The Arizona Wildcats are one of the hottest teams in the country and are building some serious momentum over the stretch run.
After three straight wins against ranked opponents, Jedd Fisch’s squad looks to keep the good times rolling as it heads to Boulder to face Deion "Coach Prime" Sanders’ Colorado Buffaloes.
The Buffaloes started the year as the talk of the college football world. That seems like a lifetime ago now as they’ve lost five of their last six games and will need to pull off two more upsets to simply reach bowl eligibility.
One team is surging while the other is falling ignominiously. Will those trends continue in Week 11 college football odds?
Read on for my best bet and full college football picks for Arizona vs. Colorado on Saturday, November 11.
Arizona vs Colorado best odds
Arizona vs Colorado picks and predictions
There’s some unrest behind the scenes in Boulder regarding who is calling offensive plays. Despite having a strong record of success coaching offense and taking a demotion from Kent State’s head coach to the Colorado Buffaloes offensive coordinator this past offseason, Sean Lewis is allegedly no longer the play caller after that honor was given to analyst Pat Shurmur before last week’s game.
Results across the last two games have been disastrous. The Buffs managed just 242 total yards on 3.6 yards per play against UCLA and 238 total yards on 4.1 yards per play against Oregon State. The offensive line is difficult to fix (or nearly impossible to) over one year in the transfer portal and that’s been evident in Boulder as this unit has been overwhelmed for much of the year and checks in at 111th in front-seven havoc.
The Arizona Wildcats' strength is in the defensive line, a group that was aided by several high-impact transfers and has paved the way to rankings of 24th in front-seven havoc and 28th in stuff rate. This could be another long day at the office for Colorado’s makeshift offensive staff and inundated offensive line.
The defensive turnaround has been drastic for Arizona in 2023. After being one of the worst stop units in the nation a year ago, defensive coordinator Johnny Nansen and his staff have coached up a group surrendering just 19.8 PPG and 334.2 total yards per game. Compare that to last year’s numbers — 36.5 PPG and 467.7 total yards per game — and it’s evident that this staff not only has done a tremendous job but the program hit a few home runs in the portal.
The offense has continued to hum after losing quarterback Jayden de Laura to injury a few weeks ago as Noah Fifita has stepped in and performed so admirably that he’s all but taken away the gig. Fifita has completed 76.2% of his passes for 14 touchdowns and just four interceptions while leading an offense that checks into this contest fifth nationally in success rate and 13th in EPA per play.
One would expect Arizona to move the chains consistently in this spot against a soft Colorado defense that ranks 125th in EPA per play and 124th in success rate. The Buffs are allowing 469 total yards per game on 6.2 yards per play and have been consistently beaten in conference play. The Wildcats should be able to run the ball with ease — they’ve been tremendously efficient on the ground (fourth in rushing success rate) while the Buffs (102nd in rushing success rate, 109th in EPA per rush) haven’t offered much resistance upfront.
Some might call this a trap game for Arizona, which is coming off five straight games against ranked opponents and has a home game against Utah on deck. This bettor is more concerned about the play on the field and the direction of both teams rather than the scheduling dynamics.
The vibes are tremendous in Tucson. Something is rotten in the state of Colorado — the defense has been broken all year, and now the offense is too. The offensive guru has been demoted as play-caller and the Heisman Trophy odds contender quarterback (after Week 3, anyway) is less than 100% health-wise.
Arizona is the better team on both sides of the ball and is brimming with confidence with a chance to make serious waves in the Pac-12 across these final three weeks. Colorado, meanwhile, is in freefall. Give me the Wildcats to cover their ninth game in 10 tries.
My best bet: Arizona -10.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Arizona vs Colorado same-game parlay
Arizona -10.5
Jonah Coleman Over 61.5 rushing yards
Travis Hunter 70+ receiving yards
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For our SGP, we're combining my best bet on Arizona against the spread with a pair of player props.
The first will be Wildcats running back Jonah Coleman to go Over his rushing yardage prop of 61.5, which appears far too low in such a favorable matchup. Coleman has taken over as the leader in the backfield as Week 1 starter Michael Wiley continues to deal with an ankle injury. Wiley missed Weeks 5 through 7 and hasn’t been fully healthy since returning, notably leaving last week’s game in the third quarter after reinjuring his ankle.
Coleman has rushed for at least 70 yards in three of his last four games and now faces a soft Colorado front. I nearly chose this prop as my best bet and think we’re getting 15–20 yards of value in the line.
The second player prop and final leg of the SGP will be Colorado wide receiver (and cornerback!) Travis Hunter to record at least 70 receiving yards. He has at least eight receptions in three of his five healthy games this season and has summited the 70-yard plateau in four of those contests. He will remain a large part of this offense and this number is too low against an Arizona secondary ranking 62nd in passing success rate.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Arizona vs Colorado spread and Over/Under analysis
Arizona opened as low as -6 last week. By the time betting lines came out at other locations this past Sunday, it was up to -8.5 and has since moved to -10.5. The total resides between 54.5 and 55.5 depending on the location.
The Wildcats have been a hilarious team to follow in the betting markets this year because they cover nearly every game (8-1 ATS) while also hitting the Under (1-8 O/U). That’s about as stark of a contrast as you’ll see, and it happens to be for both the side and the total. They have covered five straight while hitting the Under three times in a row.
If you’re looking for a bet on the total, consider that Fisch’s squad has cashed the first half Under in 12 straight games. There’s reason to believe that could be the case again here as the Wildcats’ strong defensive front seeks to stop the Buffs dead in their tracks.
On the other side of the ball, Arizona’s offense has been very efficient (fifth in success rate) but far from explosive (116th in explosiveness). That checks out with how well they’ve run the ball and the fact that Fifita has a high completion percentage as he makes the safe throws while avoiding danger.
Arizona vs Colorado betting trend to know
Arizona is 8-1 ATS this year and has covered five games in a row. Find more college football betting trends for Arizona vs Colorado.
Arizona vs Colorado game info
| Location: | Folsom Field, Boulder, CO |
| Date: | Saturday, November 11, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | PAC12 |
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