Ohio State vs Michigan NCAAF Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets: Buckeyes Roll in Spartans Territory

The Ohio State Buckeyes open Big Ten play tonight against a rebuilding Michigan State Spartans program coming off a heartbreaking loss.

Given how impressive the Buckeyes have looked to start the season, my Ohio State vs. Michigan State predictions expect another blowout victory for Ryan Day’s program.

Read more in my college football picks for Saturday, September 28.

Ohio State vs Michigan State prediction

My best bet
Ohio State -23.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
The Michigan State Spartans are getting far too much respect with this spread. While it beat an underachieving Maryland team and nearly knocked off an overrated Boston College team, this program is still several years away from being competitive against the upper echelon of the Big Ten.

The biggest reason the Ohio State Buckeyes are poised to cover is that this MSU offense is one of the worst in the Power 4. Quarterback Aidan Chiles has thrown nearly double the interceptions (7) that he has touchdowns (4), and he leads the country in turnover-worthy plays (11), per PFF.

Head coach Jonathan Smith just doesn’t have the talent to compete against this Buckeyes defense. Michigan State is 114th in SP+ on offense and 83rd in EPA per dropback with Chiles under center. With all their issues passing the ball, the Spartans want to lean on their ground game, but that won't be so easy against Ohio State. The Buckeyes are fourth in EPA per rush on defense and allow the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game in the country (66.7).

An early lead from Ohio State’s explosive offense will only further put pressure on Chiles and this passing game. And it doesn’t stand a chance against Ohio State’s pass defense — it’s eighth in EPA per dropback. Thanks to having several future NFL players in its secondary and on its D-line, Ohio State is allowing the fifth-least passing yards per game this season (113.3).

So while Michigan State’s defense has had some bright moments early, it won’t be able to survive without support from its offense. Especially with the way Chip Kelly’s offense has been mashing in the run game this season. The Buckeyes are 4th in EPA per rush on offense behind the play of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. Those two have combined to force 25 missed tackles and rack up 249 yards after contact.

And the passing game should find even more success against a Michigan State defense that’s 56th in EPA per dropback. Michigan State simply doesn’t have the ability to score enough to cover the spread.

Ohio State vs Michigan State same-game parlay (SGP)

Ohio State -22.5

Under 48.5

Will Howard 2+ passing touchdowns

+450 at BetMGM

While I do expect a Buckeyes blowout win, the combination of Ohio State’s devastating defense and Michigan State’s catastrophic offense should help this Under hit. Both these defenses rank Top 25 in SP+, with Ohio State first and Michigan State 22nd, so it’s fair to assume the Buckeyes won’t score enough on their own to hit this Over. Instead, I expect Ohio State’s win to be in the 34-6 range.

That doesn’t mean Will Howard won’t put up some impressive numbers. The Kansas State transfer has been efficient in his first three games as a Buckeye, with a 76.8% adjusted completion rate and six TD passes. 

And he, along with Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith, should be able to get after a Spartans secondary that allowed two TD passes in its lone Big Ten game against Maryland.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Ohio State vs Michigan State odds

Ohio State vs Michigan State live odds

Ohio State vs Michigan State opening odds

• Ohio State vs. Michigan State spread: Michigan State +23.5
• Ohio State vs. Michigan State moneyline: Ohio State -5,000, Michigan State +1,500
• Ohio State vs. Michigan State Over/Under: 49.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Ohio State vs Michigan State spread and Over/Under analysis

• Ohio State opened as a 23.5-point favorite, with a few books coming up to between -24 and -24.5.
  
  
• The Buckeyes are just 1-2 ATS this season, while the Spartans are 2-2.
  
  
• The Over/Under opened as high as 50.5 but has since come down to 48.5 at most books.
  
  
• Ohio State is 3-0 betting the Over this season, and Michigan State is 1-3.

Ohio State vs Michigan State betting trend to know

Ohio State has covered the spread in seven of its last 12 games for +1.55 units and a 12% ROI.  Find more college football betting trends for Ohio State vs Michigan.

Ohio State vs Michigan State game info

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