The 17-point road favorite Crimson Tide enter this SEC showdown angry and out for revenge, after Texas A&M upset Alabama last week.
Mississippi State has the unfortunate task of meeting Bama this week but the Bulldogs are coming off a bye, at home, and actually won in College Station in their previous game.
Find out who we like with our free college football betting picks and predictions for Alabama vs. Mississippi State on October 16.
Alabama vs Mississippi State odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Oddsmakers opened Alabama as 17-point road chalk and that's where the number remains as of Friday morning. The total hit the board at 59 and has been bet down slightly to 58.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Alabama vs Mississippi State picks
Picks made on 10/15/2021 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Alabama vs Mississippi State game info
• Location: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
• Date: Saturday, October 16, 2021
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Alabama vs Mississippi State betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Alabama: No key injuries to report.
Mississippi State: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 16-4-1 in the last 21 meetings between Alabama and Mississippi State. Find more NCAA betting trends for Alabama vs. Mississippi State.
Alabama vs Mississippi State predictions
Alabama -10 First Half Spread (-120)
It’s hard to know what to make of the spread in this game. Alabama is obviously the more talented bunch, and a prevailing thought could be that Mississippi State is about to walk into a buzzsaw of a ticked-off Tide team.
But of these two teams, the Bulldogs are the ones that actually walked out of Kyle Field with a victory, upsetting the Aggies 26-22 as 7-point road underdogs. But on the other hand, Mississippi State also has losses against LSU and Memphis.
Another concern for Bama backers could be the Bulldogs passing game. The Tide made Zach Calzada look like Peyton Manning. A guy who had been completing just 53.9 percent of his passes and had nearly as many picks (four) as touchdowns (five) prior to last week’s massive win.
Now, they have to deal with Mike Leach’s pass-happy offense led by quarterback Will Rogers, who has completed 75.7 percent of his passes for 1,862 yards with 14 touchdowns and just two picks.
Despite the loss for Bama, it still controls its own destiny to return to the SEC Championship game, and Nick Saban will have pushed his team hard in practice this week. The Tide are going against a Mississippi State defense that has struggled a bit against the pass. That said, this game feels like it has Bulldogs backdoor cover written all over it.
So, the safest bet should be Bama on the first-half spread. They had covered the first-half spread in 10 consecutive games against SEC opponents before last week’s game.
Under 58 (-110)
The total might be the safest play to make in this game.
While Mississippi State can move the ball through the air, this is a one-dimensional offense that can be inconsistent at times. Despite all the success Rogers has had, the Bulldogs have averaged just 26 points over their last four games. Now, they face an Alabama defense, that while it has its issues, they still rank 16th in total defense.
On the other side, we just saw what an effective pass rush can do against Bryce Young and the Crimson Tide. The Bulldogs, while not on the same level as Texas A&M, still have a very strong defensive front that should be able to put pressure on the Alabama offense. If they are able to get Young into a few third and long situations and some stops, this one should fall below this number.
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