saturday, Dec. 12 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Preview
Weather
There is a chance it could be a bit of a sloppy day in Arkansas. The forecast is calling for a few showers throughout the day in Fayetteville with temperatures in the lows 40s. But a 12-13 mph wind blowing across the field from west to east could have the game feeling a little colder. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key Injuries
Alabama: Xavier Williams WR (Questionable), Jaylen Waddle WR (Out).
Arkansas: Grant Morgan LB (Questionable), Feleipe Franks QB (Questionable), Rakeem Boyd RB (Out), De'Vion Warren WR (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Under is 5-0 in Arkansas' last five games as a home underdog. Find more NCAA betting trends for Alabama vs. Arkansas.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
Alabama is on a mission. The Crimson Tide are a perfect 9-0 SU and look to be getting stronger each week. What’s most impressive about their current run is that the Tide are a remarkable 6-0 ATS over their last six games, while facing an average of nearly 24 points of chalk per game over that span—thanks in part to a next-level offense that puts up nearly 50 points and 550 yards per contest.
Quarterback Mac Jones is in the middle of the Heisman conversation, completing 75.7 percent of his passes for 3,113 yards with 27 touchdowns compared to just three interceptions. Jones is throwing to arguably the best receiving corps in the country, even with losing Jaylen Waddle to injury. Then he has the luxury of handing the ball off to Najee Harris in the backfield.
They’ll face an Arkansas defense that ranks 103rd in the country in total defense and has particularly struggled against the pass, allowing 263.2 passing yards per game.
But it’s the improvement of the defense that is taking the Alabama Death Machine over the top. Since giving up 48 points to Ole Miss back in October, the Tide have given up just 74 total points.
While Arkansas is showing signs of turning its program around, this matchup will be too much for the Razorbacks to handle. On top of that, Arkansas has suffered a few losses to its offense and now QB Feleipe Franks is questionable to play this weekend.
Fade Alabama if you wish, but that does not seem advisable at the moment. Roll Tide.
PREDICTION: Alabama -31.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The only concern with betting Alabama in this matchup is that with the SEC Championship game on tap it might take their foot off the gas a little early in this one. But that may play better to the total in this matchup, which as of Tuesday afternoon is on the board at 68.
Since facing Georgia on October 17, Alabama has played five games and been at least a 21.5-point favorite in each game. Over that stretch, the Tide have averaged 49.8 points per game, so the question is can Arkansas make up those 18 points?
Well, Bama is giving up just 10 points and 276 yards per game and over that same stretch. While Arkansas has shown some scoring prowess this season, the injuries and question marks at quarterback – and losing guys like running back Rakeem Boyd and wideout De'Vion Warren – will hold back the Razorbacks offense. This one should slip Under the number.
PREDICTION: Under 68 (-110)
First Half Spread Pick
While Alabama might let up late in this one, it sure as hell won’t go easy in the first half. No college football team that has played more than five games in this topsy-turvy season has averaged more first-half points than the Tide’s 28.1 per contest. At the same time, Bama has allowed a total of just 30 first-half points over its last five games. Keep the tradition alive and take Alabama on the first-half spread.
PREDICTION: Alabama -17.5 (-116)
Alabama vs Arkansas Betting Card
- Alabama -31.5 (-110)
- Under 68 (-110)
- Alabama -17.5 First Half Spread (-116)
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