A favorite has finally emerged after an entire season without a clear dominant team and a year of Oregon and Ohio State trading the top spot in the College Football National Championship odds.
The Buckeyes’ back-to-back thrashings of Tennessee and Oregon have elevated them to +110 favorites entering the College Football Playoff semifinals.
But look beyond Ohio State and recognize how wide open this year remains.
The conversation this week may be about the conference champions all losing in the Playoff, about teams with byes going 0-4 in the quarterfinals, and about the supposedly dire need to reseed the bracket.
However, it should be about three outstanding defenses that make this title picture and our college football picks a cloudy one.
CFP Quarterfinals things you should not overreact to
Do not overreact to how good Ohio State has looked. Not to diminish the Buckeyes’ domination of Oregon, but be wary of some recency bias.
What Ohio State did to Oregon should be praised. The Ducks finished with -23 rushing yards thanks to eight sacks on Dillon Gabriel.
They had no recourse. The Buckeyes simply physically obliterated them.
Freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith’s stats are only limited by how close the end zone is. Seven catches on 10 targets for 187 yards and two scores do not explain how comical it is watching college secondaries try to contain him.
Look at how open he is on this second touchdown on New Year’s Day. (And think back to the two or three blown coverages Notre Dame suffered against Georgia as a potential championship game precursor.)
Obviously, he's a physical freak. But the subtle body lean and head bob to manipulate the DB on this route is so, so good, esp for a freshman.
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) January 2, 2025
It's more than just size/speed w/ Jeremiah Smith. pic.twitter.com/OgTqA8JdSe
All that said, realize the buy-in on Ohio State may be getting out over its skis.
If this Cotton Bowl matchup had occurred in the first round of the Playoff, the Buckeyes would have been no more than field-goal favorites against Texas. The Longhorns defense has about as good a chance of slowing this passing attack as anyone in the country does, No. 2 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback against in the regular season, according to cfb-graphs.
Only Notre Dame’s pass defense is more stout.
Douglas' advice: Let’s put it this way, I need to drive to Mobile, Ala., today from New Orleans to catch my flight home. Before I leave the state of Louisiana, I will snag a +6.5 ticket on Texas, firmly believing recency bias has inflated the number. Ohio State’s impressive wins should grow this spread to some extent, but -4.5 would have been more appropriate than a pile of -6 on the odds board with BetMGM at -6.5.
Do not overreact to how bad the Longhorns looked in their Peach Bowl double-overtime win against Arizona State, though the only way to describe that box score is to say Texas looked outright bad.
Box scores and stats can be misleading. For example, Georgia outgained Notre Dame by 52 yards, but no one who watched the Sugar Bowl will argue anything other than the Irish dominated the Bulldogs.
No such compliment can be given to Texas. A punt return touchdown mitigated some of the Longhorns’ yardage totals, part of how they were outgained 510 yards to 375. But there is no justification for going 5-of-13 on third downs, for rushing for only 68 yards on 27 carries (sacks adjusted), and for allowing six Arizona State drives into the red zone.
Texas played terribly on New Year’s Day.
And won.
It is hard to fathom the Longhorns playing worse. Similarly, it is hard to fathom the Buckeyes continuing to play this well.
Furthermore, there was some good news in that Texas performance. On 10 Arizona State scoring opportunities, the Sun Devils managed just 31 points. Entering the game, they had averaged 4.09 points per scoring opportunity, No. 31 in the country.
The Longhorns’ defense is underappreciated, and it is at its best where it matters most.
Also, Quinn Ewers looks healthy and effective, going 20-of-30 for 322 yards and three touchdowns. While Ohio State will make his life far more miserable, Ewers’ return to early-season form will keep Texas’s title hopes alive.
Meanwhile, the Cotton Bowl could be more interesting than we realize.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) January 3, 2025
These numbers all exclude the Playoff. Just through conference championship weekend.
But there is some merit to wondering if Ohio State can stay at THIS level. Regression would suggest a tiiiiiiight game. pic.twitter.com/d0DKMMFyz0
Douglas' advice: Focus on these two defenses, not Ohio State scoring 40+ in back-to-back Playoff games. The Longhorns’ ability to shut down promising drives can keep any game close, and if that shows up just two or three times against the Buckeyes, it should doom the Cotton Bowl to an Under.
