The MAC West race gains some clarity Wednesday night as the Ball State Cardinals take on the Northern Illinois Huskies in a game of crucial importance to the conference standings.
A win for Ball State, who are slight college football betting road favorites, would catapult the Cardinals into full control of the division, while a Northern Illinois win puts the Huskies at least 1.5 games ahead of the nearest team.
It’s the battle for the Bronze Stalk Trophy, which the Cardinals have controlled each of the last two meetings. Will the Huskies be able to win the trophy back and take command of the MAC West — or will they falter as the frontrunner?
Check out our picks and predictions for Ball State vs. Northern Illinois on Wednesday, November 10 to find out.
Ball State vs Northern Illinois odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
This line has steadily remained at Ball State -2.5, while the total has dropped a point from 62.5 to 61.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Ball State vs Northern Illinois picks
Picks made on 11/09/2021 at 11:37 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Ball State vs Northern Illinois game info
• Location: Huskie Stadium, DeKalb, IL
• Date: Wednesday, November 10, 2021
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2, TSN3
Ball State vs Northern Illinois betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Ball State: Dylan Koch TE (Questionable), Kaleb Slaven OL (Questionable), Tye Evans RB (Out).
Northern Illinois: Rocky Lombardi QB (Questionable), Harrison Waylee RB (Questionable), Tyrice Richie WR (Questionable), Devin Lafayette S (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Cardinals are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 against teams with a winning record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Ball State vs. Northern Illinois.
Ball State vs Northern Illinois predictions
Ball State -2.5 (-110)
It hasn’t exactly been pretty for Ball State, but the Cardinals find themselves with a direct shot at taking control of the MAC West standings with a win on Wednesday night. An offense that averaged 34.2 points per game last year has slipped to 25.2 in 2021 despite returning a wealth of production. That being said, this is a veteran team that won’t be fazed by the importance of this game — the Cardinals won the 2020 MAC Championship.
Northern Illinois may have a 6-3 record but have been a mediocre-at-best squad from a statistical standpoint. The offense is averaging 5.9 yards per play while the defense is surrendering 6.8 — nearly a full yardage of difference on a per-play basis. This is a team that looks to keep the ball on the ground and dominate time of possession, which leads to a lot of close games: Every single game they’ve played against Group of Five opposition has been decided by only one score.
Ball State’s strength defensively is in stopping the run, where it's allowing only 3.9 yards per carry, and has held each of its last four opponents to 130 rushing yards or less. This may allow the Cardinals to keep the Huskies (who average 46 rushing attempts per game) from dominating the game script.
Ball State’s strength offensively is in a veteran passing game led by quarterback Drew Plitt and receivers Justin Hall, Yo’Heinz Tyler, and Jayson Jackson. It should be able to find success against a poor Huskies defense that allowed 39 points to Central Michigan and 52 points to Kent State in its two most recent outings.
Northern Illinois has vastly overplayed its statistical profile thus far this year. We’re betting on regression at the tail end of the season.
Over 61.5 (-110)
It’s becoming difficult to take the Under in some of these midweek MACtion games. The conference as a whole struggled defensively, and the offensive numbers were artificially depressed over the tougher non-conference portion of the schedule.
Those numbers have since ballooned.
Just consider the fact that Northern Illinois’s last two games have combined for 99 and 77 points, respectively, and you have an idea of how their games tend to go. The team ranks 115th in the country defensively, allowing 449.3 yards per game. Expect Plitt and this Cardinals offense to move the ball efficiently and even find some rushing success against this 117th-ranked rushing defense.
Ball State hasn’t been anything close to elite defensively this season either, ranking 83rd nationally with 401.6 ypg surrendered. The effective rushing defense should limit Northern Illinois from running wild, but this Huskies team is averaging 31.7 ppg and will find the endzone regardless.
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