Betting college football is not for the weary. Wagering on kids to do what you expect can definitely go sideways at times.
But a good process will eventually lead to good results, and that’s what we got last week as my Triple Option column turned a profit. So, let’s stick to that process to find some more winners in Week 4.
The process has led me to one of my ride-or-dies this season, the Northern Illinois Huskies, who will try to avoid a letdown following their massive win vs. Notre Dame.
That and more college football picks for Week 4 below.
College football Week 4 predictions and best bets
Picks made on 9-20. Read full analysis of each pick.
College football Week 4 picks
Northern Illinois -13.5
Best odds: -115 at BetMGM
Not only did I pick the Northern Illinois Huskies to win the MAC in my preseason conference preview, but I am now the proud owner of an NIU to make the playoff ticket at +8,000.
I’m also picking the Huskies to cover two touchdowns in some crazy Saturday MAC-tion — crazy because the MAC is known for unexpected results, but I’m betting we’re safe in this matchup where Northern Illinois will play host to the Buffalo Bulls.
NIU hasn’t played since its massive 16-14 outright win as 28-point road dogs against Notre Dame, and while some may point at this game as a typical letdown spot for the Huskies, I’m not so sure.
For starters, the Huskies got a bye after their big win. So, while they may have enjoyed the moment for a few days, they had plenty of time to refocus and set their sights on this matchup with Buffalo. And did you see head coach Thomas Hammock’s speech after the game? The Huskies are going to be ready.
Oh, and then there’s the matchup with Buffalo. The Bulls are going through some big changes this season. They have a first-year head coach in Pete Lembo and return only three starters on offense.
You could see the struggles in the Bulls’ 38-0 season-opening loss to Missouri. Buffalo quarterback CJ Ogbonna went just 6-for-20 for 55 yards and ran the ball for 3.6 yards per carry in that game.
The Bulls enter this game ranked 126th in offensive success rate, and while Northern Illinois may not be on quite the same level as Mizzou’s defense, this is one of the best units in the MAC. And we just saw them shut down a much superior Irish offense, holding them to 4.7 yards per play and limiting Irish QB Riley Leonard to 163 yards, picking him off twice.
Northern Illinois will wear down Buffalo throughout the game with its stout defense and strong running game. I think they win this one by three scores.
Georgia Tech +10.5
Best odds: -110 at BetMGM
I’m not sure I get all the Louisville Cardinals love heading into this season. Sure, the Cardinals fell ass-backward into the ACC Championship last season and return a lot of starters in 2024. You can also make the case that they got an upgrade at quarterback going from Jack Plummer to Tyler Shough.
To top it all off, Louisville has opened 2024 with a pair of blowout wins.
But they also lost that ACC title tilt to a Florida State team without a quarterback. Shough can be effective if he is healthy, but that’s a big if. And those wins came against Austin Peay and Jacksonville State. So, I’m not sure what you can take away from all that.
And while Louisville returns a lot of production, they are missing some key pieces from last season, starting with their top two running backs Jahwar Jordan and Isaac Guerendo. On defense, head coach Jeff Brohm had to hit up the transfer portal to shore up his interior defensive line.
So, there might be more unknowns about this Louisville team than it appears on the surface. That’s why I like backing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets getting 10.5 points in this spot. We know what we are getting with them at this point.
Georgia Tech started the season with a big upset win over Florida State over in Dublin. While that win has lost some of its luster thanks to the Seminoles' disastrous start to the season, the Yellow Jackets have continued to be a fun, competitive team.
Georgia Tech is led by quarterback Haynes King. The former Texas A&M signal-caller has thrown for 962 yards while completing 76.4% of his passes with six touchdowns compared to one interception. He’s also added another 158 yards and three scores on the ground.
Thanks to King, the Yellow Jackets enter this matchup ranked 17th in offensive success rate. Yes, the defense was an issue in the 31-28 loss to Syracuse, but I think this Georgia Tech offense is good enough to keep this game interesting.
Anthony Hankerson Over 74.5 rushing yards
Best odds: -115 at bet365
It’s been a tough start to 2024 for the Oregon State Beavers. No one wanted the Beavers as one of the lone holdouts in the Pac-12 (along with Washington State), their new spread offense has struggled through three games, and they were just beaten handily at home by rival Oregon.
But while things for Oregon State aren’t great heading into this week’s game against the Purdue Boilermakers, things are much, much worse in West Lafayette.
The Boilermakers entered this season looking like one of the worst Power Four teams in the country, and Notre Dame took out their frustrations from that loss to NIU on Purdue by winning via a mercy-rule score of 66-7.
Notre Dame suffocated the Boilermakers pass game with pressure, forcing them to turn to the run, which was consistently stuffed. Then the Irish ran all over the Boilermakers, rumbling for 362 yards at a ridiculous clip of 8.2 yards per carry. While the Beavers may not have this same level of success, I still think they can be productive on the ground in this game.
While the transition to the spread offense hasn’t been the smoothest, let’s give Oregon State some credit. The Beavs were able to hang tough with Oregon for the first half before the talent discrepancy showed up in the second half. And despite the switch in offensive styles, Oregon State has still been committed to the run with backs Anthony Hankerson and Jam Griffin.
The Beavers ran the ball 58 times for 362 yards in their opener against FCS Idaho State, then 51 times for 237 yards vs San Diego State. And they even handed it off 32 times for 131 in the blowout loss to Oregon, getting a respectable 4.0 yards per carry.
I’m expecting a heavy dose of both backs here but I really like Hankerson to go Over his rushing prop of 74.5. He’s already run for 283 yards this season, going for 5.1 yards per carry. He is averaging 18.3 carries per game and faces a Purdue defense that ranks 127th in EPA per opponent rush.
Give me Hank to have another great night on the ground.
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More NCAAF Week 4 predictions
- Illinois vs. Nebraska: Nebraska moneyline
- NC State vs. Clemson: Clemson first half -11.5
- Miami (OH) vs. Notre Dame: Miami (OH) +28
- Stanford vs. Syracuse: Over 56.5
- Utah vs. Oklahoma State: Utah +2.5
- USC vs. Michigan: USC -6
- UCLA vs LSU: LSU first half -14
- TCU vs SMU: TCU -3
- Marshall vs. Ohio State: Ohio State -40