The market is sitting at 53.5. Finding an Under 54 would be a delight, but do not anticipate it. If expecting Ohio State to regress toward the mean (bad news) as well as Texas doing so (good news), then this Under should be snagged sooner rather than later.
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CFP Quarterfinals things you definitely should react to
Do overreact to Notre Dame wiping the floor with Georgia, a shocking thought we have seen for exactly one-half from Alabama in the last four years. In fact, the Irish join Mississippi as the only team besides Alabama to beat Georgia in the last four years, the Bulldogs going 52-5 since the start of the 2021 season. But do not overreact to Notre Dame’s seeming offensive troubles.
When the Rebels upset Georgia in early November, they kicked five field goals to crawl their way to 28 points. Notre Dame kicked three on Thursday to help get to 23 points.
The Irish were quite content with that. They hardly considered those drives anything but successes. A 12-play, 41-yard drive ending in a punt may have been the defining series of Marcus Freeman’s tenure.
Notre Dame knew the Bulldogs could not move the ball. Hence the “wiping the floor” description above.
“No. 1 was to stop the run,” Freeman said afterward. “We didn’t believe that we could lose this game by passing yards.”
No one has thrown on Notre Dame all season. No one.
No. 1 pass defense vs No. 2 pass offense.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) January 3, 2025
A defense so good against the pass that opponents avoid the pass, forcing runs at the third-highest rate in the country.
vs. an offense that does not emphasize the run at all, 35th highest pass rate in the country
(numbers via @statsowar) pic.twitter.com/2F69QLxCU2
Louisville averaged three yards fewer per attempt than it did the rest of the season. USC threw two pick-sixes against the Irish.
Meanwhile, Gunner Stockton’s 234 yards on 20-of-32 passing were boosted by a 67-yard completion in the first half that yielded only a field goal. Aside from that, he averaged 5.39 yards per pass attempt.
As long as the Irish knew the Bulldogs could not sustain offensive drives, their primary charge became not to make any mistakes. Notre Dame’s putrid offensive output was by design. As soon as the Irish had a two-score lead — and then, without another offensive snap, a three-score lead, they had no need to be aggressive in any regard.
Let Georgia go nowhere.
Douglas' advice: Notre Dame’s offense will be doubted for the next week. That is fair, but it should not be because of the Sugar Bowl. The Irish did exactly what they wanted to there. Penn State quarterback Drew Allar is by far the best quarterback that Notre Dame has seen this season. The Nittany Lions should find some success on offense, certainly more than Georgia did. This total has already fallen more than a field goal, and that is a result of too much criticism of the Irish offense and not enough criticism of Georgia’s. Take the Over 46.5 in the Orange Bowl and trust Notre Dame to show more aggressiveness on offense when facing that exact thing on the other side of the ball.
Do overreact to how competitive this Playoff is. We have not seen something like this in years.
As of Friday morning, Penn State's odds of winning the national championship at a widely available sportsbook were +500 at Caesars.
In each of the last three years, the highest odds entering the four-team Playoff were significantly higher than that: Washington at +750 in 2023; TCU at +1,600 in 2022; Cincinnati at +1,400 in 2021.
Even with Ohio State emerging as the clear favorite, this is so much more condensed than recent years. First and fourth odds entering the semifinals of the last three years:
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) January 3, 2025
2023: Michigan +185, Washington +750
2022: Georgia -145, TCU +1,600
2021: Alabama +115, Cincinnati +1,400 https://t.co/mazkwOfRx1
We can genuinely believe any one of the remaining four teams could win the national championship. That has not been true in a long while.
The odds have plummeted on Ohio State, down to +110, but do not anoint the Buckeyes just yet.
Douglas' advice: Quit complaining about the Playoff, about byes, about seeding. So the four teams with byes lost. Do not chalk that up to rust. Their layoffs between games were four or five days longer than Notre Dame’s and Ohio State’s were going into the first round. The Irish and the Buckeyes had no trouble.
Quit arguing conference champions should not get a bye. Winning your conference should matter. Otherwise, this postseason will simply overshadow another aspect of college football. There is no need for that.
Instead, embrace how fortunate we are to have four quality teams remaining, each with a genuine chance at winning the national championship.
Not intended for use in MA.
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