One of the final bowl games of the 2024 college football season will see someone doused in mayonnaise, and our Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech predictions expect the Virginia Tech Hokies to win and cover at the Duke's Mayo Bowl tonight.
The Minnesota Golden Gophers lost five games this season, with tough losses to Michigan and Penn State by a combined five points. They’ll look to cap the season with a win against a Hokie team that has seen their roster gutted and will have a lot of young players getting major minutes.
Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, with the game airing on ESPN.
Minnesota vs Virginia Tech prediction and best bet
Who will win Minnesota vs Virginia Tech?
As we will discuss in a moment, I’m backing the Gophers to not only win but to do so by double-digits.
Virginia Tech comes into this bowl game a shell of itself, with numerous players either opting out or departing via the transfer portal. The Hokies weren’t great offensively, to begin with, and now they must figure out how to move the ball without the bulk of their weapons.
PJ Fleck has won all five of his bowl games as Minnesota’s head coach and has covered in four of them. His defense forces turnovers while his offense takes care of the ball, and the bulk of his starters will take the field. Consistency and familiarity will be key to Minnesota taking the victory.
My best bet
Minnesota -9 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Were the Virginia Tech Hokies coming into this game with a full squad of players, I’d be very intrigued by this matchup. Unfortunately, that’s just not the case, as Virginia Tech has seen 21 players hit the transfer portal, in addition to another five seniors who have opted out.
Not only are the Hokies missing multiple starters on both sides of the ball, but they are likely to have only eight in total heading into this game. Starting quarterback Kyron Drones, who missed the final few games of the season with multiple injuries, doesn’t appear to be available. Backup quarterback Pop Watson III is likely to get the start again as he did in the season-ending win over Virginia.
Whoever takes snaps for the Hokies will face the Minnesota Golden Gophers without top rusher Bhayshul Tuten and likely without backup running back Malachi Thomas. He’ll also be taking snaps behind an offensive line that is without starting center Braelin Moore and left tackle Xavier Chaplin.
The defense isn’t going to look very familiar, either. In addition to the departure of defensive coordinator Chris Marve, the Hokies have seen their secondary gutted. They’ll be without arguably their best three starters on that side of the ball, a brutal blow for a defense that ranked 39th in success rate and 28th in net EPA/drive.
It’s why Minnesota has seen the line continuing to creep in their favor all week, and I’m not sure it’s moved enough just yet. Even when everyone was available, this was a Virginia Tech offense that struggled at times, especially when they were forced to take to the air. That is likely to be the case on Friday against a Minnesota defense with a terrific front four.
Overall, the Gophers defense is very good, ranking Top 10 in passing yards allowed per game and 22nd in net EPA/play. Getting off the field on third down was their only major weakness. But with most of the offensive line being unfamiliar with one another and a young quarterback down to his third-best running back, the Hokies aren’t set up to take advantage of that.
On the flip side, Minnesota will have starting quarterback Max Brosmer available. He had a solid season, completing at least 60% of his throws in all but two starts and throwing just one interception in his last seven games. And while he won’t have leading receiver Daniel Jackson to throw to, he will have Darius Taylor to rely on in the run game.
Minnesota will simply have too much on both sides of the ball for a Hokie team that will suffer from inexperience and a lack of reps together. Brosmer will throw the ball around plenty and take advantage of the young Virginia Tech secondary, and PJ Fleck will cover the spread in a bowl game for the fifth time in six tries as Minnesota’s head coach.
Minnesota vs Virginia Tech same-game parlay (SGP)
Minnesota -8.5
Virginia Tech 1st half team total Under 10.5
Jameson Geers Over 19.5 receiving yards
Minnesota likes to make teams grind out drives in the opening half, as only two of its last seven opponents surpassed the 10-point mark prior to halftime. USC, UCLA, Illinois, and Maryland each scored exactly 10 first-half points, while Wisconsin was held scoreless.
Given the issues at the offensive line and the inexperience at quarterback, I like the Gopher defense to hold yet another opponent below that line heading into the break.
Jameson Geers had only 25 catches on the season, with eight of those coming in one game against Rutgers. Even so, he gained at least 20 receiving yards in six of his 12 outings. That includes three games where he made just one catch that went for 20+ yards.
Jackson accounted for nearly 33% of Minnesota’s receiving yardage and almost 30% of the team’s receptions on the year. Geers finished fourth in catches and yards but was tied for the lead in touchdowns, and I expect Brosmer to lean on him more here. That should mean easily clearing that 20-yard plateau again.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Minnesota vs Virginia Tech odds
Minnesota vs Virginia Tech live odds
Minnesota vs Virginia Tech opening odds
- Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech spread: Virginia Tech +4.5 (-110)
- Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech moneyline: Minnesota (-175), Virginia Tech (+145)
- Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech Over/Under: 42.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Minnesota vs Virginia Tech spread and Over/Under analysis
- With the opt-outs for Virginia Tech, the spread has doubled since opening, with Minnesota favored by 4.5 points.
- The Gophers were 7-1 ATS in their last eight games, while the Hokies covered just once in their last four.
- The total has stayed level at 42.5 points since opening. That number is close to what Minnesota saw in its final three games but is the lowest number Virginia Tech has seen all season.
- The Hokies saw three of their last four games go Over, as well as seven of their last 10. The Over was 3-2 in the last five for the Gophers.
- According to Covers Consensus, 51% of spread picks are laying the points with Virginia Tech, while 55% of total picks are siding with the Over.
Minnesota vs Virginia Tech betting trend to know
Minnesota has covered the Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 55% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Minnesota vs Virginia Tech.
Minnesota vs Virginia Tech game info
| Location: | Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC |
| Date: | Friday, 1-3-2025 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Minnesota vs Virginia Tech latest injuries
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Minnesota vs Virginia Tech weather
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