College Football Best Bets Week 13: Buried Treasure

The college football season is winding down, which is too bad because my Triple Option college football predictions have been on a good run, going 15-9 over the last eight weeks.

This week I have a variation of the SEC first-half Under theme, this time for the biggest game of the week. “Quit Watch” is in full effect for Oklahoma State, and East Carolina is building toward next season.

Here are my college football picks for Week 13.

College football best bets Week 13

• IND-OSU u26.5 1H (+100)
• TTU -3.5 (-110)
• ECU moneyline (+125)

Picks made on 11-22. Click each pick to read full analysis.

College football Week 13 best bets

Best bet #1: Indiana-Ohio State Under 26.5 first half total

Best odds: +100 at bet365

There’s no SEC first-half Under of the week but we will make do with this massive Big Ten battle between the Indiana Hoosiers and the Ohio State Buckeyes.

What Curt Cignetti has done in his first year at Indiana is nothing short of amazing, and his 10-0 start has already earned him a big raise to keep other programs from poaching him away.

On offense, the Hoosiers are led by quarterback Kurtis Rourke. The former Ohio Bobcats QB has thrown for 2,410 yards with 21 touchdowns and just four interceptions. But Indiana also has balance with running backs Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawson.

And you might not expect it, but Indiana enters this matchup leading the country in offensive success rate and is third in EPA/play. 

That said, the Hoosiers are coming off playing the toughest defense they had seen all season when they hosted the Michigan Wolverines last time out. The Wolverines limited Indiana to just 20 points, 40 yards rushing on 28 attempts, and held Rourke to 206 yards on 7.3 yards per attempt.

I’m not going out on a limb saying that Ohio State has a better defense than Michigan. The Buckeyes enter this game at 9-1 with their lone loss coming by one point on the road against top-ranked Oregon. They also have arguably the best defensive front seven in college football and enter this game ranked second in opponent EPA/play and fourth in defensive success rate.

As for the offense, freshman phenom Jerimiah Smith is unreal, but the Buckeyes really rely on the run game with Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson in top form.

However, it won’t be easy sledding because the Hoosiers' defense might be the most underrated unit in this game. Indiana ranks ninth in defensive success rate.

Chip Kelly leaning on his backs, two excellent defenses, and a great Curt Cignetti gameplan. This game is going to be tightly contested and low-scoring in the first half. Give me the first-half Under, particularly at even money.

Best bet #2: Texas Tech -3.5

Best odds: -110 at BetMGM

We’ve talked a lot about teams on “Quit Watch” the last few weeks. Well, you can take away the “Watch” for Mike Gundy’s Oklahoma State Cowboys.

Oklahoma State enters this week’s game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders having lost seven games in a row. They are 1-6 against the spread in those games, and four of those losses came by at least three touchdowns. And now bowl eligibility is long gone. So, what do the Pokes do from here?

Well, Ollie Gordon and the offense are broken. A year after rushing for 1,732 yards at 6.1 yards per carry, he's got just 714 yards and 4.2 yards per carry through 10 games. The Pokes have put up 21 points or fewer five times over the last seven games.

But it’s Oklahoma State’s defense that will be a problem. The Cowboys rank 112th in defensive success rate and I’m not sure they’ll be able to contain the best running back in this game. That is Red Raiders star back Tahj Brooks.

Brooks has rumbled for 1,184 yards at 5.0 yards per carry while finding the end zone 11 times. He’ll face a Pokes defense that ranks 99th in EPA/rush and 90th in success rate vs. the rush. 

Meanwhile, quarterback Behern Morton gives this Red Raiders offense balance and OK State is even worse at defending the pass, ranking 121st in success rate on dropbacks and 103rd in EPA/dropback.

Texas Tech will be ticked off after letting a lead against Colorado slip away last week. So, the Red Raiders will exact some revenge against a Cowboys team that already looks like it has packed it up for the season. I’ll lay the short chalk with Texas Tech here.

Best bet #3: East Carolina moneyline

Best odds: +125 at BetMGM

While we spend an awful lot of time on teams who are on “Quit Watch” at this point in the season, you also have to keep your eyes out for teams who are building toward something for next season.

That’s why the East Carolina Pirates have my attention. It looks like the Pirates may have found something in sophomore quarterback Katin Houser. The Michigan State transfer has been slinging it.

Houser made his first start against Army back on Oct. 19, and despite the fact ECU lost that game, Houser went 24-for-38 for 282 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. Since then, the Pirates haven’t lost a game, putting up at least 38 points in each.

Houser has now thrown for 1,208 yards with 14 touchdowns and six picks in just four games. So, now the Pirates have an offense to go along with a defense that ranks 24th in success rate, and I expect Houser and ECU to keep cooking this week against the North Texas Mean Green.

North Texas enters this matchup having lost four in a row (1-3 ATS) thanks to a defense that has really struggled. The Mean Green has surrendered 45 or more points in three of those four losses. As a result, they rank 112th in EPA/play allowed and 103rd in defensive success rate. Against the pass, the Mean Green rank 79th in success rate and 94th in EPA/dropback.

Houser makes the Pirates offense balanced and I’m not sure if sportsbooks have properly adjusted to that yet. North Texas is laying three points at home here but I believe the wrong team is favored.

I think East Carolina wins this one outright and will be betting the Pirates on the moneyline in this AAC matchup on Saturday afternoon.

Get more CFB picks from the College Football 134 podcast

Join Andrew, and co-host Douglas Farmer, on the College Football 134 podcast, published every Tuesday and live on the Covers YouTube channel every Saturday at 9 a.m.
Check out the latest Tuesday episode below:

College football odds for Week 13

Here are the full college football odds for this week.

Pages related to this topic