Coach Prime and the Colorado Buffaloes return home to Folsom Field after grabbing a comfortable 28-9 victory over Colorado State in Week 3.
Next up is Dave Aranda and the Baylor Bears, who can match last season’s win total with a win in Week 4.
However, my early Baylor vs. Colorado predictions believe the Bears will have to wait another week to secure that win. Find out why in my college football picks below.
Baylor vs Colorado predictions
Early spread lean
Colorado -1 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
I was surprised the Colorado Buffaloes were such a short favorite at home against a Baylor Bears program that finished 3-9 a year ago and has been trending in a severely negative direction under Dave Aranda.
A closer look at Baylor’s advanced metrics through three games quickly made it apparent why this team is being held in higher regard — the Bears have been nasty on the defensive side, ranking 19th in EPA per play and second in success rate while allowing just 9.7 points per game.
The next step as a handicapper is to evaluate the strength of competition those numbers were accumulated against. It’s not pretty, as two of those teams (Tarleton State and Air Force) are incapable of completing a forward pass, while the other (Utah) had a true freshman backup quarterback thrust into action for half of the game.
The main question when evaluating Colorado opponents is whether or not they’ll be able to create pressure up front, especially while rushing four.
Shedeur Sanders is an elite QB, but the offensive line in front of him is highly questionable, and we’ve seen this offense get shut down one too many times when he’s running around for his life due to constant pressure. Allow him time in the pocket, however, and he'll pick you apart with shots to Travis Hunter and the rest of his star-studded receiving corp.
The Bears have recorded just four sacks (1.33 per game, 95th nationally) and 11 TFLs (3.7 per game, 116th nationally), so I’m not sure they’re well-positioned to exploit this weakness.
We haven’t seen Baylor face a competent field general other than when Cameron Rising led Utah to a 23-0 lead in the first half before leaving injured. Therefore, we don’t know how the newly-improved defense will look this Saturday against Shedeur and company. I’m betting it’s not ready for the challenge after ranking 130th in EPA per play on D a year ago.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 54 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
With both teams liking to play with tempo we could see a fair amount of possessions in this contest, and that has me leaning toward the Over.
Baylor’s first-year offensive coordinator, Jake Spavital, has this offense on the move, ranking 26th in plays per minute (2.37). Colorado isn’t far behind, ranking 29th with 2.35 plays per minute.
The Bears made the switch to Sawyer Robertson at quarterback for Week 3 and the former Mississippi State transfer looked good, completing 18 of his 24 attempts for 248 yards (10.3 yards per attempt).
He’s a better fit for this Air Raid system than Toledo transfer DeQuan Finn, who had completed just 53.5% of his passes with nearly as many interceptions (two) as touchdowns (three) while starting Weeks 1 and 2.
Colorado’s defense has been much improved this season, but can you trust it? This is still a very thin group in terms of depth, and with the game expected to be played at a quick tempo, it’s very realistic to expect signs of wear in the second half.
The Buffs showed out last week by holding Colorado State to nine points and 4.9 yards per play. If you look at their other games, however, they allowed North Dakota State to rack up 449 total yards on 6.5 yards per play, and Nebraska easily marched out to a 28-0 halftime lead before putting the brakes on the offense.
My early lean is toward the Over.
Baylor vs Colorado live odds
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