The Quick Lane Bowl features the 6-6 Independent New Mexico State Aggies meeting the 6-6 Bowling Green State Falcons of the MAC.
This should be an entertaining matchup between the Aggies' triple-option and the Falcons' passing game.
Who will be crowned Quick Lane Bowl champion? Read our college football picks and predictions for Bowling Green vs. New Mexico State below to find out.
Bowling Green vs New Mexico State best odds
Bowling Green vs New Mexico State picks and predictions
With the Over/Under set below 50, I'm all in on the Over.
New Mexico State's starting signal-caller Diego Pavia hit the transfer portal, leaving freshman Gavin Frakes to run the triple option. Frakes has run for 143 yards and a pair of touchdowns with 736 yards and four scores coming through the air.
Running backs Star Thomas and Jamoni Jones have combined for 845 yards and 11 TDs and will round out the triple option. Frakes has seven players with 100 or more receiving yards, but the primary weapons are wideouts Justice Powers and Kordell David.
NMSU and its triple option is going to cause Bowling Green fits. The Falcons rank 10th in the MAC in rushing defense and they have yet to see this type of offense. They surrendered 33 points per game and the Aggies could score that many against a defense unaccustomed to facing the triple option.
Bowling Green can also put points on the board. Senior QB Matt McDonald has thrown for 2,639 yards with 22 scoring strikes and eight picks. He threw three interceptions in his final regular season game against Ohio but has wideout Odieu Hilaire as his significant play threat with 54 receptions and seven TDs.
The Falcons have a pedestrian ground game and have rushed for just eight TDs this season. New Mexico State appears to play good defense, but their schedule was weak, and Bowling Green should be able to take to the air and find the end zone.
Simply put, the Falcons are going to struggle with the triple option. New Mexico State offers the three-pronged attack of now you see it, now you don’t style of offense that will be difficult to stop.
The Falcons haven’t stopped the run all season, and I don’t expect that to start here. Bowling Green should be able to return the fire with a few scores of their own, turning this into a back-and-forth scoring affair.
McDonald is coming off of a stinker, but he will punish the Aggies through the air, and help send this game Over the total.
My best bet: Over 48 (-110 at Caesars)
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Bowling Green vs New Mexico State spread analysis
The Falcons are listed as slim 3.5-point favorites and I expect them to cover that spread.
The triple option will be challenging to stop, but NMSU also played the easiest schedule in the country, and some of the impressive offensive numbers they’ve posted might be skewed. The Aggies will get theirs, but it won’t be enough to cover the spread.
The Aggies also posted impressive defensive numbers, but again, their strength of schedule doesn’t instill much confidence. McDonald can sling it and I don’t believe New Mexico State will be able to slow down the Falcons' offense.
New Mexico State is a turnover-prone offense — ranked 116th in turnover margin — facing a Bowling Green offense with as many giveaways as takeaways. It's easy to expect a turnover or two deep in their own end of the field and Bowling Green taking advantage of it.
I just can’t get past the Aggies' strength of schedule. The offense will move the ball but it won't be enough to cover the spread.
Bowling Green vs New Mexico State Over/Under analysis
I've discussed the Over in the best bet section above but I've got some additional notes here as well.
Despite the Aggies' weak schedule, the offense should play confidently after scoring 114 points over their last two contests. The Falcons' defense is one of the worst in the country and I expect the Aggies to score well into the 20s.
The Falcons' defense allowed 113 points over their past three contests, which bodes well for this contest climbing Over the total.
The Over was 6-6 in the Aggies' 12 contests, but Over was 7-4-1 in the Falcons' contests this season.
In-play microbetting trends for New Mexico State vs Bowling Green
The best betting sites for microbetting college football (with their odds powered by Simplebet):
Here are the next drive results when each team started at the 25-yard line (for all drives available to bet) for both the two-way betting market and the four-way betting market:
New Mexico State
Offensive score Yes: 6/45 (13.3%)
Offensive score No: 39/45 (86.7%)
Punts: 28/45 (62.2%)
TDs: 5/45 (11.1%)
FG attempts: 2/45 (4.4%)
TOs: 10/45 (22.2%)
New Mexico State had four drives that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.
Bowling Green
Offensive score Yes: 4/31 (12.9%)
Offensive score No: 27/31 (87.1%)
Punts: 17/31 (54.8%)
TDs: 4/31 (12.9%)
FG attempts: 1/31 (3.2%)
TOs: 9/31 (29%)
Bowling Green had two drives that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.
Bowling Green vs New Mexico State betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0 int he Aggies' last four games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Bowling Green vs. New Mexico State.
Bowling Green vs New Mexico State game info
| Location: | Ford Field, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Monday, December 26, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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Bowling Green vs New Mexico State weather
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