Alabama vs South Florida Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Bama Ready to Turn the Tide in Tampa

The Alabama Crimson Tide will be looking for a punching bag after their loss at home last week to Texas, and the South Florida Bulls will be hoping they don’t provide just that on Saturday.

This is a very rare road game for the Crimson Tide against a non-Power Five conference school. Can the Bulls cover a huge spread in the college football odds?

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Alabama vs. South Florida at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay on September 16. 

Alabama vs South Florida best odds

Alabama vs South Florida picks and predictions

The Alabama Crimson Tide entered this season hoping to “turn the tide” in the SEC and overcome the Georgia dynasty that is building in their wake. Despite not playing a conference game yet, the season is off to a rough start after falling at home to Texas last weekend. 

After losing Bryce Young at quarterback, Jahmyr Gibbs at running back, and three starting offensive linemen, there were some concerns that Alabama may not have the offense to compete for a title. While redshirt sophomore Jalen Milroe looked great against Middle Tennessee State, the concerns became real against the Longhorns. 

Milroe threw two interceptions in the Texas game and he has been sacked seven times through the first two games. While the Crimson Tide are starting a true freshman at left tackle in Kadyn Proctor — who was the best OT in the 2023 class according to On3 Recruiting — Milroe has failed to stay in the pocket... even when there isn't immediate pressure. 

Rumors have swirled that Nick Saban will be switching quarterbacks to Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner. He would face a South Florida Bulls defense that has been a disaster against the pass so far, having allowed 374 passing yards to FCS opponent Florida A&M and 336 passing yards to Western Kentucky. Considering the Texas defense only allowed 149 passing yards to Rice in Week 1, Milroe's poor showing isn't all that damning for the Alabama passing game as a whole.

The Bulls are coming off a dreadful 1-11 season where they ranked 130th out of 131 programs in scoring defense by allowing 41.2 points per game. They also lost three of their top four tacklers from last season, and the defense has continued their struggles this season by giving up 41 points in a loss to Western Kentucky and 24 points to Florida A&M. 

Byrum Brown started the final two games of last year at QB for the Bulls and has continued to be the man under center in 2023. Despite racking up 183 rushing yards through the first two games, Brown is currently sporting a 51.4% completion percentage through two games.

As great as Brown is at running the ball, he has needed to run the ball because the offensive line is struggling. After losing four starters from last season, the O-line has already allowed 10 sacks this season. The Alabama defensive line will not be a welcome sign for an already struggling Bulls offensive line. 

Under Saban, I absolutely love it when Alabama faces teams in a spot where the spread is massive, as the Tide will typically jump out to a huge lead early before letting off the gas in the second half and getting younger guys more experience.

In this game, we can get a first half spread of 17.5 points. Bama should be able to rack up around 28-35 points in the first half, making the 1H spread my best bet.

My best bet: Alabama first half -17.5 (-144 at FanDuel)

Alabama vs South Florida same-game parlay

Alabama first half -17.5

First half Over 31.5

Alabama -27.5

Over 55.5

+225 at FanDuel

Taking the first half spread for the Tide will give us some good options to correlate with for a solid same-game parlay. 

The first half total is set at 31.5 points, and I already mentioned how I believe the Crimson Tide will reach this number themselves. South Florida is also unlikely to be completely shut out, so we will add the first half Over as a leg to our SGP.

Finally, we can add both the full game total and spread in alternate numbers. I'm adjusting the spread to 27.5 points to get under that four-touchdown number and also selecting a total of 55.5. A safe final score prediction of 42-14 would cover both numbers here. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Alabama vs South Florida spread and Over/Under analysis

We moved the spread in our same game parlay to be safe. If Alabama plays to its capacity, the Tide can win by any number they want. The Tide’s offense will be able to score at will if they play to their ability, and you can also count on Saban after a loss to get them right. 

Because we're banking on the Tide to light up the scoreboard, the Over is likely a solid play here. The USF offense may not be great, but the Bulls still can put points on the board. A mobile quarterback is always tough to defend and he could make a few plays with his legs, even if Bama plays shut down defense. 

I would only expect to need around 14-20 points from the Bulls for the Over to be a guarantee. Between Brown at quarterback and Nay’Quan Wright at running back, they should have enough playmakers to help the total go Over. 

Alabama vs South Florida betting trend to know

Alabama has hit the first half game total Over in five of its last eight games. Find more college football betting trends for Alabama vs South Florida.

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