It’s crazy how a couple of wins in college football can completely change the narrative around a program. A few seasons ago, people were asking whether Jim Harbaugh would ever beat Ohio State, and wondering if one more loss against their biggest rival would mean the end of his time in Ann Arbor.
Fast forward two years and Michigan is the back-to-back Big Ten conference champion, which includes two straight victories over the Buckeyes and two College Football Playoff appearances. And with the talent that’s returning, the Wolverines are poised to make it three in a row for each.
But the college football odds have Ohio State as the favorite to return to the top of the conference. Can Penn State make three a crowd and join the big boys at the top of the standings?
Here are my best bets plus some Heisman Trophy odds hopefuls in my 2023 Big Ten betting preview.
Odds to win the Big Ten
| Team |  |
 |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ohio State Buckeyes |
+165 | +165 | +175 | +180 |
 Michigan Wolverines |
+170 | +180 | +180 | +180 |
 Penn State Nittany Lions |
+600 | +550 | +575 | +550 |
 Wisconsin Badgers |
+750 | +850 | +900 | +550 |
 Iowa Hawkeyes |
+1,200 | +1,200 | +1,000 | +1,000 |
 Illinois Fighting Illini |
+3,000 | +9,500 | +2,000 | +5,000 |
 Minnesota Golden Gophers |
+4,000 | +3,400 | +1,600 | +3,000 |
 Nebraska Cornhuskers |
+6,000 | +7,500 | +2,200 | +6,000 |
 Maryland Terrapins |
+8,000 | +5,500 | +10,000 | +6,000 |
 Purdue Boilermakers |
+10,000 | +9,500 | +10,000 | +10,000 |
 Michigan State Spartans |
+15,000 | +11,000 | +10,000 | +15,000 |
 Rutgers Scarlet Knights |
+30,000 | OTB | +12,500 | +20,000 |
 Northwestern Wildcats |
+30,000 | +42,000 | +20,000 | +25,000 |
 Indiana Hoosiers |
+50,000 | +30,000 | +20,000 | +25,000 |
Best college football bonuses
Looking to bet on some Big Ten futures? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at BetMGM can get up to $1,000 in bonus bets if your first bet doesn’t win! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get up to $1,250 in bonus bets if your first bet doesn’t win at Caesars! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Big Ten betting preview 2023
Ohio State season preview
- Odds to win National championship: +650 at DraftKings
- Season win total: 10.5 at DraftKings
Ohio State hasn’t really had too many questions at the quarterback position for more than a decade now, I would say since Braxton Miller became the starter back in 2012. But with C.J. Stroud becoming a first-round pick for the Houston Texans in last April’s NFL Draft, that’s not the case in 2023.
This year they have a real quarterback competition on their hands between Kyle McCord and Devin Brown. Head coach Ryan Day has said they have split first-team reps through Ohio State’s first week of practices. But whoever is under center at Indiana on Sept. 2, they’re going to have arguably the best selection of weapons in the entire country.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is being called the best wide receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson by some. He is coming off a year in which he hauled in 77 balls for 1,263 yards and 14 touchdowns. Oh, and he’s flanked by another potential first-round pick in Emeka Egbuka. All he did last year was make 74 catches for 1,151 yards and 10 touchdowns. Then there is the backfield featuring studs TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams.
The defense showed dramatic improvement in Jim Knowles' first year as defensive coordinator. And they could be even better with seven starters improving.
But Ohio State’s success will all come down to can effectively use those weapons and not be intimated by heading into the Big House and having to take on an equally talented Michigan team. The Buckeyes are currently the favorites to win the Big Ten, but I'm not sure they should be.
Michigan season preview
- Odds to win National championship: +800 at DraftKings
- Season win total: 10.5 at DraftKings
Michigan is coming off a 2022 campaign where they went 13-1, which included a massive road win at Ohio State. The Wolverines didn’t only just beat their rivals, but crushed them 45-23. The lone loss came as an 8-point favorite to TCU in the Fiesta Bowl, which served as the College Football Playoff Semifinal.
So, the goals for Michigan this season are simple. Close the regular season with a win at the Big House against the Buckeyes, win a third straight Big Ten Conference title, return to the CFP, and win a national championship. Easy, right?
Not really. But it is realistic considering the talent Michigan returns to Ann Arbor this season.
