Alabama vs LSU Odds, Picks and Predictions: Tide Doesn't Roll So Easily

It’s kind of hard to wrap your head around the fact that Alabama heads to take on LSU this weekend in a massive SEC matchup where both teams rank in the Top 10 of the initial College Football Playoff rankings — and it’s not the biggest game of the week.

Welcome to college football in 2022.

While the Brian Kelly era in Baton Rouge got off to a rocky start, the Tigers have rattled off six wins in their last seven games, with the lone loss coming to No. 1-ranked Tennessee, and are now getting nearly two touchdowns at home against Bama.

But is that giving too much respect to the Crimson Tide who’ve had noted struggles on the road and against higher-level competition? I break it all down and give you my best bet in my college football picks and predictions for Alabama vs. LSU on Saturday, November 5. 

Alabama vs LSU best odds

Alabama vs LSU picks and predictions

The Brian Kelly era at LSU did not get off to the smoothest of starts. 

The Tigers got soundly outplayed by Florida State in their opener and the new head coach wasn’t exactly making nice with the Baton Rouge media. But winning changes everything in college football. LSU has won six of its last seven games heading into this matchup, with the lone loss coming against No. 1-ranked Tennessee.

A big reason for the Tiger turnaround has been the play under center. It looks like quarterback Jayden Daniels has settled in with his new team over the last few weeks. In the Tigers' last three games, he's thrown for 897 yards with six touchdowns and just one interception, and completed 72.4% of his passes while adding another 203 yards and six scores on the ground.

Meanwhile, Alabama responded to its first loss of the season (also to Tennessee) with a ho-hum 30-6 victory over Mississippi State in Tuscaloosa back on Oct. 22. Bryce Young has been solid but just not as electric as in his Heisman campaign from a season ago — and the story has been the same for Crimson Tide all season.

They haven’t looked right on the road. They haven’t looked right against talented teams. And they haven’t looked right against guys with big arms. This game in Death Valley checks all the boxes.

Whether it was Quinn Ewers and the Texas game, or Hendon Hooker in the loss to Tennessee, Alabama has struggled in games where opposing quarterbacks are able to push the ball down the field. Heck, the Tide even made Haynes King look serviceable in their near loss to Texas A&M.

Daniels should be able to negate some of Alabama’s pass rush with his legs while the solid LSU secondary should do a decent enough job of not getting burned deep. The atmosphere in Death Valley at night helps. Alabama probably escapes with a win, but the Bayou Bengals keep it within the spread.

My best bet: LSU +13.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Alabama vs LSU spread analysis

This SEC matchup opened with Alabama as a 12-point road favorite and the line has slowly moved the Crimson Tide’s way, going to 12.5, and now 13.5 as of Thursday afternoon. 

I think that’s interesting the way Alabama has performed on the road. Texas, Arkansas, Tennessee. It hasn’t been pretty this season. And the Tide are also just 2-5 ATS in their last seven true road games.

As noted, the Alabama secondary has had issues with quarterbacks who can push the ball down the field, and Daniels is certainly capable of that after what he’s done over the last three games. The other problem has been penalties. 

Alabama is one of the most penalized teams in the country, with its 8.6 penalties per game ranking 126th in the nation. 

If a young but improving LSU offensive line can limit Will Anderson, the Tigers should have a great opportunity to keep this game within the number.

Alabama vs LSU Over/Under analysis

The total for this game hit the board at 58.5 and the early money has come in on the Under, with the number dropping to 56.5. Let me tell you why the steam on the Under makes sense.

For starters, while the LSU offense is humming, Alabama is by far the best defense the Tigers will have faced since their matchup against Auburn. And in the three games they have played against decent defenses, (Auburn, Mississippi State, and Florida State) they have scored an average of just 25 points.

Now, they go up against an Alabama defense, that while vulnerable, ranks fifth in the country in opponent yards per play.

Then there is the Alabama offense. The passing game just hasn’t been the same this season, and running back Jahmyr Gibbs has arguably been the Tide’s best player. 

Nick Saban is obviously well aware of his team’s struggles. To help fight that and the hostile crowd at Tiger Stadium, I’m expecting a heavy dose of Gibbs against an LSU defense that has been average against the rush. That means longer drives and a running clock. 

Alabama vs LSU betting trend to know

Alabama is 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games while LSU is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home. Find more NCAA betting trends for Alabama vs. LSU.

Alabama vs LSU game info

Alabama vs LSU latest injuries

Alabama vs LSU weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Pages related to this topic