Arkansas vs LSU Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Jefferson Puts on Deluxe Performance

It's a primetime SEC clash when the Arkansas Razorbacks trek to Louisiana to take on the No. 12 LSU Tigers as 17-point underdogs in the college football odds.

For the Razorbacks, it'll be the first conference matchup of the season. They took it on the chin last week in a 7-point loss to BYU that saw over 70 points scored. It was Arkansas's first loss of the season, having previously dispatched two non-Power 5 opponents.

LSU looked potent last week in its first conference game against Mississippi State. It scored early and often, winning 41-14. It was the second straight game the Tigers were able to eclipse the 40-point mark. The pair will also play for a trophy on Saturday in the "Battle of the Boot."

What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our free college football picks and predictions for Arkansas vs. LSU on Saturday, September 23.

Arkansas vs LSU best odds

Arkansas vs LSU and predictions

Despite everything against us last week, we got our best bet home the previous week in LSU vs. Mississippi State.

LSU jumped on State early, and you would have thought that Jo'quavious Marks would have never exceeded his rushing yards due to game script. To make matters worse, Bulldogs quarterback Will Rogers was having one of the worst games of his career, and the Tigers stacked the box because they didn't fear him through the air.

Despite all this, Marks reached 75 yards on just eight carries. That speaks loudly to the problematic nature of what's going on with LSU's defense. We're targeting that defense again with our best bet this week.

"We can't just go in and tackle high and expect to bring him down," LSU defensive end Sai'vion Jones said of Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson's rushing ability. "The emphasis on him is to make sure we hit him nice and low."

I'm going to need to see it to believe it. Watching Florida State vs. LSU to open the season, I was surprised how little the Noles tested LSU on the ground. Eventually, they used the rushing attack to ice the game. Still, throughout the night, my eyes told me that the LSU interior rushing defense had some serious issues. My eyes haven't lied — that's what the numbers have told us.

LSU ranks 109th in total EPA against the run and 115th in EPA per attempt. In addition to that, the Tigers will enter this contest with the fewest tackle yards in the SEC.

That last stat is likely the most troubling for this matchup when facing Jefferson's rushing attack. KJ Jefferson has routinely broken tackles throughout his career and has done it with success a few times this season, including when he ran for 4.8 yards per carry against Kent State two weeks ago. I do not trust LSU to do enough to keep him under his rushing prop.

In addition to those aforementioned stats, LSU ranks second-to-last in the SEC in sacks, so we shouldn't worry too much about lost yards there. Also, despite getting blown out last week, Mississippi State ended the game with more PPA on the ground than LSU. That was aided by 4.2 open field yards per rush — an aspect that Jefferson should also be able to care for.

Not only has LSU struggled to get into the backfield, but its linebackers have also struggled at the second level to contain the open-field yards. The 6-foot-3, 247-pound Jefferson isn't exactly the guy you want to see when you have those issues.

My best bet: KJ Jefferson Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Arkansas vs LSU same-game parlay

KJ Jefferson Over 34.5 Rushing Yards

AJ Green Anytime Touchdown

Over 54.5

+544 at FanDuel

We're taking our best bet and pairing two plays with it for our same-game parlay.

The first of these is AJ Green to score a touchdown. It's a coin-flip of whom you want to choose here between Green and Jefferson. I landed on Green because of the second-level yards he can get with his breakaway 40-yard-dash time rumored to be around 4.4.

I finished up things with the Over. I've talked about the LSU defensive issues, but there are plenty on the other side too. BYU's wide receivers had great success with yards after the catch last weekend, and this LSU core is a significant step up from them.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Arkansas vs LSU spread and Over/Under analysis

This is too many points for LSU to cover, but I need help to trust this Arkansas team.

Why would the Razorbacks cover? Well, we've talked about it. This LSU team has yet to prove they should be trusted to defend a potent rushing attack. Arkansas will bring a two-headed monster to Baton Rouge in Jefferson and Green. It's 24th in total rushing EPA, and if it can stay out of obvious passing downs and control the trenches, it can cover and be in the game late.

Why won't they? Arkansas' defense looked awful last week against BYU. The Cougs put up 38 points on this Arkansas defense. That's the same BYU that opened the season with a 14-0 win against Sam Houston. What will happen when Jayden Daniels and Malik Nabers attack this defense? 

A spread side is a stay-away for me, but if forced to pick, I lean toward taking the 17.5 points with Arkansas. 

As for the total, I'm a fan of the Over 54.5 at FanDuel. I discussed it above in my same-game parlay, but I will also place a solo unit on it.

Two of Arkansas's first three games this season have gone Over. That continues a trend of seven of its last 10 going Over. On the other side, all of LSU's games this season have gone Over, which continues a trend of seven straight Overs dating back to last season.  

Arkansas vs LSU betting trend to know

Arkansas has hit the 1H Game Total Over in eight of its last 12 games (+4.65 Units / 35% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Arkansas vs LSU.

Arkansas vs LSU game info

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