Two of the country’s most talented teams look to play to their full potential despite recent stumbles as the No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1) head to Knoxville to face the No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers (5-1).
College football fans know what the “Third Saturday in October” brings, and the 2024 version of this rivalry is set up to be a thrilling one between two Top-15 teams.
Read on for my early Alabama vs. Tennessee predictions and college football picks for October 19.
Alabama vs Tennessee predictions
Early spread lean
Alabama -2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Tennessee Volunteers officially have a problem — the offense. This isn’t an issue that one would usually project for a Josh Huepel team, but it’s become clear after three straight games in which they have failed to eclipse 25 points or 345 total yards.
Those concerns led to a 19-14 loss to Arkansas in Week 6 and nearly led to another defeat in Week 7 as the Vols trailed Florida 10-0 at home late in the third quarter. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava possesses all the potential in the world, but he’s not a clear upgrade over Joe Milton, last year’s much-maligned starter, at present.
The Alabama Crimson Tide walk into this matchup with a clear advantage on offense as they rank 11th in EPA per play and fourth in explosiveness. They had two efficient performances against SEC opponents, averaging 8.4 yards per play against Georgia and 8.8 yards per play against Vanderbilt.
The Tide have been up-and-down this season and haven’t looked like a Top-5 team since halftime of the Georgia game. Ten quarters have passed since then, and public sentiment has fully turned against Kaleb DeBoer’s team.
While that reasoning holds merit, it doesn’t change the fact that Tennessee hasn’t looked great, either. The Vols have been massively overvalued in the betting market, failing to cover a 14-point spread in back-to-back weeks.
The Vols have a one-dimensional offense surrounding star running back Dylan Sampson (699 rushing yards, 15 touchdowns). That’s worked against previous outmatched opponents, but Alabama’s defensive strength is up front (eighth in PFF’s rush defense grade) and the sledding won’t be easy in this rivalry game.
It’s a decent matchup for Alabama because the Vols don’t appear ready to take advantage of their leaky secondary. Offensively, Jalen Milroe and Ryan Williams, who have led the way to rankings of seventh in passing success rate and 13th in EPA per pass, can challenge a Vols secondary that ranks 81st in passing success rate despite facing an easy group of opposing aerial attacks.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 56.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
My favorite bet in this game is the Under at 56.5.
Tennessee’s offense has been stunted for a month and I’ll need to see signs of improvement before believing this unit is ready to break out. Alabama’s defense isn’t perfect (34th in EPA per play), but its main liability is a youthful secondary (52nd in EPA per pass, 101st in passing explosiveness).
Iamaleava has just seven big-time throws (per PFF) compared to six turnover-worthy passes. He’s coming off two underwhelming performances, averaging 5.4 yards per attempt against a beatable Arkansas secondary and 6.5 yards per attempt against a Florida secondary that ranks 76th in EPA per pass.
Three of Alabama’s highest-graded defenders (and five of its top seven) reside on the defensive front. Linebackers Jidaad Campbell (5.5 TFLs) and Deontae Laweson (4.0 TFLs, 81.0 rush defense grade per PFF) are a fearsome duo while Quandarrius Robinson (7.0 TFLs, four sacks) has been a game-wrecker along the defensive line.
On the flip side, Alabama’s offense line has some concerning numbers. The Tide rank 102nd in line yards, 106th in stuff rate, and 97th in front-seven havoc). Tennessee has arguably the nation’s best defensive line, so it may be difficult for DeBoer’s offense to operate with its usual deadly intent.
James Pearce Jr. will likely be selected within the first five picks of the NFL Draft and leads the way for a Vols front that ranks first in front-seven havoc and power success rate, fourth in line yards, and second in stuff rate.
This Tennessee defense was dominant in its first four games but has shown a few signs of weakness lately, allowing 434 total yards on 5.9 yards per play against Arkansas and 361 total yards on 5.0 yards per play against Florida. I anticipate the Tide scoring enough to cover the short spread while still dealing with plenty of disruptions up front against an elite Vols front seven playing at home in a raucous environment.
Alabama vs Tennessee live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
