We’ve got another big SEC West showdown on tap this weekend, as Auburn heads to Death Valley to take on LSU in a primetime battle of the Tigers.
But the clashing Tigers come into this one with differing stripes. Auburn is coming off consecutive disappointing games while LSU has bounced back from a season-opening loss to UCLA by winning three in a row. That said, LSU is laying just a field goal at home for this one. So, where is the betting value?
Find out with our free college football betting picks and predictions for Auburn vs. LSU on Saturday, October 2.
Auburn vs LSU odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
LSU opened this matchup as 4-point home chalk, but it has been Auburn seeing the early money, moving the line down to LSU -3. Meanwhile, the total hit the board at 53, and bettors have hammered the Over with the number bumping up to 55.5 as of Friday afternoon. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Auburn vs LSU picks
Picks made on 10/1/2021 at 7:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Auburn vs LSU game info
• Location: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
• Date: Saturday, October 2, 2021
• Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Auburn vs LSU betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Auburn: Owen Pappoe LB (Questionable), Demetris Robertson WR (Probable).
LSU: Derek Stingley CB (Questionable), Austin Deculus OL (Questionable), Cameron Wire OL (Probable).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings between Auburn and LSU. Find more NCAA betting trends for Auburn vs. LSU.
Auburn vs LSU predictions
LSU -3 (-110)
Auburn enters this game with a lot of question marks.
Auburn followed up its loss to Penn State with a near-disastrous loss to Georgia State, in a game in which they were 27.5-point favorites. Bo Nix got benched in the game for backup and former LSU Tiger TJ Finley, who eventually led Auburn on a game-winning drive. And, let me tell you, this wasn’t a situation where the starter was happy for the backup.
But for now, it sounds like Nix will be back under center for this game, at least to start. So, that means we will once again have to mention Nix’s home-road splits. On the road, Nix's completion rate drops to 54.8 percent and has more interceptions (10) than touchdown passes (nine).
Auburn should have some success on the ground with the likes of Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter against a questionable-at-times LSU run defense. But overall, the Bayou Bengals are still allowing just 3.9 yards per carry.
LSU, on the other hand, needs to kick their run game into gear. But even if that can’t get going, they’ll turn to quarterback Max Johnson to hit Auburn over the top with big plays. Johnson has been solid this season completing 64.4 percent of his passes for 1,143 yards with 15 touchdowns to just three picks. His favorite target has been electric wideout Kayshon Boutte connecting for 24 catches, eight for touchdowns.
The Bayou Bengals should pull out the win and cover for a few reasons: They have more playmakers, the most efficient red zone offense in the country at the moment, they don’t turn over the ball, and they’re at home in a night game.
How ‘bout them Tigers! (The LSU ones).
Under 55.5 (-110)
The early money in this game has driven the total up to 55.5 but I think that number is now high enough to jump on the other side, and not just because the Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these SEC West rivals.
For starters, Auburn has struggled to score each of the past two weeks. Penn State did a great job of limiting Auburn through the air and LSU should be able to do the same with Derek Stingley Jr. anchoring the secondary. Then, Auburn managed 34 points against Georgia State, but 14 of those points came from a blocked punt return and a pick-six.
For LSU, they are scoring 34.5 points per game, but just 27.5 against Power 5 opponents. And Auburn's defense is no joke, ranking 19th in total defense and allowing just 15.5 points per game.
The high intensity of this rivalry game is just an added bonus as to why I am leaning towards the Under here.
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