Midweek MACtion draws to a close this Tuesday night as two underwhelming teams duel for the opportunity to end the season on a high note.
Buffalo has stumbled in Year One post-Lance Leipold, sitting at 4-7 and losing three straight. Ball State (5-6) won the MAC a year ago but needs a win Tuesday night to reach bowl eligibility.
Are 6.5 points too many, or will the home team pull through and end the season with a convincing win?
Check out our free college football betting picks and predictions for the Buffalo Bulls vs. the Ball State Cardinals on Tuesday, November 23 to find out.
Buffalo vs Ball State odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The line has mostly remained steady at Ball State -6.5, although it has dropped to -6 at some books. The total opened at 58.5, where it remains at the time of this writing. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Buffalo vs Ball State predictions
Predictions made on 11/22/2021 at 7:12 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2021 college football season, here are two of the best welcome bonuses available:
USA: Sign up with Caesars and get your first bet matched up to $1,001! Claim Now
Canada: Get a 100%-matched sign-up bonus (up to $400) at BetVictor. Claim Now
Buffalo vs Ball State game info
• Location: Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, IN
• Date: Tuesday, November 23, 2021
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN+
Buffalo vs Ball State betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Buffalo: Kyle Vantrease QB (Out), Jovany Ruiz WR (Out), Max Michel DE (Questionable), Taylor Riggins DE (Questionable).
Ball State: Justin Hall WR (Questionable), Tye Evans RB (Out), Dylan Koch TE (Out), Kaleb Slaven OL (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two schools. Find more NCAA betting trends for Buffalo vs. Ball State.
Buffalo vs Ball State picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Both of these teams have been underwhelming in 2021, so we won’t sugarcoat it and puff up either squad too much. The Bulls are only 3-7-1 ATS, while the Cardinals are 3-8 ATS, and both teams are being badly outgained — the Bulls by a full yard per play, the Cardinals not far behind at 0.8 (5.2 yards per play offensively, 6.0 allowed defensively).
Buffalo’s method of attack is centered around a rushing game gaining nearly 200 yards per game, ranking 29th in the country. The Bulls should expect to move the ball against a Ball State defense ranking 98th in stopping the run, allowing 171.8 yards per game. Most recently, Ball State allowed Lew Nichols and Central Michigan to run wild with 285 yards and three scores on the ground. The week before, Northern Illinois racked up 211 yards rushing along with two scores.
With nearly a full-season sample size to work with, it’s clear that the Cardinals have regressed on offense (34.2 points per game in 2020, 24.8 this year). The only thing they’ve done well is limit turnovers. Other than that, they rank outside of the top-85 in all yardage categories and have managed only a 42% success rate.
The Bulls are catching nearly a full touchdown of points for some reason, so they're the side.
Prediction: Buffalo +6.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Ball State has been trending to the Under, cashing in each of its last 4 games. The rushing attack ranks 86th in the country and the passing attack is even worse (97th). Will they be able to score against a miserable Buffalo defense allowing 30.8 points per game? Sure they will, but it’s difficult to forecast an offensive explosion when there have been few signs of life for the Cardinals. The Under has cashed in 8 of their 11 games.
We’re more confident in Buffalo’s ability to move the ball offensively against a Ball State defense that has allowed over 7 yards per play in two of its last three games. That being said, more rushing attempts leads to a quicker game with the clock churning. The Bulls have over 50 rushing attempts in four games this season and will look to make it a fifth if they can stick to the game plan.
Prediction: Under 58.5 (-110)
Best bet
The Ball State of last year isn’t walking out of that tunnel. It's simply too many points for an underwhelming team even if its opponent hasn't been all that impressive, either.
The Cardinals have been vastly overvalued in the betting market all season long, sitting at just 3-8 ATS. We’ll hope to profit off the overvaluation in what may be our last opportunity in 2021.
Pick: Buffalo +6.5 (-110)
Did you know that if you parlayed our Buffalo vs. Ball State picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?
Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
