Saturday afternoon brings us an interesting encounter when the Army Black Knights travel to Baton Rouge as college football odds underdogs to battle the No. 19-ranked LSU Tigers.
Army is looking to end a three-game losing streak, while LSU hopes to extend a two-game winning streak with a victory as huge favorites.
Join me as I break down my best free college football picks and predictions for Army and LSU for Saturday, October 21.
Army vs LSU best odds
Army vs LSU picks and predictions
The Army's enlistment slogan is “Be all that you can be,” and these soldiers in training with a secondary role as football players face a daunting task on Saturday against the No. 19-ranked LSU Tigers.
Army has had real trouble scoring during its recent three-game losing streak. The Black Knights have scored 30 points over those three losses, and were shut out last week in Troy, but their mission on Saturday might be easier against a Tigers defense allowing 30.1 points per game.
LSU allows 157.3 rushing yards per game this season, and if the Black Knights have any hope of competing in this game, they’ll need to rush the football and be successful enough at it to grind the clock while putting numbers on the board.
Grinding the clock is something the Army does well. The Black Knights rank 12th nationally in time of possession and boast the 24th-best rushing offense among their FBS counterparts.
Army head coach Jeff Monken claims his offense needs to “find an identity,” and that identity should be rushing the football against a leaky Tigers rushing defense. The rushing yards have been there, but they’ve scored just 11 rushing TDs this season and face an LSU defense allowing 10 rushing TDs.
The Black Knights defense ranks 35th nationally in opponent scoring, but if Army is successful at rushing the football, they’ll keep the ball away from Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels and his high-flying LSU offense.
Daniels ranks third nationally in passing yards, but he’s also a capable runner with 515 rushing yards and four TDs. Daniels has a pair of wideouts combining for 1,470 receiving yards and 16 TDs with three additional Tigers with 100+ receiving yards. Army ranks 13th against the pass and should get some stops, but the less it sees of this offense, the better its chances are.
Even if Army successfully controls the clock and keeps the football out of Daniels's hands, it probably won’t win this game, but it might cover the +31 points. That isn’t the best bet for this one, though, as I believe what’s more likely to happen is for LSU to stymie a stagnant Black Knights offense and for this game to end Under the 58-point total.
My best bet: Under 58 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Army vs LSU same-game parlay
Under 58 (-110)
LSU -31 (-110)
Army QB Bryson Daily has had some success throwing the football this season, but he was injured in the Black Knights home loss to Troy, and his status for Saturday is unclear. Daily also leads the Army in rushing, and besides him, the Black Knights QB room has pedestrian stats, as does the RB and WR room. That’s why I believe LSU will cover the 31.
LSU covering correlates with the Under simply because I’m not sure the Army will score even one TD. As bad as LSU is at keeping opponents from scoring inside 20, the Black Knights rank 87th in red-zone scoring.
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Army vs LSU spread and Over/Under analysis
DraftKings lists LSU as -10,000 to win this game. That number is not worth the vig, as you would need to wager $10,000 to win $100. Conversely, a $100 wager on Army +3,000 would win $3000, but I wouldn’t make that wager either.
LSU opened as -28 (-110) favorites at DraftKings, but the public drove that number up a field goal to 31 points. That’s a big rise, probably because the betting public lacks confidence in the Black Knights, with or without Daily.
One market that I have some interest in and am leaning towards is the Army TT Under 12.5 (+100) at DraftKings.
The Army offense stalled big-time when Daily left its contest with Troy, and without him in the lineup, the Black Knights’ offense loses its offensive leader and most of its offensive production, and the Army will have a difficult time scoring the football. The LSU defense will bend but won’t break, and the Black Knights are horrendous in the red zone and will have a tough time scoring at Tiger Stadium on Saturday.
Army vs LSU betting trend to know
The Under is 3-2 over Army’s previous five contests. Find more college football betting trends for Army vs LSU.
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Army vs LSU game info
| Location: | Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA |
| Date: | Saturday, October 21, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SEC Network |
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