Those who dismiss bowl season have missed out in 2024. This December has provided drama after drama, overtime after overtime, and absurdity after absurdity. This is why we love college football.
My Iowa vs. Missouri predictions expect the same out of the Music City Bowl, a better bowl than widely recognized for quite some time. Quality programs like the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Missouri Tigers should ensure that. Kickoff comes your way at 2:30 pm ET on ESPN on Monday, December 30.
My college football picks think this game should be handicapped just like it would have been two months ago, with Iowa emerging as the obvious choice.
Iowa vs Missouri prediction and best bet
Who will win Iowa vs Missouri?
A strong argument could be made the wrong team is favored here. Look at the current SP+ rankings, the most widely accepted advanced numbers in this space. They would set Iowa as a 2.5-point favorite on a neutral field.
Why the opposite? This time of year, some deference needs to be offered to roster turnover.
Iowa’s quarterback depth chart is admittedly dubious. Cade McNamara has entered the transfer portal, though he missed the last month of the season due to injury. Brendan Sullivan was also injured for the last two games of the year, but Hawkeyes’ head coach Kirk Ferentz expects him back in the lineup in Nashville. That should solve this worry, as Iowa arguably improved under him in comparison to McNamara.
Missouri will be without star receiver Luther Burden, and if anyone should matter enough to impact this spread, it is Burden.
The wrong team is favored here. Iowa should win.
My best bet
Iowa moneyline (+125 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
How strongly does Covers.com like this bet? It was discussed in two separate episodes of our “College Football 134” podcast, most recently as the last bowl bet in an episode otherwise previewing the College Football Playoff quarterfinals.
Why? Because it is a moment ripe for bowl-season variance.
Iowa’s defense should muck up this bowl beyond recognition. Even with both rosters fully intact, the Hawkeyes’ defense would be the best unit on the field, and losing a starting cornerback to an opt-out should not be enough to change that, with all due respect to Jermari Harris.
Add in the fact that Missouri is down significant pieces of its offense, and Iowa’s defense should have healthy advantages on Monday. The Tigers are without star receiver Luther Burden (61 catches for 676 yards and six touchdowns), as well as their starting center, receiver Mookie Cooper, and tight end Brett Norfleet.
Anyone without three of their top-four pass-catchers is going to need to adjust. And for thoroughness’s sake, let’s point out that leading receiver Theo Wease could choose to not play the whole game, though his comments earlier this month certainly suggest he is all-in.
“I get another opportunity to play football, and I don’t think that for granted at all,” Wease said in mid-December.
Even with Wease, Missouri is going to struggle throwing the ball. That will not entirely kill an offense that already relies on the run for the bulk of its production, but it should turn it one-handed enough that Iowa shuts it down.
Forcing this game to be decided on the margins should always elicit a bowl-season bet on the underdog, but especially when that underdog is a team already built to win on the margins. Turning the Tigers’ offense one-dimensional will make this just such a game, a Hawkeyes’ specialty.
Iowa vs Missouri same-game parlay (SGP)
Iowa moneyline
Under 40.5
Yes, this is a low total. Yes, it causes worry. Yes, the prevalence of fake punts and trick plays in bowl games could logically induce an Over bet.
But this is Kirk Ferentz, a quarterback better described as a runner than even as a dual-threat worry. A neutered Tigers’ offense should further doom this game to a sluggish result.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Iowa vs Missouri odds
Iowa vs Missouri live odds
Iowa vs Missouri opening odds
- Iowa vs. Missouri spread: Missouri -2.5
- Iowa vs. Missouri moneyline: Iowa +110, Missouri -130
- Iowa vs. Missouri Over/Under: 43.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Iowa vs Missouri spread and Over/Under analysis
- Iowa opened as a 2.5-point underdog in this bowl game, a number that climbed to +3 within a day and then to +3.5 nearly three weeks ago.
- It did quickly fall back to +3, where it has remained for much of December.
- This total opened at 43.5 and fell to 40.5 within a day.
- Covers Consensus data says 52% of spread picks like Missouri, while 56% of picks are on the Over.
Iowa vs Missouri betting trend to know
The Hawkeyes are 4-1-1 against the spread in bowl games since 2017. Find more college football betting trends for Iowa vs Missouri.
How to watch Iowa vs Missouri game info
| Location: | Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN |
| Date: | Monday, 12-30-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Iowa vs Missouri latest injuries
Looking for who’s opted out of this game? Check out our updated college football bowl game opt-out tracker.
Iowa vs Missouri weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
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