College Football Best Bets Week 10: Value Lies With Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt +7.5

Best odds: -108 at DraftKings

How are sportsbooks going to do my guy Diego Pavia and the Vanderbilt Commodores dirty like this?

Pavia and Vandy have been one of the best stories in college football this season. Oddsmakers set their regular season win total at a paltry 2.5. Not only did they blow that number out of the water in the most improbable way possible with a win over Alabama, but they enter this week’s game against the Auburn Tigers with a 5-3 record — one win away from becoming bowl eligible.

Pavia has been one of the most exciting quarterbacks in college football, throwing for 1,534 yards with 13 touchdowns compared to just three interceptions while adding another 537 yards and four scores on the ground.

He’s led the Commodores to wins over Bama, Kentucky, and Virginia Tech, and they came oh-so-close to another huge upset in last week’s 27-24 loss to Texas as 17-point underdogs. The offense ranks 17th in EPA/play and 29th in success rate.

Yet, the Commodores are still getting more than a touchdown in this weekend’s matchup against the Tigers.

Now, Vanderbilt has a defense you can throw on a bit, but I’m not sure Auburn is the team to take advantage of that. Auburn comes into this game with a 3-5 record and just one SEC win, which was a 24-10 victory against Kentucky last week in a game where the Wildcats lost their starting quarterback.  

The Tigers' offense has been a problem all season long as they have struggled to finish drives. In fact, Auburn ranks 129th in the country in red-zone scoring percentage. Part of the issue has been the play under center. 

QB Payton Thorne was benched earlier this season due to performance and while he took the job back, he has left something to be desired. Thorne has completed less than 60% of his passes in four of his six games against FBS opponents while Auburn ranks 68th in offensive success rate on dropbacks.

Meanwhile, the Tigers' defense has been burned by explosive plays and Pavia should take advantage of that. Pavia led New Mexico State to a huge win over Auburn just last year as 25-point underdogs. Oh, and he also crushed Liberty when Freeze was there two seasons ago, 49-14 as 23-point pups.

So, sure. Give me the touchdown and a hook with Vandy. They are just 5-0 ATS as dogs, winning three of those games outright.

Illinois +3

Best odds: -112 at DraftKings

One thing we talk a lot about on College Football 134 (here is my weekly shameless plug for our pod, please go listen/like/subscribe) is how much we can overreact to a single result. 

So, with that in mind, the spread for this weekend’s matchup between the Illinois Fighting Illini and Minnesota Golden Gophers really stood out to me. Illinois is getting a field goal at home in this matchup, and my gut says the wrong team is favored here.

The Fighting Illini looked outclassed in a 38-9 beatdown handed to them by the Oregon Ducks. But the Ducks were supposed to outclass them. They are the No. 1 team in the country and were 23-point home favorites.

Illinois comes into this one with a 6-2 record with the only other loss this season being at Happy Valley against another Top 10 team in Penn State. The Illini have wins over Michigan and Nebraska to boot.

Quarterback Luke Altmyer has been solid, throwing for 1,667 yards with 15 touchdowns and just three interceptions, and the Illini rank 34th in success rate on dropbacks.

Yes, Minnesota comes into this one winners of three games in a row, but when you consider those matchups were against Maryland, UCLA, and USC, the streak losses a bit of its luster. Max Brosmer has been hot during this streak, but once again, look at some of the competition.

The Golden Gophers' defense has been solid, but it has also been very turnover-reliant, ranking 23rd in takeaways per game vs. FBS opponents. Illinois has been good at taking care of the football, ranking 44th in giveaways per game with most of those coming against the elite defenses of Oregon and Penn State. They also don’t create a ton of pressure, ranking 73rd in sack rate vs. FBS opponents.

Illinois has struggled against good teams. I’m not sure Minnesota qualifies as that. Plus, I have more faith in Altmyer than I do Brosmer at this point. I’ll take those three points with the home team in a game I think the Illini can definitely win.

Carson Hansen 80+ rushing yards

Best odds: +140 at FanDuel

By this point you guys know I love a good college football running back prop, so I'll focus on this weekend’s Big 12 matchup between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and the undefeated Iowa State Cyclones.

The Red Raiders have one of the best backs in the country that not enough people talk about in Tahj Brooks. Unfortunately, sportsbooks do know about Brooks, and he generally has an elevated rushing-yard prop.

Instead, I’ll turn my attention to Cyclones running back Carson Hansen. It appears that the sophomore back has supplanted Abu Sama as the Cyclones' top back this season, and not just because Sama has been a bit banged-up. 

Hansen has been given the role as the lead back and has run with it. Iowa State has fed Hansen 44 times over the last three games, totaling 284 yards and scoring five touchdowns. That works out to 6.5 yards per carry. And more importantly, it has made the Cyclones offense more balanced, helping them score 43, 28, and 38 points in the last three games.

Hansen hasn’t totaled less than 91 yards in those games and gets a great matchup against a shaky Texas Tech run defense. The Red Raiders rank 86th in defensive success rate vs. the rush and 102nd in opponent yards per carry vs. FBS opponents. 

It has gotten worse lately, too. TCU’s Savion Williams went 72 yards on 11 carries, Baylor’s Bryson Washington went 116 yards on 10 carries, and even Arizona’s Qauli Conley went for 97 yards on 14 attempts.

Hansen’s rushing yard prop is on the board at 66.5, but I’m going to back him to get at least 80+ for the fourth straight game at plus-money.