Arkansas vs Mississippi State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Rogers Lights Up the Razorbacks' Weak Defense

It’s an SEC West showdown on Saturday afternoon, as the Arkansas Razorbacks look to end a two-game skid when they travel to Starkville for a matchup with Mississippi State.

Mike Leach has his offense flying high, with quarterback Will Rogers putting up video-game numbers this season. As for the Hogs, they’re running the ball well but could be without star quarterback KJ Jefferson in this one.

It should be an exciting game for those who love offensive firepower. Join us as we break it down in our college football picks and predictions for Arkansas vs Mississippi State on Saturday, October 8.

Arkansas vs Mississippi State best odds

Arkansas vs Mississippi State picks and predictions

On just 13 pass attempts last week against Arkansas, Alabama quarterback Bryce Young threw for 173 yards. His backup, Jalen Milroe, threw for 65 on nine attempts. That’s 238 yards on 22 attempts, with only half of those being completions.

Mississippi State QB Will Rogers hasn’t completed fewer than 22 passes this season, and I'm expecting him to hit 22 attempts before halftime. He’s completing better than 73% of his throws this season at a clip of 7.32 yards per attempt and just over 10 yards per completion.

Only LSU has held him below 313 yards so far this season. He’s now thrown for 300 or more yards and three touchdowns in the same game in 13 of his 27 starts under Leach. Rogers is coming off a game against Texas A&M, where he threw for 329 yards. The number would have been higher, but Mississippi State threw just six passes for 30 yards in the fourth quarter as it was in control of the game.

That may not be the case against Arkansas, who feature one of the best rushing attacks in all of college football and who can put points up in bunches and keep pace with the Bulldogs. Arkansas has one of the worst pass defenses in the country, allowing a staggering 8.7 yards per pass attempt and 272.5 yards per game on an average of 31.3 passes per game.

Rogers is averaging nearly 48 attempts per game in 2022. If he hits his season averages in attempts and yards per pass attempt in this game, the total would come out to nearly 420 yards passing. That’s almost 100 yards more than his game total for this one, which is why I’m all over him to fly past that number on Saturday.

My best bet: Rogers Over 331.5 passing yards (-135 at DraftKings)

Arkansas vs Mississippi State spread analysis

Mississippi State is favored for good reason, but the Bulldogs should become bigger favorites if QB KJ Jefferson is ruled out. He took a hit to the head against Alabama, and it’s looking more and more likely that Cade Fortin will replace him behind center on Saturday.

That’s a major reason why the line jumped quickly when it opened early this week, with Arkansas going from laying 5.5 to being nine-point favorites. The Razorbacks' status as an underdog certainly isn’t helped by the fact that they’re one of the worst pass defenses in the country.

In terms of covering the spread, the road team has failed to do so just twice in their last nine matchups. The Bulldogs have covered in five of their last six games against a team with a winning record, while the Hogs have not covered the spread in two of their last three games.

Arkansas vs Mississippi State Over/Under analysis

Jefferson’s status has also had a huge impact on the total. After opening at 62 points, it has dropped throughout the week by nearly five points. Arkansas scored 30 or more in its three wins to open the season, with each game seeing at least 55 points.

However, the Razorbacks scored fewer than 27 in each of the last two. Their game last week against Alabama saw 75 points put on the board. Mississippi State has been involved in quite a few high-scoring games this season, with three of them having topped 57.5 points so far. Each of the Bulldogs' last two outings has seen 59 or more points scored, and they’ve scored at least 39 points themselves in four games.

Those who like trends will want to favor the Over. 11 of the last 15 meetings between the Hogs and the Bulldogs have gone Over, including five of the last seven in Starkville. The Over has also hit in five of Mississippi State’s last six games, and Arkansas has seen the Under hit in just one of its five games in 2022.

Arkansas vs Mississippi State betting trend to know

The Over is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings between Arkansas and Mississippi State. Find more NCAA betting trends for Arkansas vs. Mississippi State.

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