College Football Player Props and Best Bets for Week 9: Thriving Playmakers

Prop bet #1: Giddy for Giddens

The Kansas State Wildcats have a clear identity — they’re going to try to push you around in the trenches and out-physical you on offense while standing their ground and refusing to get pushed around on defense. They’ve been able to pull off this game plan for the most part in 2023, sitting with a 5-2 record and entering Week 9 fresh off a 41-3 demolition of TCU. 

They have a dominant rushing attack that averages 232.7 yards per game and racks up 5.6 yards per rush. Redshirt sophomore DJ Giddens leads the way with 103 attempts for 626 yards and five touchdowns. Books have decided to price his rushing yardage total at 64.5 on Saturday in a juicy matchup against a porous Houston Cougars defense. 

Dana Holgorsen’s squad ranks just 116th in EPA per play and 103rd in success rate this year and has been dreadful against the rush, checking in at 118th in EPA per rush while surrendering 159.1 yards per game on the ground. There’s been a lot of talk lately about Houston moving to a three-man front defensively, but that doesn’t change the fact that the Cougars can’t tackle (112th in PFF’s tackling grade). 

That’s a big problem against a back like Giddens who runs behind a terrific offensive line that happens to be in its best form yet this season. Star left guar Cooper Beebe paves the way for a unit that ranks 20th in line yards and eighth in front seven havoc. They should be able to pave clear running lanes for Giddens against a Houston front that hasn’t spent much time in opposing backfields, checking in at 129th in front seven havoc. 

The Wildcats running back does share touches a bit as his team spreads around the carries, but he’s the leader of the room still and may not even need double-digit carries to top this deflated number. Give me the Over. 

DJ Giddens prop: Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: UCFs on Your Defensive Report Card

The UCF Knights deserve a big fat ‘F’ for the rush defense on their report card through Week 8 of the season. That may sound harsh, but there’s no other way to say it — the Knights have been woeful at stopping opping rushers. 

Gus Malzahn’s defense allows 196 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry. That number looks even worse if you filter out games against Kent State (one of the worst teams in the FBS) and Villanova (an FCS team) — the Knights are surrendering a whopping 239 rushing yards in their other five games, which would rank second-last nationally. 

The defensive front has offered little to no resistance, routinely getting pushed off the ball deep. It shows up both on film and in the metrics, where the Knights rank 127th in line yards and 132nd in front-seven havoc defensively. Even including the Kent State and Villanova games, they rank just 115th in EPA per rush and 128th in rushing success rate. 

All of this is a problem in Week 9 against a West Virginia Mountaineers offense that wants to run the ball first, second, third, and then maybe fourth too if they get there. Neal Brown’s offense ranks sixth nationally in rush rate, toting the ball 44.7 times per game for 191.4 yards. 

West Virginia will look to establish their identity on the road at the Bounce House by doing what it does best — three yards and a cloud of dust. That should mean plenty of work for sophomore running back CJ Donaldson, who leads the team with 116 attempts for 453 yards and six scores. He takes the aforementioned phrase seriously as he averaged just 3.9 yards per carry, but one would expect a performance above his season-long averages here and a boost in efficiency against a pushover UCF front.

CJ Donaldson prop: Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Holy Cowing

Jedd Fisch’s Arizona Wildcats host Jonathan Smith’s Oregon State Beavers in one of the more under-the-radar games this weekend that should be very competitive.

Here’s the thing about Oregon State’s defense. Firstly, it’s a bit overrated — it’s a fine group, but it’s not up to last year’s unit and is still being priced like it is in the market after taking advantage of some soft matchups early in the year. Secondly, it doesn’t travel well whatsoever — the Beavers wrap up and are tough to beat when they’re playing at Reser Stadium but fall apart on the road. They’ve played two offenses with a pulse on the road and were burned for 38 points on 528 total yards and 8.1 yards per play by Washington State and then allowed 40 points on 447 total yards and 6.9 yards per play against a bad Cal team on its third string, redshirt freshman quarterback. Thirdly, it has injury concerns in the secondary. 

Most people will be interested in the health of Arizona quarterback Jayden de Laura, but that doesn’t matter to me too much — Noah Fifita has played well in his stead and this offense should keep clicking regardless of who is QB1. The Wildcats rank 24th in EPA per pass and 10th in passing success rate this year and have been effective with both de Laura and Fifita as they have an elite receiving duo to target. I’m more concerned that the Beavers will be without starting cornerback Ryan Cooper, who leads all Beaver corners with an 81.5 coverage grade according to PFF. True freshman Jermod McCoy is expected to start, which will be a very difficult ask on the road against one of the best receiving duos in the country. 

I’m not scared of this matchup for Arizona. Fisch’s offense is really good for a second straight year, ranking 15th in EPA per play and fifth in success rate. I’m not scared of this Beaver defense on the road and they rank just 75th in success rate on the year, so the market expectation isn’t backed up by the numbers. Arizona’s offense should have the advantage when it has the ball.

I expect a big day from Arizona’s passing attack and it boils down to which receiver I’d target for their respective receiving yardage Over — Jacob Cowing at 68.5 or Tetairoa McMillan at 65.5. Both are among the most talented and most productive receivers in the Pac-12 and would be household names if they played in another conference. 

Personally, I’ll be playing both Overs as I think they’re priced way too low. For this article, I’m rolling with Cowing as they play because he’s been a target hog, providing him with a high floor and means that he should have less volatility from week to week. Cowing is averaging 11 targets per game this season and his workload has been remarkably consistent as he’s seen no fewer than 11 targets in all six games against FBS competition.

Jacob Cowing prop: Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)