It’s Rivalry Week in college football. That also means it’s the final week of the regular season. This is a bummer not only because we have fewer games, but because my Triple Option is on fire.
After another 3-0 performance we are sitting at 18-9 over the last nine weeks. So, let’s close the season on a high with another SEC Under, the Gators making their mark in the state of Florida, and another scare for Miami.
Here are my college football best bets for Week 14.
College football best bets Week 14
Under 50 (-110)Picks made on 11-29. Click each pick to read full analysis.
College football Week 14 best bets
Best bet #1: Syracuse +11
Best odds: -110 at bet365
I love Cam Ward. I think he deserves to win the Heisman Trophy. Not only for the ridiculous numbers he’s put up, but because he is putting up those ridiculous numbers despite the fact he has to deal with one of the worst in-game coaches in college football in Mario Cristobal.
Even though Ward has thrown for 3,774 yards while leading the nation with 34 touchdown passes and only seven interceptions, it feels like the Miami Hurricanes have needed to pull off miraculous escapes far more often than necessary this season.
The final play against Virginia Tech. The comeback vs. Cal. Surviving the shootout with Louisville. And it finally came to a head in the loss to Georgia Tech before the Canes bounced back in their game against Wake Forest.
But now oddsmakers are setting them as 11-point road favorites at the site formerly known as the Carrier Dome for Saturday’s matchup against the Syracuse Orange, and if there’s an ACC team that can sling it with Ward and The U, it’s Kyle McCord and Cuse.
McCord leads the nation in completions, attempts, and yards with 3,946. He’s also thrown 26 touchdowns and compared to 12 interceptions. Take away his meltdown vs. Pitt and he’s only thrown one pick over his last five games. Overall, Syracuse ranks eighth in success rate on dropbacks.
And while the numbers say this is a good Miami defense, they just don’t seem to show up at times. The Hurricanes allowed Cal’s Fernando Mendoza to throw for 285 yards on just 11 completions. Louisville’s Tyler Shough aired it out for 342 yards and four scores. Hell, even Duke QB Malik Murphy put 325 yards on them. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech ran all over the Canes.
All that to say, if McCord can limit the turnovers, there is no doubt Syracuse can keep this one close, especially in front of what should be a rowdy home crowd. The question is can the Orange upset the apple cart in the ACC? Either way, give me the points with the home dog here.
Best bet #2: Florida team total Over 31.5
Best odds: +102 at FanDuel
The clock was ticking on Billy Napier the second the final whistle blew on the Florida Gators’ crushing 41-17 season-opening loss to the Miami Hurricanes.
That loss was compounded by getting beat down by Texas A&M 33-20 in their SEC opener, and the rumors were flying about who would be the next head coach at Florida. But a funny thing happened. The Gators started playing better.
They took Tennessee to overtime. They were tied with Georgia late in the fourth quarter. And it looks like they have something in quarterback DJ Lagway.
Then Florida’s athletic director shocked everyone by announcing Napier would be the head football coach for at least the next season. And his team responded in the best way possible, upsetting LSU and Mississippi in back-to-back games.
The Gators are now bowl-eligible, have covered seven of their last eight games, and can improve on that standing by beating down their in-state rivals — the Florida State Seminoles.
Florida State is down bad. This was supposed to be a big season for the Seminoles but it became quickly apparent that they would not live up to expectations. They enter this game with a stunningly bad 2-9 record with the lone FBS win coming against Cal all the way back on September 21.
The offense is a disaster but the defense is starting to catch up. Florida State has surrendered 35 points or more in four of their last six games against FBS opponents and Seminoles rank 116th in opponent yards per play over their last three games.
They have also been killed by explosive plays and enter this game ranked 87th in EPA per rush and 107th in EPA per dropback. The Gators running back by committee ranks 24th in EPA per rush and DJ Lagway is averaging 11.3 yards per attempt. So, yeah, they can take advantage of that.
But most importantly, there will be a lot of recruits at this game. Don’t be shocked if Napier tries to run up the score in an attempt to say, “Hey look, we are the Florida team on the rise.”
With that in mind, give me the Gators to go Over their team total. The plus money is a bonus.
Best bet #3: Texas-Texas A&M Under 50
Best odds: -110 at DraftKings
The Texas A&M Aggies were always the little brother in their rivalry against the Texas Longhorns. But many around the Aggies program felt they surpassed big bro when they moved to the SEC while the Longhorns toiled in mediocrity for years in the Big 12.
Well, Texas also moved to the SEC this season, and big bro isn’t just back — he’s kicked down the door. Now these rivals renew their rivalry in the biggest way possible. The winner will walk off Kyle Field with a trip to Atlanta for the SEC Championship game.
Texas enters this game looking like one of the best teams in the country with a 10-1 record and the lone loss coming in a hard-fought game against Georgia. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is 8-3 with two of those losses coming in the last three games. But with only two of the losses coming in the conference, a win at home on Saturday can still propel the Aggies to Atlanta.
While Kyle Field is one of the toughest venues in college football, if there is a team that is up to the task, it’s Texas.
Steve Sarkisian’s squad is deep and talented. Quinn Ewers and the offense get most of the headlines, but the Longhorns defense is really good and probably a little overlooked. Texas enters this massive matchup ranked second in opponent EPA per play and 28th in defensive success rate.
They’ll face off against an Aggies offense that is still trying to find its identity. Marcel Reed has been the starting quarterback for the last three games and while he’s a dynamic athlete, he’s still developing as a passer. Luckily, the best way to attack this Longhorns defense is on the ground, where they rank 72nd in success rate vs. the rush.
Meanwhile, containing the Texas offense isn’t easy but the Aggies are no joke on defense, ranking 24th in opponent EPA per play and 15th in defensive success rate. They should also get a boost from "The 12th Man" in this massive matchup.
That said, one way to suck the air out of a raucous crowd is with long, sustained drives, which includes running the football.
So, a super intense atmosphere with a ton on the line. Two great defensive teams. And the potential for lots of running the football. That sounds like an Under to me.
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College football odds for Week 14
Here are the full college football odds for this week.
