The Alabama Crimson Tide are coming off an incredible undefeated season in which they captured their sixth National Championship in the Nick Saban era.
But 'Bama heads into this season having to deal with a massive loss of talent and begins the year with a tough road matchup against what should be a solid Miami Hurricanes team. Is 19.5-points giving The Tide too much respect in this spot, or is this just the latest in a long line of elite Saban-led squads?
Find out with our free college football betting picks and predictions for Alabama vs. Miami on Saturday, September 4.
Alabama vs Miami game info
• Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Saturday, September 4, 2021
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Alabama vs Miami odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Alabama vs Miami betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Alabama: John Metchie III WR (Questionable), Labryan Ray DL (Questionable).
Miami: D'Eriq King QB (Probable).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Alabama is 11-2 ATS in season openers since Nick Saban has become head coach. Find more NCAA betting trends for Alabama vs. Miami.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Yes, Alabama is coming off another national championship, but if they want to defend that title, they’ll be doing so missing several key pieces from last year’s squad.
Mac Jones, Najee Harris, Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, and several offensive linemen all moved on to the NFL, but don’t feel too bad for Bama. Bryce Young is set to take over under center and he is the highest-rated quarterback recruit Saban has ever had. This also might be the best Alabama defense we have seen in years.
On top of that, no one gets his team more prepared to start a season than Saban. Alabama is 11-2 ATS in the first game of the season since Saban took over the top job in Tuscaloosa. And, for the most part, these games haven’t been that close, with an average margin of victory of 28.9 points.
On the other side, Manny Diaz should have a solid team this year — one that should compete for the ACC Coastal crown. D’Eriq King is an electrifying QB and you know his defense, which returns nine starters, will create a ton of pressure throughout the season.
But this is King’s first game since tearing his ACL last December and he has to deal with the best linebacking corps in college football. They are good enough to keep King in the pocket as a passer, throwing into the teeth of a terrific Bama secondary.
Miami is a good team. Alabama is just better.
PREDICTION: Alabama -19.5 (-110)
Team Total Pick
It is unlikely that Alabama puts up the 48.5 points per game it did last fall, but that doesn't mean the offense won't be potent.
Young will have some capable weapons to work with on the outside, including John Metchie III and Ohio State transfer Jameson Willams. While Brian Robinson will have a chance to have a big season out of the backfield.
While Miami is known for having a ferocious defense that can get into the backfield, that aggressiveness burned them a bit last season, and they ended up allowing 27 points per game. That includes giving up 42 to Clemson, 41 to NC State, and 62 to UNC.
And as already noted, Alabama shows up in its first game of the season averaging 40.5 points per game over their last 14 openers. We're betting on another 40-burger in this one for 'Bama.
PREDICTION: Alabama Team Total Over 39.5 (-115)
Alabama vs Miami betting card
- Alabama -19.5 (-110)
- Alabama Team Total Over 39.5 (-115)
Picks made on 09/02/2021 at 11:45 p.m. ET
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