One of the wildest spectacles of bowl season kicks off in the desert this afternoon as the Miami (OH) RedHawks (8-5) take on the Colorado State Rams (8-4) in the Snoop Dog Arizona Bowl.
This is an intriguing matchup between two programs that came up just short in their respective conference title races, and my Miami (OH) vs. Colorado State predictions are taking the points with a Rams program that has been able to seamlessly rework its persona.
Find out more in my college football picks for Saturday, December 28. Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET from Arizona Stadium in Tucson, with the game airing on CW.
Miami (OH) vs Colorado State prediction and best bet
Who will win Miami (OH) vs Colorado State?
The Colorado State Rams (+115) will pull off the upset. MAC teams generally struggle during bowl season, and a recent dud by Bowling Green in the 68 Ventures Bowl doesn’t inspire me with confidence that the conference has turned things around.
Meanwhile, the Miami (OH) RedHawks have struggled outside the conference. They hold a 1-3 record in non-MAC games, with their lone victory coming against a struggling UMass team. We still don’t know how they’ll look against an opponent such as CSU, but I’m not giving the MAC any benefit of the doubt.
My best bet
Colorado State +2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Typically an Air Raid coach whose offenses light the way, Norvel transitioned to a run-heavy, defense-first style after star wide receiver Tory Horton was lost due to injury early in the year, and it’s paid dividends as the Colorado State Rams nearly reached the Mountain West Championship.
CSU prefers to keep the ball on the ground (29th in rush rate), and it has two good running backs in Avery Morrow (956 yards, 13 touchdowns) and Justin Marshall (662 yards, four touchdowns). The Miami (OH) RedHawks defense isn't invulnerable, having surrendered 136.8 rushing yards per game on the year.
The advanced metrics don’t love Miami’s defense quite as much as you’d think given the RedHawks’ reputation on that side of the ball. They rank just 98th in rushing success rate, failing to create much of a push at the line of scrimmage (103rd in line yards, 126th in stuff rate).
The Rams should be able to establish their style of football, giving Morrow and Marshall a heavy workload while hitting a few shots through the air.
Their stiff defense (58th in EPA per play, 38th in explosiveness) holds a statistical advantage over Miami’s offense (100th in EPA per play, 95th in success rate) and should show up well considering the absences their MAC opponent is dealing with.
Although the RedHawks like to air it out under sixth-year quarterback Brett Gabbert, two of his top receiving targets have transferred out. Reggie Virgil is headed to Texas Tech (and will be joined by starting left tackle Will Jados), while Javon Tracy is taking his talents to Minnesota.
Miami’s offensive identity is thrown into flux without two wideouts who combined for 1,634 yards and 16 touchdowns. If you were an avid viewer of MACtion this year, you’re aware that Virgil and Tracy were two talents who changed the calculus of the game.
While the Rams are without four starters themselves, they won’t feel the losses as keenly as the RedHawks. Give me the underdog to cover this short spread.
Miami (OH) vs Colorado State same-game parlay (SGP)
Colorado State +2.5
Over 40.5
A total of 40.5 is simply too low for bowl season. Defenses tend to lighten up in a scrimmage-like environment, while the offenses want an extended look at what their skill position players can either accomplish one last time or showcase for next season.
CSU has three defensive starters up front in the transfer portal and was without another for the regular season finale due to injury. This may allow Miami running back Keyon Mozee more room to work than would typically be believed in this matchup.
On the flip side, Miami’s defense excels at limiting big plays (third in explosiveness), but that’s not CSU’s game anyway. The Rams hold a slight advantage in success rate (83rd offensively to 87th for Miami’s defense) and that’s not being accounted for with this low total.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Miami (OH) vs Colorado State odds
Miami (OH) vs Colorado State live odds
Miami (OH) vs Colorado State opening odds
- Miami (OH) vs. Colorado State spread: Colorado State +1.5
- Miami (OH) vs. Colorado State moneyline: Miami (OH) -120, Colorado State +100
- Miami (OH) vs. Colorado State Over/Under: 43.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Miami (OH) vs Colorado State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Colorado State is 7-4-1 ATS this year, while Miami finished the regular season 6-7 ATS.
- The Rams are 7-2 ATS over their last nine games.
- This game might be due for a slow start: Miami is 4-9 O/U in the first half across its past 13 games, while Colorado State is 4-8 O/U in the 1H over its last 12.
- 57% of Covers Consensus users are backing Colorado State on the spread, while 63% are taking the Over.
Miami (OH) vs Colorado State betting trend to know
Miami is 1-3 ATS in non-conference games this season. Find more college football betting trends for Miami (OH) vs Colorado State.
Miami (OH) vs Colorado State game info
| Location: | Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-28-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CW |
Miami (OH) vs Colorado State latest injuries
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Miami (OH) vs Colorado State weather
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