The Southwest Classic on Saturday will be one of the highlight games of the weekend, as Jerry World plays host to Arkansas and Texas A&M in an SEC clash. The Razorbacks are enjoying an unbeaten start to their season and are looking to pick up a second conference win, while the Aggies are hoping the Arkansas secondary will be the elixir to their passing game woes.
Texas A&M is favored despite being the lower-ranked team in the polls, and it will be hoping to knock off a higher-ranked opponent for the second straight week. It’s going to be an exciting game in Arlington, and we’ve got your best plays for the game in our Arkansas vs. Texas A&M college football picks and predictions for Saturday, September 24.
Arkansas vs Texas A&M best odds
Arkansas vs Texas A&M picks and predictions
For all the talk about Texas A&M’s struggles in the passing game this season, its defense has not been of concern. The Aggies have allowed just 26 points this season, aided by an opening-week shutout win over Sam Houston. They’ve been stingy when teams have ventured into the red zone, allowing just one rushing touchdown and one passing touchdown in their opponents’ nine visits inside the 20.
All that said, they’ve been giving up a decent amount of yardage on the ground so far this season. The 154.3 yards per game they’ve allowed is ranked 83rd in the country, but they’re also allowing better than four yards per carry, which is in the bottom half of all teams. Last weekend, Miami was able to consistently ground out yardage against the Aggies, with Henry Parrish Jr and Jaylan Knighton combining for 162 yards on 30 carries.
For an Arkansas team that wants to limit the Aggies’ ability to punish its poor pass defense, this presents a clear path to victory for the Hogs. Arkansas ranks 10th in the nation with 243.7 yards per game on the ground, and it's picking up better than five yards per carry. Dual-threat quarterback KJ Jefferson is a key part of that attack, with his 46 rushing attempts the fourth-most of any player in the SEC.
Jefferson has thrown for 770 yards and six touchdowns to just one interception, meaning the Aggies will be taking a big risk to spy him for 60 minutes and take a player out of pass coverage. If they don’t, it will give him some opportunities to run. Jefferson’s 40 yards on the ground last week were his fewest of the season, but in games against Cincinnati and South Carolina to open the season, the Heisman odds dark horse rushed for an average of 64 yards, and he’s hit a double-digit run in all three games.
The Aggies have faced a true dual-threat quarterback already this season, and Jordan Yates led lowly Sam Houston with 60 yards on 14 carries. The rest of his team carried the ball just 13 times. While Jefferson isn’t likely to have that sort of share dominance with the likes of Raheim Sanders alongside him, it does show that the Aggies can be hurt by a quarterback who carries it enough times.
Most books have Jefferson’s rushing total closer to 50 yards for the game, but DraftKings has it nearly 10 less. I believe he will top 50 yards as well, but to get a line of 41.5 is a gift. Race to DraftKings and jump on a number that is a bit lower than it should be, as Jefferson will be asked to keep the Aggie defense honest and will likely get a few opportunities to scramble in this game.
(Also, check out how Jefferson factors into Week 4's College Football Upset Picks!)
My best bet: KJ Jefferson over 41.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
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Arkansas vs Texas A&M betting preview
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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Trend to know •Game info •Injuries •Weather
Spread analysis
This game is a tight contest, and the line movement has been interesting, to say the least. The Aggies opened at some books in the spring as nearly a touchdown favorite, but this week has seen the line fluctuate anywhere between the Aggies laying three and laying one. Currently sitting at -2, Texas A&M is a slight favorite after its big win against the Hurricanes.
A&M switched quarterbacks last week, but Max Johnson managed just 140 yards on the day. If he can’t get it going against the Hogs, it may never happen. Arkansas is allowing nearly 70 more yards passing per game than the next-worst Power Five team, and ranks dead last in passing yards allowed per game. It is important to note that cornerback Myles Slusher, who left with an injury in the season opener, is expected to return for this game.
It will be critical that the Hogs keep A&M’s defense on the field with a strong running game, so as to shorten this contest. If A&M is able to play stingy defense inside the redzone and get its offense going through the air, it could be a long day for the Hogs.
Over/Under analysis
To that end, the ability of Arkansas to control the clock and establish its run game will be key to how the total plays out. This line has also fluctuated a fair amount, quickly moving up from 46.5 at a few books to 50, before dropping slightly. The poor Arkansas pass defense has led to it getting into a few shootouts, with the lowest total so far being 51 points. However, the Aggies have been on the opposite spectrum, with none of their games going past 31 points.
Texas A&M doesn’t keep the ball much, averaging just 25 minutes of possession per contest. Its inability to push the ball downfield this season has been a key reason for its lower scores, but Arkansas will give it the opportunity to improve that situation. If Johnson can take advantage of that, it should lead to a decent total. Otherwise, this could be another low-scoring affair with Arkansas trying to find ways to get points inside the red zone and A&M simply trying to find points at all.
Arkansas vs Texas A&M betting trend to know
Arkansas has covered the spread in each of the last four games between these two teams. Find more NCAA betting trends for Arkansas vs. Texas A&M.
Arkansas vs Texas A&M game info
• Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
• Date: Saturday, September 24, 2022
• Kick-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Arkansas vs Texas A&M key injuries
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Arkansas vs Texas A&M weather
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