Arizona State vs Oregon State Picks and Predictions: Beavers Stay Perfect at Home

With both teams still technically alive in the Pac-12 conference race, the showdown between Arizona State (7-3) and Oregon State (6-4) is sure to be a hard-fought contest. Both teams need other pieces to fall in their favor but have an outside shot in the conference.

The Beavers have been a different team at home (5-0) than on the road (1-4). Will this be only the second Oregon State team in history to stay undefeated at home, or will the road favorites establish dominance?

Read our picks and predictions for the Arizona State Sun Devils vs. the Oregon State Beavers on Saturday, November 20 to find out.

Arizona State vs Oregon State odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Arizona State opened -2.5 but has been bet up to -3 at the time of this writing. The total opened at 59.5. and currently sits at 59. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Arizona State vs Oregon State predictions

• Prediction: Oregon State +3 (-105)
• Prediction: Over 59 (-107)
• Best bet: Over 59 (-107)

Predictions made on 11/19/2021 at 8:10 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Arizona State vs Oregon State game info

• Location: Reser Stadium, Corvallis, OR
• Date: Saturday, November 20, 2021
• Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Arizona State vs Oregon State betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

Arizona State: Henry Hattis OL (Questionable), Andre Johnson WR (Questionable), Johnny Wilson WR (Questionable), Curtis Hodges TE (Questionable), Jalin Conyers TE (Questionable), Evan Fields DB (Questionable), Willie Harts DB (Questionable).
Oregon State: Jake Levengood OL (Questionable), Nous Keobounnam OL (Questionable), Isaac Hodgins DL (Questionable), Addison Gumbs LB (Out), Alton Julian DB (Out).

Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two schools. Find more NCAA betting trends for Arizona State vs. Oregon State.

Arizona State vs Oregon State picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

This should be a closely contested battle between two relatively even teams. Arizona State does hold a slight edge in efficiency, averaging 6.7 yards per play offensively and 4.9 defensively. The Beavers have an effective offense, managing 6.5 yards per play, but a beatable defense allowing 5.7.

That being said, games aren’t played in the box score — they’re played on the field. Let's talk about that field. The Beavers have been a machine at home, going 5-0 both overall and ATS. While it’s warm and sunny in Tempe for the Sun Devils, this game will be played in Corvallis, where the temperature is expected to be in the 30s.

Both teams offer Top-20 running games, with Oregon State ranked 7th at 231.2 yards per game and Arizona State ranked 20th at 214.2 yards per game. That being said, the Sun Devils are more adept at defending the run (128.5 yards per game allowed) than the Beavers (143.2), so it should be considered mostly a wash in that department.

If the Sun Devils aren’t able to have an advantage on the ground, they’ll have to rely on other variables. Unfortunately for them, most of the other variables point to the home team. Arizona State has struggled to take care of the football, with 20 turnovers on the season, while the Beavers have only 13 giveaways. Oregon State’s weakness lies in the secondary (91st in passing yards per game allowed), but Arizona State doesn’t appear equipped to best take advantage, averaging only 211.9 yards per game.

We’ll back the home team catching points in what appears to be a very close matchup on paper. 

Prediction: Oregon State +3 (-105)

Over/Under analysis

For all the positives listed about Oregon State above, the defense is a concern. Sure, it held a quarterback-less Stanford team to 14 points last week. Before that, opponents managed over 30 points in four straight games. The Sun Devils have mustered over 30 points in back-to-back contests, led by running back Rachaad White (1,202 scrimmage yards, 15 TDs). It’s hard to imagine the Sun Devils not getting their points.

The Beavers are an offensive-minded football team that has been able to impose their will up front on the majority of teams they’ve faced, rushing for over 200 yards in seven games. Other than the hiccup at Colorado, this has been an efficient offense all year long, led by running back B.J. Baylor (1,041 yards from scrimmage, 12 TDs) and a bruising offensive line. The Beavers have managed 35 or more points in four of five home games this season, and that could continue Saturday night.

Prediction: Over 59 (-107)

Best bet

Both offenses are averaging over 30 points per game, and this total really should be in the 60s. 

Not only do the statistics back up there being lots of points, but the trends do as well. The Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these schools, and 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Corvallis. The Beavers are 5-1 to the Over in their last six as a home underdog.

We believe that there’s value in playing the Over, and that’s our best bet.

Pick: Over 59 (-107)

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