It all starts with quarterback J.J. McCarthy. The junior had an outstanding first full season as Michigan’s starting quarterback, throwing for 2,719 yards with 22 touchdowns compared to just five interceptions while adding another 306 yards and five scores on the ground.
But it’s the Wolverines' balance that will make them truly dangerous. Michigan boasts arguably the best one-two punch at running back in the entire country. Blake Corum is the lead man in the backfield, while Donovan Edwards is a potential home run threat every time he touches the ball.
Put those guys behind what should be one of the top offensive lines in the nation, and the Wolverines offense will be tough to stop.
They also return seven starters to a defense that ranked fourth in the country in opponent yards per play vs. FBS opponents a season ago. This is a really good football team.
Penn State season preview
- Odds to win National championship: +2,200 at DraftKings
- Season win total: 9.5 at DraftKings
While James Franklin has had some good teams during his tenure at Penn State, including a conference championship back in 2016, the Nittany Lions have seemed like the little brother to Michigan and Ohio State. But Franklin is hoping this is the year that changes.
And that’s in large part because of who will be playing quarterback. After what felt like a decade, Sean Clifford has finally moved on from Happy Valley. But despite losing Clifford’s experience, I believe they are getting an upgrade at the position with sophomore Drew Allar.
Allar has the most talented arm of any quarterback Franklin has ever had at Penn State. He’s the type of guy who can elevate those around him. And those around him are pretty good.
Allar will play behind one of the best offensive lines in the country, anchored by left tackle Olu Fashunu, who will likely be the first offensive lineman selected in next April’s NFL Draft. Penn State also has a backfield that rivals that of Michigan and Ohio State. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen combined for 1,928 yards and 22 touchdowns as true freshmen.
But the Nittany Lions could be even scarier on the other side of the ball. They ranked third in the nation in opponent yards per play when facing FBS opponents. They have an elite pass rush, and that’s backed up by what may be the best secondary in the country. That's despite losing Joey Porter Jr. to the NFL.
If Allar can be a difference-maker, Penn State will make some noise and will have an outside shot at the College Football Playoff.
The rest of the field
The Big Ten divisions continue to be lopsided with the top three teams in the East Division. But there are some intriguing storylines in the West as well, starting of course with Luke Fickell’s debut at Wisconsin.
Fickell came to prominence from his time at Cincinnati, where the Bearcats became the first Group of Five team to ever qualify for the College Football Playoff. Fickell’s changes in Madison are coming hard and fast. A team known for running the football and defense will now throw more. They brought in Tanner Mordecai from SMU to run the new offense. But will they have the personnel to make it work?
Iowa is always a team that’s overlooked. But then you blink and they have nine wins when all is said and done. Kirk Ferentz’s squad is always known for its elite defense and, usually, a painfully low-scoring offense. But will that change in 2023 with quarterback Cade McNamara transferring from Michigan? Mix in a soft schedule, and don’t be shocked if the Hawkeyes end up in the conference title game.
Meanwhile, the Matt Rhule era begins at Nebraska. Rhule returns to college after a failed stint in the NFL and is tasked with turning around a program that is still longing for its glory days from the 90s. But Rhule is credited with rebuilding the programs at Temple and Baylor. Will he have the same success in Lincoln?
Pick to win the Big Ten: Michigan (+180)
This is arguably Jim Harbaugh’s best Michigan team to date. You can make the case the Wolverines are better than Ohio State at every position except wide receiver. The Game will be played at the Big House, which most would consider the pseudo-Big Ten title game. So, it’s interesting to see Michigan is behind Ohio State when it comes to conference winner odds, even if it’s not that big a difference (the Buckeyes are as low as +160).
But for me, it comes down to the quarterbacks. I’m sure whoever wins the Ohio State job will put up some good numbers this season, but we’ve already seen J.J. McCarthy perform at the highest level in big games already.
And while Michigan has some lofty goals this season, it feels like Ohio State has all the pressure, having lost to the Wolverines in back-to-back years. A third in a row could place Ryan Day on the hot seat. I’m betting Michigan and Harbaugh get the job done once again.
Big Ten best win total bets for 2023
Maryland Over 7 wins
Do you want to know how stacked the Big Ten East Division is? I like the fourth-best team in the division to go Over their win total of 7 this season. And that team is the Maryland Terrapins.
The Terrapins' high-octane offense should be in peak form in 2023 as star quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa returns. Tagovailoa has thrown for 6,868 yards with 44 touchdowns over the last two seasons. He has excellent weapons and should be playing behind a much-better offensive line built through the transfer portal.
No one really thinks about defense when talking about the Terps, but they saw a massive improvement on that side of the ball in 2022. They limited opponents to 23.1 points per game and ranked 25th in opponent yards per play vs. FBS opponents.
Maryland needed to replace some starters, but once again did a solid job in the transfer portal.
And you’ve got to love Maryland’s schedule. The Terps should be favored in nine of their 12 games. They start the season with three straight home games vs. Townson, Charlotte, and Virginia. Then they open Big Ten play at Michigan State and vs. Indiana.
A 5-0 start is staring them right in the face before a date with Ohio State. That is one of the three expected losses, which of course also includes Michigan and Penn State.
That means they just need three wins against the likes of Illinois, Northwestern, Nebraska, and Rutgers. The Terps could be fun this season, and I love the Over on their win total.
Best odds: -155 at DraftKings
Michigan State Under 5.5 wins
This is certainly an East themed preview. But not everyone in that division is going to have a good time this season. I’m looking at you Michigan State.
The Spartans were once a legitimate rival to Michigan and would always be good enough to push for a conference title once every few years. That looks a long way off at this point, and Mel Tucker’s seat is looking quite hot.
Michigan State is coming off a 5-8 season where the offense struggled to adjust to life without Kenneth Walker and the defense just struggled. Sparty was then dealt a big blow this offseason when quarterback Payton Thorne, as well as their top wide-out, entered the transfer portal following spring practice.
So, a team that was already scuffling now has to replace a lot of snaps at key positions. Oh, and they play in the East, which means matchups against all of the big boys. Not to mention their crossover games are also tough, as they’ll have to travel to Iowa and Minnesota. They even have a difficult non-conference matchup with Washington early in the season.
I count just three expected wins on the Spartans’ schedule, and even matchups against Nebrasksa and at Indiana look like relative toss ups. It is going to take a lot for Michigan State to become bowl eligible this season. It seems unlikely Sparty gets there.
Best odds: -158 at FanDuel
Best Heisman Trophy bets for the Big Ten
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Everyone knows that it’s hard for non-quarterbacks to win the Heisman Trophy, but if there’s anyone who can do it this season, it’s Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.
He’s being touted as one of the most talented wide receiver prospects in years. He does it all. He’s fast, has great hands and body control, and is an elite route runner. It’s also hard to double Harrison with Emeka Egbuka on the other side.
As noted, he went off for nearly 80 catches and 1,300 yards in 2022. But he’ll need to up that production even more if he wants to be just the fifth non-QB to win the Award since the year 2000.
Luckily, we have a precedent recently for a wideout winning the Award with DeVonta Smith pulling off the rare feat in 2020 with Alabama. Smith was incredible that year, as the Crimson Tide wide receiver hauled in a ridiculous 117 catches for 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns.
So, Harrison Jr. would have to put up a similar stat line to win the award. But if there’s anyone who can do it, it’s Harrison. Plus, you can expect the inexperienced Buckeyes QB to lean on their uber-talented wideout.
Drew Allar, QB, Penn State
Drew Allar is the type of quarterback talent that can take Penn State back to the Big Ten Championship game. The sophomore has the arm talent and intangibles to be a star quarterback in college football, and he will be given all the tools to succeed in his first season as the Nittany Lions’ starter.
Allar will play behind one of the best offensive lines in the county and will be supported by an excellent backfield. A backfield that is so good, it will be difficult for opposing defenses to key on any one aspect of the Penn State offense and allow things to open up in the passing game.
That should have offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich very excited. Yurcich’s first two years at Penn State were Sean Clifford’s best. He threw for 5,929 yards with 45 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Allar’s ceiling is much higher than Clifford’s.
Allar looked good in limited action last season, making some impressive throws on his way to 344 yards and four scores with no picks. I’m betting we see a lot more of that this season.
Big Ten stat to know
An East Division team has won the Big Ten championship in 10 consecutive years. The last West team to do so was Wisconsin in 2012.
