Ball State vs Bowling Green Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Cards Fly Low Against Falcons

As the calendar flips to November, it marks the full return of midweek MACtion as we approach peak football season. 

Tonight sees the Ball State Cardinals — coming off a rare win — hit the road against the Bowling Green Falcons, who have won two straight. Looking at the latest college football odds, the Falcons are -5.5 at home while the total is set at 40. 

It’s expected to be a tight contest between two teams that want to keep the ball on the ground on offense, and I find that to be a good matchup for the side that is effective on both sides of the ball in that realm. 

Which side am I talking about? Check out my best bet section below to find out and stay tuned for my free college football picks for Ball State vs. Bowling Green on November 1. 

Ball State vs Bowling Green best odds

Ball State vs Bowling Green picks and predictions

It’s been a bit of a struggle offensively for Ball State — the Cardinals check into this matchup 100th in EPA per play, 91st in success rate, and 118th in explosiveness. They’re one of seven teams averaging fewer than 300 total yards per game (295) and are mustering just 4.7 yards per play.

They’ve played three different quarterbacks this year, with Kiael Kelly starting each of the last two games. He’s a dual threat who has rushed for 344 yards and two scores on a team-leading 5.2 yards per carry but has been ineffective as a passer, managing just 5.0 yards per attempt. 

The Cards have been one of the worst passing teams in the nation and have become entirely reliant on a ground game spear-headed by Kelly and Kent State transfer Marquez Cooper (584 rushing yards, two touchdowns).

This is an interesting matchup because Bowling Green has a big statistical advantage defensively (49th in EPA per play) but has shown vulnerabilities against the rush (101st in EPA per rush) which is what Ball State wants to do offensively. For all of their offensive woes, the Cardinals have a strong offensive line (19th in line yards, seventh in stuff rate) that has a big advantage on paper against a soft Bowling Green front (125th in stuff rate). 

One area where Bowling Green excels defensively is in forcing turnovers, which it has done an FBS-leading 20 times... but how effective can that be against a rush-heavy team with a forecasted advantage in the trenches?

The Falcons have had a rough go of things offensively themselves (114th in EPA per play, 110th in success rate) and have been reliant on hitting big plays. That’s interesting because those metrics look very similar to what the Cardinals have been doing defensively, where they are poor on a down-to-down basis (96th in EPA per play, 100th in success rate) but have been superb at limiting big gains. 

This forecasts as a low-scoring game as the total is hovering around 40 and has dipped past that number at some books. Both teams slow the game down to a halt — Ball State ranks 108th in plays per game while Bowling Green is 128th — which should limit possessions, and both teams look to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible. This game script has me looking at the underdog and I’ll take Ball State plus the points on Wednesday night. 

The Cardinals are -6 in turnover differential compared to +4 for the Falcons, but it’d be surprising to see many turnovers from Ball State in this spot considering it coughed the ball up just four times combined in its last four games and figures to keep the ball on the ground (16 pass attempts in each of its last two games).

The Falcons have had huge turnover issues offensively with 16 giveaways in eight games, so they’re in for trouble if they stop getting so many givebacks on the other side of the ball. Give me the road underdog here in what projects to be a close, low-scoring game where the clock is ticking.

My best bet: Ball State +5.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Ball State vs Bowling Green same-game parlay

Ball State +5.5

Under 39.5

+206 at FanDuel

I'll be adding Under at 39.5 to accompany my best bet. It’s a low number for a reason as both teams have rotated QBs, have middling offenses, and operate at a slow tempo. I like the correlation here as Ball State’s rush defense will need to be up to the task to slow down Terion Stewart and this dangerous ground game.

The Cardinals are 3-12 O/U across their last 15 games overall and are 1-9 O/U in their last 10 against MAC opponents. 

The Cards faced two SEC teams in the non-conference and held Kentucky to 113 rushing yards and notably limited Georgia to 99 rushing yards on 28 attempts (3.5 yards per carry), so they should be up to the task. If they are, Mike Neu’s team stands a good shot at pulling the outright upset on the road. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Ball State vs Bowling Green spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread opened as Ball State +6.5 but has since moved down to +5.5, and I’m in agreement with the line movement. The total popped at 40.5 but has since moved to 39.5 across the board. 

Ball State is 0-4 straight up on the road this season and has failed to cover the spread in all four games. Two of those games were against Kentucky and Georgia, so it’s hard to fault the Cardinals too much there, but losses to EMU and WMU by a combined score of 66 to 34 are a little bit more troubling. 

Ball State has played better in its last two games, losing to conference-leading Toledo by a single score and beating CMU while holding a substantial +1.6 yards per play differential. 

Is it a coincidence the Cardinals made the switch to Kelly at QB before that improvement? He only completed four of 16 passes against Toledo but did come a single yard shy of reaching 100 yards on the ground, and he then completed 13 of 16 attempts against CMU while totaling 165 total yards and two TDs. 

Ball State vs Bowling Green betting trend to know

Bowling Green is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 November games. Find more college football betting trends for Ball State vs Bowling Green.

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