Arizona vs USC Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Trojans Defense Keeps Falling Flat

Lincoln Riley’s USC Trojans will aim to stay undefeated when they host Jedd Fisch’s Arizona Wildcats on Saturday night.

Caleb Williams, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, leads the nation’s top-scoring offense against a Wildcats team looking to cause a little bit of chaos in Week 6’s nightcap. 

Looking at the college football odds, the Trojans are expected to win this one at home by over three touchdowns. Although the offense has been terrific, the defense still has plenty of questions to answer after allowing Coach Prime’s team to storm back for 27 second-half points a week ago. 

See if I’m betting on a defensive revival in Southern California — or not — in my best bet below and stay tuned for my free college football picks for Arizona vs. USC on October 7. 

Arizona vs USC best odds

Arizona vs USC picks and predictions

Caleb Williams and the USC Trojans feature the nation’s top scoring offense at 53.6 points per game. It’s been the same story as last year, however, as a struggling defense drags them down and threatens to hold this team back from achieving the greatest heights.

It hasn’t cost the Trojans yet this year as the schedule has been laughably soft, but there are plenty of question marks going forward after back-to-back underwhelming outings against Arizona State and Colorado.

There's some news to monitor on Arizona’s side as starting quarterback Jayden de Laura missed last week’s contest with a sprained ankle and is considered questionable this Saturday. Frankly, I’d be surprised if suits up considering his injury was initially described as a high-ankle sprain by those covering the team, and playing two weeks later would be a quick turnaround. 

Noah Fifita stepped in against Washington and performed competently, completing 69.2% of his passes for 232 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception. The offense didn’t have much explosiveness as it featured a lot of checkdowns, which is something you could expect to see again if the diminutive Fifita is under center in Week 6.

That’s not necessarily a bad thing considering the Wildcats have already lost one game due to de Laura’s erraticness despite two terrific receiving weapons in Jacob Cowing and Tetairoa McMillian.

Colorado hasn’t been able to run the ball a lick all year long yet racked up 193 yards and two scores on the ground against this Trojans defense a week ago. That continues a worrying trend as ASU’s Cameron Skattebo looked like Toby Gerhart in Week 4.

Despite Arizona’s top running back Michael Wiley dealing with an injury, it wouldn’t be at all surprising if the Wildcats are able to move the ball in this matchup as they have more-than-serviceable backs in Jonah Coleman and DJ Williams waiting in the wings to form an impressive second unit along with Fifita. 

Arizona ranks 19th in EPA per rush and third in rushing success rate behind a strong offensive line checking in at 11th in line yards and led by potential first-round NFL Draft pick Jordan Morgan at left tackle.

USC hasn’t shown any toughness up front, checking in at 95th in line yards defensively. They don’t tackle well and it shows, ranking 125th in EPA per rush, 120th in rushing explosiveness, and 97th in PFF’s tackling metric. 

The numbers point in the direction of the underdog. Arizona checks in at 25th in EPA per play and sixth in success rate on the offensive side of the ball, and 54th in EPA per play and 80th in success rate on defense. Put those two together and you don’t arrive far off from a USC team checking in at second in EPA per play and fifth in success rate offensively but just 84th in EPA per play and 55th in success rate defensively. 

The above metrics are not what you’d expect to see from a game lined above three touchdowns. While neither team has played an overly difficult schedule, USC has faced one of the easiest slates of opponents in the nation to start the year (119th in ESPN’s FPI strength of schedule rankings).

At least Arizona has played a few teams with a pulse, including Washington last week, checking in at 67th on that same list from FPI. The last cherry on top is that USC is +4 in turnover margin while Arizona is -5, so if that normalizes in this matchup (especially without de Laura), this one should be much tighter than the line indicates. 

Arizona’s two losses this season both came by just seven points. The first was against Mississippi State when the Wildcats won the yardage battle 431 to 307 but turned the ball over five times in a 31-24 loss. The second occurred last week when it played well but nonetheless lost 31-24 to a Washington team that was simply the superior side. 

Washington is playing better football than USC right now, so I’m now sure why the expectation is for the Wildcats to turn around and get blown out. I’ll take the underdog plus the points.

My best bet: Arizona +21.5 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Arizona vs USC same-game parlay

Arizona +21.5 (-110)

Arizona TT Over 24.5 (-105)

+144 at DraftKings

This is essentially a two-leg SGP fading USC’s defense. Two bad games are one thing, but two bad games after an offseason where the coaching staff assured the media it had fixed the issues that ultimately curtailed last year’s team is too much to ignore. 

The staff is getting underwhelming play from its linebackers and insists on starting true freshman Tackett Curtis despite his abysmal 45.6 defensive grade according to PFF — worst on the team among qualified players.

The defensive front is creating havoc (sixth nationally in front seven havoc) but has not proven it can stop opposing rushing attacks whatsoever. I’ll fade this unit until I see reasons to think otherwise. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Arizona vs USC spread and Over/Under analysis

USC is just over a three-touchdown favorite, opening at -22 before being bet down half a point to -21.5 at current. The total resides between 71.5 and 72 depending on the book. 

I have a play on Arizona against the spread as outlined in my best bet section above. While Arizona hasn’t played particularly well this season, it also hasn’t played like a three-touchdown underdog to a USC team struggling mightily on one side of the ball for a second straight year. 

Maybe USC’s defense will turn it around at some point. The staff did vastly improve the talent on that side of the ball through the portal this offseason, after all.

Still, I’m going to need to see it before I believe it as tackling is a huge issue with this program and I’m questioning defensive coordinator Alex Grinch’s ability to lead a championship-caliber defense. I’m not in the minority in that opinion as it seems basically everyone other than Riley is questioning Grinch’s role. 

There were calls for Fifita to start even before de Laura got hurt. While JDL is a talented player, he makes far too many mistakes and Fifita has such a talented group of pass catchers at his disposal that simply making the right reads and getting the ball to his wide receivers could lead to a productive enough day from this offense to stay in range. If JDL does return for this matchup then hey, I still like the number as long as he doesn’t toss four picks. 

The total is high, but Arizona’s defense will likely be exposed at some point after holding Washington to 31 points but surrendering 7.2 yards per play as the Wildcats dropped eight defenders and let the Huskies dink and dunk to a victory.

USC will score its points as it nearly always does and the Wildcats should find the endzone a few times as well, so I have a slight lean toward the Over. 

Arizona vs USC betting trend to know

 Arizona is 4-1 ATS this season. Find more college football betting trends for Arizona vs USC.

Arizona vs USC game info

Arizona vs USC latest injuries

Arizona vs USC weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic