Boise State vs Washington Odds, Picks, and Predictions: McMillan Makes the Grade

Boise State hopes to build off a solid 2022 season when they open their new campaign against 10th-ranked Washington on Saturday afternoon.

The Broncos — who are two-touchdown underdogs in the college football odds — are hoping to buck the trend of the road team struggling in this rivalry, with all three games on either team’s campus seeing the home team come away with the win. They’re also hoping to overcome having three receivers out with injury.

Michael Penix Jr. is a Heisman candidate, and is ready to build on a season where he threw for more than 4,600 yards and 31 touchdowns. The Huskies need him to have a big season if they hope to leave the Pac 12 as conference champions. 

Who will win the battle between Boise State’s secondary and Washington’s passing attack? That’s what we’ll discuss in our Boise State vs Washington college football picks and predictions for Saturday, September 2.  

Boise State vs Washington best odds

Boise State vs Washington picks and predictions

Everyone raved about Boise State’s pass defense last season. They ranked fourth in all of FBS with just 170.9 yards allowed per game. But when you dive deeper into the numbers, was their pass defense really that great? 

Sure, they held Fresno State’s 35th-ranked passing attack to just 134 yards, but that was actually the outlier. In fact, over half the teams they played ranked 100th or worse in passing pards per game.

New Mexico averaged less than 100 yards through the air per contest and was among the worst passing teams in college football. San Diego State ranked 112th in passing offense. Colorado State? They ranked 102nd. Nevada ranked 116th in yards per game. Air Force…was Air Force, with just 67.3 yards passing per game. 

Just how skewed was Boise State’s defensive ranking against the pass? Well, three of their seven opponents ranked in the Bottom 7… out of 131 teams. Two of them — New Mexico and Air Force — threw for fewer than 2,000 yards combined over 24 games!

So what happened when they played a competent quarterback? They got shredded. For all their hype, Boise State allowed 12.9 yards per completed pass. That was the 25th-worst mark in all of college football.

BYU’s Jaren Hall dropped 377 yards on them and a trio of touchdowns. Oregon State threw for 292 yards on 24 attempts — and they averaged less than 190 yards passing per game. North Texas, ranked 36th in passing YPG, dropped 259 on Boise State’s secondary. 

So you’re going to have to excuse me if I’m not impressed. You’re also going to have to excuse me if you hear me laughing loudly at anybody who honestly thinks they’re going to give Michael Penix Jr. a problem on Saturday. 

Looking deeper into that BYU game, stud receiver Puka Nacua had himself a day. He hauled in 14 catches for 157 yards and a pair of scores. But teammate Hinckley Ropati went for 82 yards himself on just three catches and added a touchdown as well. They were two of four different receivers who caught multiple passes with a YPC over 17.0 yards. 

Which brings us back to this game. There’s going to be plenty of big plays to go around for both Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan. Washington’s Top 2 receivers each hauled in at least 75 catches and over 1,090 yards apiece. And they both have very friendly yardage props for this game.

But McMillan’s number is a bit lower. He’s got a total of 69.5 yards at FanDuel, and that’s a number he topped in eight of his 13 games last season, and he averaged almost 14 yards per reception.

Penix Jr. isn’t going to be slowed down by an overrated secondary, especially one replacing as many pieces as Boise State is. Look for him to have a great day, with McMillan easily eclipsing 70 yards receiving.  

My best bet: Jalen McMillan Over 69.5 receiving yards (-114 at Fanduel)

Boise State vs Washington same-game parlay

McMillan o69.5 receiving yards

Penix Jr o2.5 passing TDs

Boise State u21.5 points

+393 at FanDuel

Let’s add a pair of plays to my best bet to round out a solid three-leg same-game parlay.

I’m going to stay away from the yardage total for Penix Jr, because I worry this game could be so lopsided that he gets pulled before he hits the 320-yard mark. Instead, I’m targeting his touchdown total. 

He threw at least three touchdowns in five games last season, and averaged three per game in Washington’s opening four contests. 

I also don’t think Boise State is going to get past three touchdowns. 

As we’ll discuss more shortly, they’re going to likely have to abandon their power-run game early as they fall behind, and the improved Washington defense will use the imposing crowd noise to their advantage. That’s bad news for an offense missing three of their top playmakers at receiver due to injury. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Boise State vs Washington spread and Over/Under analysis

Washington is the outright favorite in this contest, paying -650 on the moneyline and laying at least 14 points. The spread has actually come down a bit since opening at a few places — and I love it.

Give me Washington to easily cover the spread here, even at 14.5 points. This Boise State team lost to UTEP on the road by 13, at Oregon State by 17, and at home to BYU by three. And then they ended the regular season by losing by 12 at home to Fresno State. 

Their schedule last season wasn’t challenging in the least, and Washington has something to prove. Penix Jr. is trying to win a Heisman. There’s nothing that tells me the Huskies won’t run up the score in this one, and with Latrell Caples out for the Broncos, they’re going to struggle mightily if their run game stalls.

Speaking of their run game, it’s the one thing that could impact the total here. It’s currently at 58.5 points, which is down from the open of 59.5 but up a point after dropping down to 57.5 on Monday. I’ll be staying away, but I’d lean Under here. 

I believe either Washington shuts down Boise’s run game, and they get out so far ahead they pull Penix or slow things down, and the Under comes through. Or there’s a chance the Broncos’ run game succeeds, burns some clock, and keeps the Huskies offense on the sideline, allowing the Under to cash. 

Boise State vs Washington betting trend to know

The Under is 4-0 in Boise State’s last four games on the road. Find more college football betting trends for Boise State vs Washington.

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