The Boise State Broncos will meet the Oregon State Beavers for the first time since 2016 in a Mountain West vs. Pac-12 showdown on Saturday night at Reser Stadium.
Both teams finished with seven wins overall in 2021, but Boise State is projected to top the Mountain West this year in Andy Avalos’ second season as head coach, while Oregon State is expected to land somewhere in the middle of its conference.
Nonetheless, this cross-conference matchup should be close, with the home team opening as a 4-point favorite at most books.
Below, we give you our best free college football picks and predictions for Boise State vs. Oregon State in Week 1 of the 2022 college football season.
Boise State vs Oregon State odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Boise State opened as a 3.5- to 4-point underdog at most sportsbooks, with the line settling at 2.5 to 3 by midweek. The total opened at 59.5 at FanDuel but has shifted down to 57.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Boise State vs Oregon State predictions
Predictions made on 9/1/2022 at 8:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 college football season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $150 in free bets! Sign Up Now
B) New users at DraftKings can get a deposit bonus up to $1,000. Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of College football promo codes for 2022.
Boise State vs Oregon State game info
• Location: Reser Stadium, Corvallis, OR
• Date: Saturday, September 3, 2022
• Kick-off: 10:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Boise State vs Oregon State betting preview
Weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Key injuries
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in Oregon State’s last six home games and 7-0 in Boise State’s last seven games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Boise State vs. Oregon State.
Boise State vs Oregon State picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Broncos underwhelmed last season but will look to kick off the new campaign with a victory against a team that has not won a season opener since 2015.
Boise State will return senior quarterback Hank Bachmeier, who threw for 3,079 yards (32nd in college football) in 2021, completed 62.8% of his passes, and recorded 20 touchdown passes against eight interceptions.
He was also sacked 24 times as he played behind a pedestrian offensive line that was reeling from injuries. The addition of Washington State transfer Cade Beresford could help improve the unit and increase the production from the run game.
Junior running back George Holani missed three games last season while dealing with knee and soft tissue injuries, and finished with 569 rushing yards and one TD on 119 carries. He turned a corner at the end of the season, with three straight 100-yard rushing games in wins over Fresno State, Wyoming, and New Mexico.
As a freshman, the 5-foot-11 back ran for 1,014 yards and seven TDs, so if he can stay upright, his production is likely to skyrocket this season.
Boise State averaged 260.6 passing yards per contest (fifth most in the Mountain West) and 122.2 rushing yards per outing (fifth fewest in the conference).
The Broncos’ strength was its scoring defense, which ranked first in the Mountain West and Top 15 in the FBS with 19 points surrendered per game. Boise State was especially tough against the pass, but its defensive line was a weakness and allowed 158.6 rushing yards on average.
Last season, Oregon State ranked third in the Pac-12 in rushing yards per game (212.4) and put up 31.2 points per contest, while the Beavers defense gave up 387.8 yards and 25.9 points per game. But reports out of camp indicate the stop unit has improved, and the offensive line is one of the team’s biggest strengths.
Junior quarterback Chance Nolan will once again lead the offense after completing 64.2% of his passes for 2,677 yards, with 19 TD passes and 10 interceptions. He also ranked fourth on the team in rushing yards, with 286 and ran the ball into the end zone three times.
Leading rusher BJ Baylor (1,337 yards, 13 TDs) graduated, so Deshaun Fenwick (448 yards, 4 TDs) has been elevated to No. 1 on the depth chart. Junior Trey Lowe (359 rushing yards, 6.4 yards per carry) should also see an increase in touches.
The Beavers’ top receiver from last year, Trevon Bradford (631 yards, 5 TDs) is also gone, leaving Tre'Shaun Harrison as the likely No. 1 target.
Oregon State is 5-4 in its series with Boise State, but the Broncos won the most recent meeting, 38-24, in 2016.
Boise State’s 7-5 campaign in 2021 marked the school’s fewest wins in a full season since 1998, but Avalos — who previously served as a defensive coach at Oregon — has had time to adjust and can get this Mountain West squad back to its old winning ways.
The Broncos have a solid quarterback they can rely on, and the defense should be fairly similar to last year’s.
Oregon State was undefeated at home in the regular season, but Week 1 has been a rough spot for the Beavers historically, and with a few key skill players gone, Boise State should have a slight upper hand.
Prediction: Boise State +2.5 (+100 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
Oregon State has an arsenal of running backs it can turn to and will want to stay low to the ground to test one of Boise State’s weaknesses.
Nolan won’t be asked to do too much in the passing game against the Broncos defense, which ranked 21st in the nation in turnovers, with 23 through 12 games.
Boise State’s offense can trust Bachmeier should the Broncos need him, but Holani showed what he can do when closer to full strength at the end of last season, when the Broncos reeled off four consecutive victories and stayed close with a then-ranked San Diego State team in the regular-season finale.
Holani will get a chance to replicate that late-season production from out the gate and will be the key to getting the Broncos a road win in Week 1 to spark some confidence that they can put their five-loss season far behind them.
Prediction: Under 57.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Best bet
In the LA Bowl last December, Oregon State fell to the Mountain West’s Utah State Aggies, 24-13, while allowing running back Calvin Tyler to rush for 120 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries.
Holani will look to feast on Oregon State in similar fashion, and if the Boise State line has improved from last season, the fourth-year back could have a field day.
The Under is 7-0 in the Broncos’ last seven games and 5-0 in their last five road games, while the total has gone Under in five of the Beavers’ last six non-conference games and five of their last six home games.
Both teams will test one another on the ground, and Boise State has the talent on defense to make life miserable for Nolan when he tries to move the ball through the air.
Pick: Under 57.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Did you know that if you parlayed our Boise State vs. Oregon State picks, you could win $28.18 on a $10 bet?
Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
