An intense rivalry will be renewed this afternoon when the North Carolina Tar Heels travel down Tobacco Road to Durham and take on the undefeated Duke Blue Devils.
Find out why my North Carolina vs. Duke predictions expect this rivalry game to be loaded with offensive fireworks as I serve up my best college football picks for Week 5 on Saturday, September 28.
North Carolina vs Duke prediction
My best bet
Over 56 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The North Carolina Tar Heels took their first loss of the season last week in a shocking result where they allowed 70 points to James Madison. The Dukes were able to throw for 388 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions. That spells trouble for this defense against a Duke Blue Devils team that ranks 49th in the country in passing.
Duke also has some excellent stats on the defensive end, but they have not faced an offense like North Carolina’s yet.
Duke has struggled to contain the run, and the Tar Heels rank 24th in the country at 221.8 rushing yards per contest. New starting quarterback Jacolby Criswell has also provided a spark in the struggling passing game, as he threw for 475 yards last week in his first start. That balanced attack will provide a new wrinkle to the Blue Devils defense that they have yet to see.
Neither team ranks inside the Top 100 in time of possession this season, which tells me that this game will not be slow paced. Both teams are also solid at converting red-zone attempts into touchdowns. The Tar Heels have converted 11 of 16 trips into six points, and the Blue Devils have converted 11 of 17.
These two have played in several shootouts with each other over the last few years and I like the chances of this being another one. The North Carolina defense is not good, but they will be able to score with their new balanced attack and big-play ability. If the Tar Heels get to around 24-28 points, this Over should not be much of a sweat.
North Carolina vs Duke same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 56
Eli Pancol anytime TD
Omarion Hampton anytime TD
I am backing a Duke wide receiver to find the end zone since the Tar Heels struggle to stop the pass. Eli Pancol only has 15 catches through four games, but four of those went for touchdowns. He also has a rushing TD in his career against North Carolina.
Finally, I will look to the best player on North Carolina to score, and that is running back Omarion Hampton. He has six touchdowns already this season and had 15 last year. He also scored against Duke in 2023.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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North Carolina vs Duke odds
North Carolina vs Duke live odds
North Carolina vs Duke opening odds
- North Carolina vs. Duke spread: Duke -3
- North Carolina vs. Duke moneyline: North Carolina +130, Duke -153
- North Carolina vs. Duke Over/Under: 56
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
North Carolina vs Duke spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread opened before the season at North Carolina -3 but flipped to Duke -3 when it re-opened at the start of this week. It has moved down to 2.5 as of Thursday night.
- The underdog has covered each of the last two meetings and six of the last 10. Four of those six were covers while still losing straight up.
- The total opened at 55.5 and has slightly moved up to 56 as of Thursday night.
- Four of the last six meetings have gone Over the total.
North Carolina vs Duke betting trend to know
North Carolina has hit the 1H Over in six of its last 10 games. Find more college football betting trends for North Carolina vs Duke.
North Carolina vs Duke game info
| Location: | Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, NC |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-28-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
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