Alabama vs Georgia Odds, Picks, Predictions for the CFP National Championship Game

It's game day in Indianapolis! In the 2022 edition of the CFP National Championship game, the Alabama Crimson Tide go up against the Georgia Bulldogs in a rematch of the SEC championship.

Even with the ugly loss in the SEC title game, the Dawgs are CFP odds favorites in Kirby Smart’s latest attempt to get the monkey off his back and defeat his mentor, Nick Saban. The same Nick Saban who will be coaching in his ninth national championship in 13 seasons at Alabama.

Here are our free college football betting picks and predictions for the CFP National Championship, Alabama vs. Georgia on January 10.

Alabama vs Georgia odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Georgia hit the board for the national championship as 2.5-point favorites and has since been bet to -3. This after closing as 6-point chalk in the SEC title game. The total hit the board at 52.5 and has been bet down slightly to 52.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Alabama vs Georgia predictions

• Prediction: Alabama +3 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 52 (-110)
• Best bet: Bryce Young Over 2.5 touchdowns (+130)
• Best bet: Stetson Bennett Under 249.5 yards (-110)

Predictions made on 1/5/2022 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Alabama vs Georgia game info

• Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
• Date: Monday, January 10, 2022
• Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Alabama vs Georgia betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

Alabama: John Metchie III WR (Out), Josh Jobe CB (Out), Darrian Dalcourt OL (Questionable).
Georgia: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 7-3 in Georgia's last 10 games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Alabama vs. Georgia.

Alabama vs Georgia picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Bulldogs got back to looking like the best team in college football after a dominating performance in the Orange Bowl, crushing the Michigan Wolverines 34-11 as 7.5-point favorites. Alabama took care of business in the Cotton Bowl, riding Brian Robinson and the running game to a smothering 27-6 victory over Cincinnati easily covering the 13.5-point chalk and setting up a rematch of the SEC title game.

Alabama entered that game as a 6-point underdog, as Georgia looked like the clear-cut best team in the country at that point, but that didn’t mean much when was all said and done. The Crimson Tide, led by a huge performance from Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young, throttled a Bulldogs defense that was being lauded as one of the best ever, winning the SEC Championship 41-24. 

Put it this way. The 41 points the Bulldogs allowed in that game was 30.4 percent of the points they allowed all season long.

While this game was played just a little more than a month ago, there are still a ton of questions to be answered heading into this rematch. 

Can Georgia make the adjustments to slow down Young? Is Stetson Bennet good enough to keep the Bulldogs in the game if they fall behind? How much of a deal are the Tide injuries? And maybe most importantly of all, can Georgia get over the mental hurdle that Alabama represents?

Well, Georgia reminded us in the Orange Bowl that this looked like one of the best defenses we have seen in college football in years. The Bulldogs limited the Wolverines to just 5.2 yards per play and a season-low 88 yards rushing. 

But, that was against a Michigan offense that was unable to move the ball through the air. Young has already proved he can attack the Georgia secondary downfield, throwing for 421 yards in the SEC Championship. That said, we’ll actually see in this game how the loss of John Metchie will affect the Tide. It didn’t really matter in the Cotton Bowl because they just ran the ball down Cincy’s throat.

Meanwhile, Georgia’s offense did an excellent job of shutting down Aiden Hutchinson and it’ll need to do the same against Will Anderson and Alabama. Of course, that is easier said than done, and Georgia will not be able to run the ball as it did against Michigan. Bama’s third-ranked rushing defense limited the Dawgs to 3.6 yards per carry in the SEC championship.

So, that means you need to have confidence in Bennett’s ability to move the ball down the field. I’m just not ready to trust him in this spot — is Smart, for that matter? It will be interesting to see if he pulls the trigger if Bennett is struggling and turn to J.T. Daniels.

Lastly, you can’t deny the fact that Nick Saban and Alabama live rent-free in Georgia’s head. While that’s not a deciding factor, if the Tide get out to an early lead, there is definitely going to be a, “here we go again” thought that creeps in the back of the Bulldogs’ minds.

While I went into this game thinking we would get more value with Georgia after what happened in the SEC Championship Game, that didn’t end up happening. I think this ends up being a close game so, it’s hard to say no to getting points with Alabama in this spot. Roll Tide.

Prediction: Alabama +3 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

When it comes to the total for the national championship, 52 might seem a little low considering these teams put up 65 points in the SEC Championship, but for me, the Under is still the play here.

For starters, there are still inconsistencies in the Alabama offense. Outside of Young’s excellent arm, Bama hasn’t played too many complete games on offense this season, including in the Cotton Bowl. 

Offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien concocted a great game plan against the Bearcats, riding running back Brian Robinson against an undersized Cincy front seven. Then Young hit one deep ball and that was all she wrote. 

But, Bama will not be able to run that way against Georgia. On top of that, it sounds like Alabama has some injuries on an offensive line that is not deep. That doesn’t bode well against what is the best front seven in college football. While Young was able to move the ball through the air against Georgia in the SEC title game, he did so under pressure quite often.

On top of that, this is the first game where we will be able to see what the aforementioned absence of John Metchie means to the Bama offense, as it leaned heavily on the run game against Cincinnati. 

Then there is Georgia’s offense. I think the SEC championship showed us that Bennett is not the guy you want leading your offense if you need to come back, and I don’t believe he’ll be able to have the same success against Alabama as he did Michigan. The Tide linebackers are good enough to take away the middle and short zones.

So, the Dawgs know they will have to strike first and try and control the clock with the ground game. Easier said than done against an Alabama rush defense that allowed the second-lowest yards per carry this season.

When it comes down to it, I think Georgia’s defense has too much pride and is too good to let another 41-point performance happen again, while its offense has enough issues to keep this one Under the number. 

Prediction: Under 52 (-110)

Best bets

Heisman showcase

While I am siding with Alabama when it comes to the spread, my confidence is nowhere near 100 percent in that bet. Can I see a scenario where Georgia’s defense plays to its full potential and shuts down Bama? Of course. So, where the value in this game lies is in the prop market, and we are going to focus on the two quarterbacks.

Let’s start with Alabama’s Bryce Young. It seems the guy who won the Heisman Trophy is getting a little disrespected by sportsbooks heading into this national championship. Young’s touchdown total is set at 2.5 with the Over getting crazy good plus money at +130.

Yes, Georgia has a great defense, but Young has thrown 46 touchdown passes this season and has only thrown fewer than three TDs four times in his 14 games this season. That includes throwing for three against Georgia in the SEC title game. Once again, yes, the Georgia defense could step up and hold Young to only a couple of TD tosses, but to be plus-money like that on this prop seems crazy. Over.

Pick: Bryce Young Over 2.5 touchdowns (+130)

Unlikely sequel

Next up is Stetson Bennett. The Georgia signal-caller is hoping to repeat his performance against Michigan in the Orange Bowl, where he went 20-30 for 313 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. That was his second straight 300-yard game after going for 340 in the SEC title game.

Georgia (and everyone else for that matter) knows that the key to winning this game isn’t with Bennett throwing the football. The Bulldogs need to run the ball effectively and control the clock. While it might be unlikely, there is still a small chance that if Bennett struggles, Kirby Smart could turn to J.T. Daniels. 

That makes the Under on his passing total of 249.5 tempting, particularly when you consider he went Under this number in just over half his games this season.

Pick: Stetson Bennett Under 249.5 yards (-110)

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