Alabama vs Tennessee Odds, Picks and Predictions: Crimson Tide Relying on Young's Status

It’s the biggest football game Knoxville's seen in a very long time, as No. 6 Tennessee aims to knock off No. 3 Alabama in a massive SEC throw-down at Neyland Stadium this afternoon. 

The Rocky Top turnaround under Josh Heupel has been remarkable. The Volunteers enter this game a perfect 5-0 with arguably the best offense in the country, led by quarterback Hendon Hooker. Now, they get to play a Crimson Tide side that, although also sporting a flawless record, has definitely looked vulnerable at times. 

But the big question here is, will reigning Heisman winner Bryce Young be back under center for Bama? And if he is, is there value with the Tide laying just a touchdown?

I break it all down and give you my best bet in our college football picks and predictions for Alabama vs. Tennessee on Saturday, October 15. 

Alabama vs Tennessee best odds

Alabama vs Tennessee picks and predictions

Alabama is undefeated and ranked No. 3 in the latest AP poll. Yet, something feels off about this year’s edition of the Crimson Tide. 

Bama barely edged Texas 20-19 back in Week 2, and Bryce Young couldn’t get in a rhythm. The team committed way too many penalties, and the Longhorns were without quarterback Quinn Ewers for half the game. 

Then last week, they survived a scare from Texas A&M, where the Aggies had a chance to win the game on the final play but managed to hold on for a 24-20 win. Even though Young didn’t play in that game, the Crimson Tide were still 23.5-point favorites. 

On the other side, Tennessee comes in flying high with five straight wins. This includes a nice win vs. Florida and a dominating performance against LSU in Death Valley over the last two weeks. Hendon Hooker has the offense ranked first in total offense and second in scoring offense. 

All that said, if Young does return (and I expect him to with Alabama still laying a touchdown on the road), Tennessee is going to have a really tough time slowing him down. 

That’s because the Vols' pass defense is not good. In fact, it stinks. Tennessee ranks 128th in the country, giving up 307.4 passing yards per game. And outside of Kedon Slovis (who only played a half for Pittsburgh, mind you), the Vols have played absolutely nobody that can really pass. 

On top of that, Tennessee has lost two starting defensive backs as Warren Burrell had season-ending surgery, and Jaylen McCollough is facing a team suspension. 

Even at 80%, Young should be able to take advantage of that. I’m betting that Young returns and picks apart a shaky Vols' secondary as the Tide roll over their team total.

My best bet: Alabama team total Over 36.5 (-125 at DraftKings)

Alabama vs Tennessee spread analysis

Like I said before, this line of Alabama seems to be a pretty good indication that sportsbooks think Young is going to play in this game. I also think Nick Saban thought he could get away without playing him against Texas A&M last week without the game being as close as it ended up being.

Well, Saban can breathe a sigh of relief and focus on Tennessee now. But let’s get this out of the way immediately. Just because I think Young returns and puts up points doesn’t mean Alabama will cover this spread. This is a very losable game for the Crimson Tide, considering the way they have played this season. 

While the defense has some great numbers, edge rusher Will Anderson still seems like the only difference-maker on that unit. Plus, as we saw in the games against the Longhorns and Aggies, the secondary can get beat deep at times. Additionally, Tennessee is going to throw deep at least once or twice in this one. 

Between Young’s injury and Tennessee’s offense against a sometimes-great Bama defense, this is a tough game to handicap. What we do know, however, is that Neyland Stadium will be bumping. This fan base is dying for a signature win. 

Alabama is a very public team. If/when Young gets confirmed that he will play, there will certainly be a wave of Bama money coming in. So if you like Bama, act soon. If you are feeling Tennessee, wait for that Tide money and hopefully get more than a touchdown at home.

Alabama vs Tennessee Over/Under analysis.

I’m already on the Over for the Alabama team total, thanks to hopefully a Young return, going against a suspect Tennessee secondary. Meanwhile, arguably the best offense in the country is on the other side of the field, with the Volunteers averaging 547.8 total yards and 46.8 points per game this season. 

The only thing that gives me a little pause when it comes to the full-game total is the Alabama defense. I laid out how the Vols can be successful in this matchup, but this unit still ranks first in the country in opponent yards per play at just 3.6 and have played a much tougher schedule than Tennessee. 

While I like the Over, it’s definitely more of a lean as opposed to an official play. 

Alabama vs Tennessee betting trend to know

The Over is 7-3-1 in Alabama's last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 6-0 in Tennessee's last six at home. Find more NCAA betting trends for Alabama vs. Tennessee.

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