The Arizona Wildcats travel to take on the San Diego Aztecs in the first game for either team. The Wildcats went 1-11 last season and are picked to be near the cellar of the Pac-12 yet again.
The Aztecs went 12-2 last year and return a defense that was one of the best in the country. San Diego State went to Tucson last year and clobbered the Wildcats, 38-14.
Can the Aztecs repeat last year’s performance against Arizona? Check out our free college football picks and predictions for Arizona vs. San Diego State on September 3.
Arizona vs San Diego State odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Aztecs opened as 11.5-point favorites but that number plummeted to 6.5 at most places, though FanDuel has SDSU favored by 5.5 points. The Wildcats are +210 on the moneyline, while the Aztecs are -227. The total started at 50.5 but has slipped to 46, with the Over and Under both at -110.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Arizona vs San Diego State predictions
Predictions made on 9/1/2022 at 6:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Arizona vs San Diego State game info
• Location: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA
• Date: Saturday, September 3, 2022
• Kick-off: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Arizona vs San Diego State betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Betting trend to know
The Aztecs defeated Arizona 38-14 in Tucson last year. Find more NCAA betting trends for Arizona vs. San Diego State.
Arizona vs San Diego State picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
It always makes me nervous when there is a big increase/decrease in the spread. The San Diego State Aztecs began as 11.5-point favorites, but that line came out in the Spring and dropped to 6.5 two weeks later, so I’m not putting much emphasis on it.
Besides, I am backing the Aztecs and I like that I don’t have to lay as many points, though I do believe they will have their way with the Wildcats.
The Aztecs have a new quarterback in former Oregon Duck and Virginia Tech Hokie Braxton Burmeister, who transferred to SDSU and will be responsible for continuing an attack that was one of the best in the Mountain West.
Fortunately, Aztecs head coach Brady Hoke has an offensive philosophy that is heavy on the run and fits Burmeister’s skill set. Last year for the Hokies, Burmeister ran for 521 yards on 117 carries, an average of 4.5 yards per carry.
When he does throw the ball, he’ll have senior Jesse Matthews, who had nine touchdowns last year. They did suffer a blow when returning senior wideout TJ Sullivan tore his ACL and will be lost for the season.
The transfer portal was kind to the Aztecs and should help with depth issues at the position. Wide receiver Tyrell Shavers (Mississippi State, Alabama) and tight end Mark Redman (Washington) chose to come to the Aztecs.
The Wildcats were 14th in passing yards allowed at 190.1 in 2021. The secondary is the strength of the defense and with all four members of the secondary returning, should be strong once again.
Second-year head coach Jedd Fisch did a good job of recruiting, filling needs at linebacker and defensive end, but it will be hard to replace LB Anthony Pandy. The running game of the Aztecs, which averaged 174.9 yards per game last year (54th), should be too much for them to handle.
In addition, Arizona has a new defensive coordinator, so it remains to be seen if Johnny Nansen can get the defense prepared to stop the powerful SDSU offense.
Remember, the Wildcats have won two of their last 24 games. They got trounced last season at home and will get the same treatment on Saturday.
Prediction: San Diego State -5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
Last year, the Aztecs buried the Wildcats 38-14 and I expect a similar score on Saturday. The only difference might be more points from Arizona.
The Wildcats' offense got an upgrade at quarterback when Washington State transfer Jayden de Laura, who was the conference's Offensive Freshman of the Year last season, chose to come to Arizona. De Laura threw for 2,798 yards on 227 of 359 passing for a 63.2 completion rate and a 144.8 quarterback rating.
In the 12 games he played last year for the Huskies, the lowest number of points scored was 19. They averaged 29.1 points a game and de Laura had 23 TDs. His new teammates might even forgive him for the 44-18 loss he handed them last year, where he threw for a season-high four touchdowns.
Having a similar performance against the Aztecs is going to be far more difficult. SDSU was 14th in total yards allowed per game at 319.6, including 242 yards passing. The Aztecs return most of their secondary, including All-American safety Patrick McMorris.
Arizona, however, should get some points on the board. It was an emphasis of Fisch’s offense this year after the team was 124th in scoring and 101st in points. The receiving corps got an upgrade when they landed Tetairoa McMillan, one of the most sought-after recruits at the position. They also got Dorian Singer, who returns after a strong season, and Jacob Cowing from UTEP.
The Wildcats have hit the Over in their last six games against Mountain West opponents and 3-1-1 in their last five overall.
Scoring shouldn’t be a problem for San Diego State. They averaged 27.4 points last year and have a more mobile quarterback this season. The Over is 4-0 in the team’s last non-conference games.
I’m a bit surprised the total has come down to 46 from 50.5. The offenses should prevail in going Over.
Prediction: Over 46 (-110 at WynnBET)
Best bet
In last year’s game, San Diego State came out blazing in Tucson, hanging 35 points on the Wildcats before halftime. Arizona even contributed to the Over, scoring a touchdown in the first quarter.
I anticipate a similar performance from the Aztecs. This game will be the first in their new stadium and there is going to be motivation to win in their new digs.
Enthusiasm only gets you so far, however. Fortunately, the Aztecs are well-stocked with talent. One concern was losing running back Greg Bell, who tallied 1,091 yards last year.
Hoke’s philosophy is always reloading rather than rebuilding and while Bell’s absence will be felt, his departure is not as severe as it could have been with other programs losing a star.
The Aztecs will have a quartet of running backs that should see action. seniors Chance Bell, who ran for 341 yards and four TDs, as well as Jordan Byrd, who added 246 yards and three scores, will be the main ball carriers. Redshirt freshman Jaylon Armstead and USC transfer Kenan Christon will also see some time in the backfield.
The Wildcats are also eager to make a good impression. Fisch should try and press early, which will either results in scores for Arizona or turnovers that set up points for the Aztecs. Either way, Over backers should benefit.
Pick: First-half Over 23.5 (+100 at DraftKings)
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