MACtion opens the Week 13 schedule with a matchup between the Ball State Cardinals and Miami of Ohio Redhawks — both with 5-6 records.
This is an important game for both schools as the winner becomes bowl eligible. Ball State hopes to end a two-game losing streak while Miami defeated NIU 29-23 in Week 12.
Who will win this Tuesday night battle? Read our college football picks and predictions for Ball State vs. Miami (OH) below to find out.
Ball State vs Miami (OH) best odds
Ball State vs Miami (OH) picks and predictions
Miami has momentum on its side, and as such, I'm backing them to cover the slim 3-point spread as my best bet.
RedHawks starting QB Brett Gabbert missed last week and while his status for this contest is up in the air, Miami will be in good hands with freshman QB Aveon Smith under center. The frosh signal-caller scampered for two touchdowns and threw for another in last week's road win over Northern Illinois.
Seasonally, Smith has pitched it for 920 yards with eight TDs and four interceptions. He’s also sprinted for 419 yards with five trips to the end zone and didn’t have a turnover against NIU. He’s completed 52% of his passes this season, but Ball State is less efficient against the rush, and the frosh has all the tools he needs at his disposal.
Ball State allows 188 rushing yards per contest, and aside from Smith, the RedHawks have a solid RB in sophomore Keyon Mozee. The sophomore from Lees Summit has scampered for 455 yards with a pair of TDs on 102 attempts and rushed for 27 yards last week. He should find running the ball easier at home Tuesday night against the soft Cardinals' rushing defense.
The RedHawks' defense is its calling card. They allow the fewest points per conference game and have allowed 23 points or more twice over their past five. The defense has three players with 80 tackles or more, 26 sacks, and eight interceptions on the season.
The Cardinals' offense revolves around sophomore RB Carson Steele. The Ball State RB has rushed for 1,376 yards with a dozen TDs, as well as 131 receiving yards with a score. Steele blasted for 96 first-half yards and failed to return from an apparent head injury. The rushing game produced -4 second-half yards, the offense stalled, and Ball State lost a game they might have won to Ohio.
Cardinals QB John Paddock is fourth in the conference in passing yards, and if Steele can’t play, he’ll have to win this game with his arm. He threw for 273 yards and a pair of scoring strikes in Week 12 but threw his 12th interception. His favorite TD target is TE Tanner Koziel, and wideout Jayshon Jackson leads the team with 822 receiving yards.
Miami will cover whether Steele plays or not. The RedHawks' rushing defense is superb and Ball State will have trouble moving the ball. Smith has done a nice job taking care of the ball, and his multi-faceted game will prove too much for a soft Cardinals rushing defense to contain.
Paddock will be forced to throw the football against a MAC-average defense, and he’ll have some success, but the Miami ground game will use the clock to its advantage, keeping the Cardinals' offense off the field enough to cover the spread.
My best bet: Miami -3 (-110 at Caesars)
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Ball State vs Miami (OH) spread analysis
At -161, the RedHawks' moneyline has value and will likely be much longer when the Steele news comes out. Steele isn’t on the injury report but didn’t play the second half of last week's loss. I'd be surprised if he suits up Tuesday.
The RedHawks' defense has been stout, allowing the 41st-fewest points in the nation. They benefit from an offense averaging 30+ minutes of possession per game, which keeps the Miami defense fresh, making it even tougher to score against it.
Ball State has lost three of its last four away games facing a Miami side with a 2-3 record this season at Yager Stadium.
Miami senior wideout Mac Hippenhammer is playing the final home game of his career. He’s caught 46 passes for 656 yards with eight TD receptions this season, with 1,637 career receiving yards and 14 TDs. He’s had consecutive 100+ receiving games with four TDs, and I expect him to have a strong finish to his collegiate career.
Ball State vs Miami (OH) Over/Under analysis
The total is set at 44.5 points and I’m leaning toward the Over in this contest.
This could end up being a wild and woolly game. The Cardinals' defense is leaky but so is the Miami passing defense and I expect both sides to put points on the board.
Paddock can sling it, especially in a favorable matchup with solid receivers. If the offensive line can keep his jersey clean, we can expect Ball State to score the football against a league-average Miami passing defense.
Ball State can’t stop the run, and Smith will have fun Tuesday night. He’s also a competent passer with dual-threat abilities, and has a big-play receiver like Hippenhammer who can help light up the scoreboard.
Turnovers could play a huge role in this matchup, with Miami ranking inside the Top 10 turnover margin (+0.8 per game) and Ball State among the worst (-0.7)
The Over is 3-8 over the 11 Ball State games and 1-4 as the away team. Through 11 Miami contests, the Over is 3-8 and 1-3 at Yager Stadium.
Ball State vs Miami (OH) betting trend to know
The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five road meetings with Miami (OH). Find more NCAA betting trends for Ball State vs. Miami (OH).
Ball State vs Miami (OH) game info
| Location: | Yager Stadium, Oxford, OH |
| Date: | Tuesday, November 22, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
Ball State vs Miami (OH) latest injuries
Ball State vs Miami (OH) weather
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